L R AS Published on Wednesday 21 September 2022 - n° 416 - Categories:News of the Month
This week's highlights, as of 19 September 2022
The main point
The European Commission's proposal to claw back "super-profits
As winter approaches and gas consumption rises, the European Commission is proposing to reduce demand and recover considerable amounts of money that would have been taken from European consumers. It proposes to give it back to them in the form of aid or subsidies.
There is no guarantee that the amount announced will match the amount collected. There is no guarantee that the winter will go by without power cuts. The considerable increase in the price of electricity is a drain on household purchasing power and disrupts businesses: A European recession is very possible following the unfortunate European embargo on Russia.
We need to take a better look at what the European Commission's proposal is all about.
A look at the European Commission's proposal for the coming crisis
1st important point :
The PP2 tender, rooftop installation
Urbasolar, Neoen and Unit-e won more than half of the awards. Prices increased by 6.6% in the last tender and by 9.4% in the February 2021 tender
The French PP2 tender, rooftop installation
2nd sub-point :
Photovoltaic windows, a missing link in buildings
Research into electricity-generating windows is essential because they would increase the production capacity of a building and increase the potential for self-consumption by a household or business. Developments in this area need to be closely monitored
Transparent windows using organic photovoltaic materials
3rd (subsidiary) point (subsidiary) :
The Commission's measures: caution, misunderstanding?
Few commentators have ventured to comment on the Commission's measures.
The Commission's measures according to PV Tech
Rystad Energy does not believe in the Commission's levy base
Other interesting points :
Future measures for collective and individual self-consumption in France
EU target of 45% RE by 2030, but no one is committing to results
L R AS Published on Tuesday 13 September 2022 - n° 415 - Categories:News of the Month
What to remember this week, as of 11 September 2022
The main point
The most serious commentators (INSEE, Banque de France, IFO, Bundesbank in Germany) are very pessimistic. They warn of the consequences of price increases, whether for energy, manufactured goods, food, etc. They warn about the low revaluation of salaries and the significant loss of purchasing power of the population.
This difficult period, which will end in 2024 at the earliest, or at the end of the war in Ukraine, must be used to review in depth the habits, beliefs and objectives that were previously set. This is because the certainties of availability, practicality and economic conditions (interest rates) have changed. It is best to take a moment to study the changes and see how to adapt to them. This is necessary in order to emerge from this approaching crisis in good conditions.
First important point: the price of lithium, which is essential for the production of batteries, has increased sixfold in 2022 and ninefold since January 2021. It is scarce; it is of increasingly lower quality. It will slow down the spread of batteries and electric vehicles. Other battery components seem to be just as difficult to obtain
Recycled battery materials are being sought because primary products are too expensive
Secondly, it is surprising that the new American law, promulgated less than a month ago, is generating so much enthusiasm, vocation and eagerness on the part of photovoltaic manufacturers. Not a week goes by without new capacity increases or factory openings being announced! Impressive.
Two more benefits of the new US law for Heliene and PV Hardware
3rd (subsidiary) point (subsidiary) The Commission has a new idea to try to limit public discontent and even avoid a serious social crisis: taxing "super-profits". It is hard to see where they would be in photovoltaics. The President of the Commission, after having brilliantly lit the fire of Russian gas prices and price increases in the Union with her embargo, is still trying to distinguish herself.
The European Commission proposes to impose a maximum price on renewable electricity
Other interesting points :
LThe sunny summer has increased the share of solar in the European energy mix
A near-certain energy supply shortfall in Europe for Rystad Energy
L R AS Published on Tuesday 6 September 2022 - n° 414 - Categories:News of the Month
This week's highlights, as of 4 September
The main point
The Defence Council in France was held in secret. Nothing leaked. All we know is that there is nothing to worry about, that the government is there. Yet several public bodies have been sounding the alarm for several months, indicating that the situation is serious. Despite the government's silence, gas and electricity prices are rising, indicating a deteriorating situation. The situation is deteriorating, with price rises becoming more widespread, inflation at its highest level in decades and interest rates rising. This leads to a very likely recession without even rationing of gas and electricity supplies. This affects all French people, all Europeans, all because of the clumsy sanctions taken by the European Commission which is now silent. The damage is done and well done!
1st important point: the Energy Regulatory Commission had to revise the specifications of the tenders to adapt to the increases in costs and prices
Updating of the specifications of the 17 French calls for tenders
2nd secondary point: The rise in energy prices is not only bad: the sale of wind-generated electricity on the market means that the State does not have to buy this energy and that savings are made.Hence the contribution of renewable energies in 2022, which will be reflected in the 2023 budget.
For the first time, renewable energies will contribute to the state budget in 2023
3rd (subsidiary) point point (subsidiary) :
Another high in the price of silicon
Is this the end of the silicon price rise? Chinese authorities are asking for it
Other interesting points :
Result of the so-called PPE2 tender
L R AS Published on Tuesday 30 August 2022 - n° 413 - Categories:News of the Month
This week's highlights, as of 28 August 2022
The bottom line:
The US law finds a way to counter Chinese PV products and provides a boost to installers, but more importantly to PV manufacturers
A look at the upheaval brought about by the Inflation Reduction Act
1st important point :
Several voices question the capacity for installation of solar power plants in Europe in the years 2024 and 2025
pvXchange questions the future of PV in Germany
Growing disincentives for power plant installations, especially in 2024 and 2025
Europe will deploy almost 40 GW in 2022. What happens next?
