L R AS Published on Tuesday 6 June 2023 - n° 448 - Categories:News of the Month
Things to remember from the week to 4 June 2023
The key point Lower prices in the industry are changing the behaviour of manufacturers and buyers (developers)
The overproduction of silicon from the fourth quarter of 2022 has reversed the trend in prices in the photovoltaic industry. Many manufacturers did not anticipate this phenomenon and continued to produce as before. However, when prices fall due to overproduction, buyer behaviour changes considerably. They avoid buying or they postpone their purchases because they know they will be able to obtain goods on better terms at a later date. This contributes to creating stocks and losses for manufacturers.
A look at falling prices in the PV sector
L R AS Published on Tuesday 30 May 2023 - n° 447 - Categories:Ce qu'il faut retenir de cette semaine
Ce qu'il faut retenir de cette semaine au 28 mai 2023
Le point en évidence : quelle est l'ampleur de la baisse des prix au terme de cinq mois dans la filière photovoltaïque ?
On parle beaucoup de la baisse des cours depuis le début de l’année ! Nous avons examiné comment et où cette baisse se manifestait. Nous avons comparé les moyennes publiées par les trois bureaux d’études qui publient chaque semaine les cours pour le silicium, les plaquettes, les cellules et les panneaux entre le 14 décembre 2022 et le 24 mai 2023. Le comparatif entre ces trois origines différentes n’a pas conduit à des divergences importantes. Surtout une tendance s’affirme : la forte baisse du silicium durant ces cinq mois s’atténue au fur et à mesure qu’on se rapproche du panneau final.
Regard sur le recul des cours en 2023 de la filière PV
L R AS Published on Tuesday 23 May 2023 - n° 446 - Categories:News of the Month
What to remember this week to 21 May 2023
The main point The two photovoltaic plant projects highlight the weaknesses of the French approach
Listening to the reactions to the remarks made by the President of the Republic on the occasion of the relaunch of the industrialisation of France, one wonders what kind of world we are living in. Or rather, the content of the PV projects presented is intriguing. It seems that words are more important than action, that speeches avoid organising daily life, that the presentation of projects is more important than their realisation. We look at the words, but not at the people who say them. No attempt is made to determine whether the professional quality is sufficient to achieve the objective, the project, the mission. They don't want to judge relevance, but rely solely on the eloquence of the speaker. And we want to save money? 284
A look at the two photovoltaic plant projects
1st important point The article describes the differences in irradiation and wind conditions between European countries. They are not subject to the same climatic conditions! 337
Differences in production and prices in Europe in May 2023
2nd secondary point A study considers two different photovoltaic installations installed in the same location 16 years ago. It examines how the panels have aged ? 319
The deterioration of PV systems over 15 years old
3rd point (subsidiary) The speed at which prices have fallen in the industry is impressive. Is this the result of silicon overproduction? 2027
Price cuts are spreading throughout the industry.
Other interesting points :
What are we to make of McKinsey's opinion: Will there be enough land in Europe to install PV power stations? 212
Can we reduce or eliminate intermittency by increasing our knowledge of it? New tools are needed to counterbalance intermittency
L R AS Published on Tuesday 16 May 2023 - n° 445 - Categories:PV Watch, News of the Month
What to remember this week on 14 May 2023
The point in evidence The point: will France and Europe have too many battery production plants?
Mr Macron was particularly pleased to be able to announce the installation of two battery production units in northern France. He was even beaming.
These two new units are in addition to all those that have announced their arrival in Europe. In February 2022, there were already 35 of them. The number has grown since then. Their long-term survival depends on the agreement with one or more electric vehicle manufacturers and on the supply of raw materials. This rush of battery manufacturers into the European market will considerably increase the demand for components and metals. Two questions arise: will there be enough supply to satisfy the purchases of these factories? And secondly, will the price of these batteries be sufficiently reduced for buyers to be tempted by electric vehicles?
A look at the announcement of two new battery production units in France
1st important point VDMA provides a relevant perspective on the PV industry
Some aspects of the PV industry by VDMA
Secondary point 2 There are two phases in the technological advancement of photovoltaics in particular: A research phase that can last several years. Once progress has been made, such as a 22% - 23% conversion rate by 2022-2023, developers take over to move from a few square centimetres to a 2m² panel or more. Meanwhile, new research avenues are being explored to determine the solution(s) to be pursued
The effectiveness of PV research: moving towards implementation of successes
3rd point (subsidiary) Batteries for electric vehicles are subject to the availability of raw materials. The price of raw materials will determine the production cost of the battery and therefore the success or failure of electric vehicles.
Lithium salt has been falling for several months and is starting to recover
Other interesting points :
Is there a match between energy production and demand in industry?
The choice to replace Russian gas: a bad decision?
L R AS Published on Wednesday 10 May 2023 - n° 444 - Categories:News of the Month
What to remember this week on 7 May 2023
The point in evidence A worldwide comparison of the cost of financing power plants
The secret of financing and profitability of solar and wind power plants is largely well kept, at least in France. It is therefore an event to have an international study that gives figures, even if they date back to 2020. Unfortunately, the war in Ukraine and the rise in energy prices have subsequently diminished the interest of the IRENA study.
It appears that the financing rate of power plants is quite different from one country to another, and depends on the technology.
Is this a cause or a consequence? The financing rate appears to be lower in countries where many plants have been installed. It seems that the lower the rate, the easier the financing! A rate of 1%, 5% or 10% for the construction of a plant creates a different situation.
L R AS Published on Monday 1 May 2023 - n° 443 - Categories:News of the Month
What to remember this week on 30 April 2023
The point in evidence Germany is creating the conditions for renewed economic dynamism
There is a convergence between the decisions of the German government, which wants to turn the page on gas, coal and nuclear power in favour of renewable energies, and a population that has suffered from high electricity prices and wants to reduce the burden of its energy bill.
This convergence leads to a large number of decisions to reduce the cost of photovoltaics on the one hand, and a public opinion that supports the national objective on the other hand, not only out of patriotism, but out of self-interest to reduce the energy bill. This has led to a series of political decisions in this direction, a research and development policy exemplified by Fraunhofer, and a strong domestic demand that combines panels and storage, the use of heat pumps, etc.
This combination, which will reduce the cost of energy and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, will provide Germany with a central position in the European Union through the revival of the photovoltaic industry. Germany's weight will do the rest, as a driving force in the European economy. The result will be the emergence of the central political player in the Union.
A look at photovoltaics in Germany
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1st important point The first important point is that there are very few PPAs in Europe in thefirst