2nd sub-point :
Chinese PV production (silicon, wafers, panels) increased by about 50% -by half- in the first half of the year. PV export volume doubled in value
Chinese PV exports and production in the first half of the year
Other interesting points :
Feed-in tariff increase and changes to the S21 tariff decree in France
The inverter market in 2021 and SMA's dropout
Neoen in Q2: considerable effort in power plant construction
L R AS Published on Sunday 10 July 2022 - n° 412 - Categories:News of the Month
This week's highlights, as of 10 July 2022
The key point
The price of silicon is rising. It goes up every month. It sets in motion a mechanism of increase. In a Western economic logic, the shortage increases the price to distribute the small quantity. The Chinese logic is quite different. You need to know it because it applies exactly to the case of silicon
1st important point: the opacity of the power purchase agreement market led to price abuses. The proposed index can shed some light on the situation. But many other issues are raised by this index or these indices
S&P Global + Pexapark: PPA benchmark index
Second point: even if it is probably only an experiment, or a result of research & development, it is considerably forward-looking. The more energy is produced in a building, the higher its self-consumption rate will be.
3rd (subsidiary) point (subsidiary) New measures tostimulate photovoltaic production could give French leaders ideas
New energy regulations in Germany
Other interesting points :
L R AS Published on Wednesday 6 July 2022 - n° 411 - Categories:News of the Month
This week's highlights, as of 3 July (No 411)
The main point
The European world is going haywire.
PvXchange has started the ball rolling: no more power plants can be built in Europe because something essential is always missing. Even residential roofs are delayed. Deliveries have an unknown date. The elements that may be supplied cannot be known! What is happening with photovoltaics is just an illustration of the current European world: it is going through a brutal inflation whose effects are still to come. The European world is going haywire.
L R AS Published on Wednesday 29 June 2022 - n° 410 - Categories:News of the Month
This week's highlights, as of 26 June (No 410)
The big picture
Four months after the invasion of Ukraine, the European situation is beginning to look more clear-cut. Almost everything has been changed or turned upside down. Disadvantages have arisen, advantages are emerging. A period of change has begun. Will we be able to choose the paths for a sustainable 21st century?
A look at the disadvantages and advantages of the war in Ukraine
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The first important point: governments cannot do everything. The association of four major photovoltaic developers to issue a call for tenders for 7 GW of panels per year, on condition that they are American-made, opens up prospects for manufacturers who know that they will have outlets and that they can invest to meet this order. This is a good way of boosting American manufacturing. An example to follow
A crucial step: a major call for tenders to stimulate industrial production
Secondary point:there are still too few renewable energy installations to satisfy the global economy. We had forgotten this with the noise of the environmentalists. The Ukrainian war has just been a brutal reminder of this
According to BloombergNEF, fossil fuels are quite useful in the face of Russian gas
3rd point point (subsidiary) The construction of solar power plants takes time, several semesters from conception to operation. The speed of recent changes (covid, Ukraine, rising panel prices, rising interest rates) has changed the parameters for project development. Two trade unions reported the difficulties of some companies that have not included a price indexation clause in their contract. They have to either postpone or stop their construction
The downturn in the PV economy is hindering or interrupting some PV installations
Other interesting points :
Akuo in 2021: multiple achievements, but stable turnover and EBITDA
L R AS Published on Wednesday 22 June 2022 - n° 409 - Categories:News of the Month
This week's highlights, as of 19 June (n°409)
The most important point: The European Commission must decide whether lithium is dangerous. Will it ban it or allow it?
Lithium has become a major ingredient in the batteries of electric vehicles to provide endurance, speed and therefore practicality. However, the danger of lithium to human life has just been highlighted. The European Commission is seized of the problem. It has to decide. What is the situation?
L R AS Published on Wednesday 15 June 2022 - n° 408 - Categories:News of the Month
This week's highlights, as of 12 June (n°408)
The main point
The major news this week is US President Biden's decision to lift tariff restrictions on panel imports from South East Asia. This decision is in line with the installer lobby, but it takes away the prospect of rebuilding a panel production industry on US soil.
L R AS Published on Wednesday 8 June 2022 - n° 407 - Categories:News of the Month
This week's highlights, as of 29 May (No 407)
The main point
The economic and financial conditions in the photovoltaic field have completely reversed compared to two years ago. Everything has changed. The price of silicon, and therefore of panels, and the price of metals have risen dramatically. The freight rate is four times higher than before Covid. Electricity prices are nothing like they were twelve months ago! What does this mean for the industry (developers, builders, manufacturers, subcontractors)?
1st incidental point: China will double its PV installations in 2022 over 2021, absorbing an additional 53 GW. High demand will continue
China to double its wind and solar capacity by 2025
2nd accessory point: The American company AES has developed a panel installation robot. This cuts installation time in half and avoids repetitive movements
First automated panel installation robot
3rd (subsidiary) point (subsidiary) WoodMac discusses what would be needed for Europe to have a photovoltaic industry that meets its needs
What is missing to revive the PV production sector in Europe!
Other interesting points :
Modification of the Horizeo project (1 GWp)
France commissioned 484 MW of solar in Q1 compared to 736 MW a year ago.
Price increases for battery materials create uncertainty for EV sales
L R AS Published on Tuesday 31 May 2022 - n° 406 - Categories:News of the Month
This week's highlights, as of 29 May
The most important point : Covid was treated in Shanghai by a severe lockdown for several weeks. Workers could not get to the factory, production could not be shipped, goods could not be loaded onto ships. A few weeks later, this led to supply difficulties in Europe. Wholesalers do not know when they will be delivered, for how much, at what price. Developers are running out of panels. The shortage of electronic chips interrupts the production of inverters and batteries. Hence :
A look at the supply difficulties of the photovoltaic sector
L R AS Published on Wednesday 25 May 2022 - n° 405 - Categories:News of the Month
What to remember this week, as of 22 May 2022
The main point
The week was marked by the publication of the European Commission's REPowerEU programme. It focuses on renewable energies to replace Russian gas, on the training of qualified personnel, on accelerating the authorisation of power plant installations and, secondarily, on supporting manufacturers by developing research and development. Hence the presentation texts
L R AS Published on Tuesday 17 May 2022 - n° 404 - Categories:News of the Month
This week's highlights, as of 15 May
The main point
The European Commission is expected to present its roadmap for tackling the EU's dependence on Russian gas, and to steer countries towards what is being called the green transition with more renewable electricity and a limitation or halt in fossil fuel consumption. But will it be able to avoid noisy and ill-advised advice? BloombergNEF (Two scenarios for Europe's energy transition according to BloombergNEF) has presented the two alternatives, which are discussed below.
A look at an energy transition that is off to a bad start
Item1: Report on the Intersolar Europe trade fair in Munich
Two magazines presented their vision of this event
Live from Intersolar on day 3 by PV Tech
Live from Intersolar on day 2 by PV Tech
The 1st day of Intersolar Europe according to PV Magazine
The 2nd day of Intersolar Europe according to PV Magazine
and
In short, hardware or software presented at Intersolar :
2nd side issue: The power purchase agreements in March combine both the war in Ukraine and an increase in electricity prices. This was reflected in the business in Ukraine's neighbouring countries and in the conclusion of contracts in Western Europe
What is the effect of the war in Ukraine on the PPAs
The pace of PPAs signed in Europe slowed down in March
Issue 3 point (subsidiary) 3rd point (subsidiary): In France, the rising costs of PV components lead the outgoing government to announce a freeze and then an indexation for installations under 500 kW
Tariff freeze for installations under 500 kW, then indexation
Other interesting points :
Is solar competitive in terms of cost and sustainability compared to other energies?
L R AS Published on Tuesday 17 May 2022 - n° 454 - Categories:News of the Month
Highlights of the week to 27 August
Highlight The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act is of considerable importance both for renewable energies and for the U.S. economy as a whole.
The US Inflation Reduction Act was introduced in mid-August 2022. It was well received at the time. It is still at the root of many investment decisions in the United States. Projects are multiplying; money is spreading throughout the economy; all regions feel stimulated. This law has transformed the country's future.
L R AS Published on Wednesday 20 April 2022 - n° 402 - Categories:News of the Month
This week's highlights, as of 17 April
The main pointis the upcoming increase in the price of panels.
The Chinese have figured out how to deal with the silicon shortage to increase panel prices: claim that more production is not possible, that there is a shortage of silicon during 2021, and then publish a 46% increase in panel production (according to official Chinese figures: Chinese production in 2021, by value and volume).For this to have been achieved, more silicon must have been produced because of losses at every stage of a panel's production. A little forced, a little chosen, the congestion of the ports will be mentioned in a few months, the time when the ships cannot leave the Chinese ports because of the quarantine in Shanghai and Ningbo. Already, JinkoSolar and the China Non-Ferrous Metal Association are warning that panel prices will rise. As the pandemic will only last a short time, the public is being prepared for further shortages of components essential to panel production (junction boxes, glass sheet, insufficient ethylene for the production of EVA, etc.). All it takes is a good organisation to ensure that the world is forced to pay much more for each panel. This is what will happen.
A look at the new surge in panel prices that is coming
Incidental point1: the pandemic is disrupting economic life in China. The authorities are relying on containment to stop the spread of covid 19, but the contagion is large and difficult to control. Arrival at the ports of Shanghai and Ningbo were blocked, with ships queuing up but unable to be loaded.
Road blockages and port congestion in China
2nd ancillary point: LevelTen gives an overview of the cheapest 25% of power purchase agreements in Europe. They differ by region
Evolution of power purchase agreements in Q1 2022
3rd point point (subsidiary) :
Bouygues wants to accelerate the construction of PV plants
Other interesting points :
Panels in Europe can have a VAT rate between 0 and 5%.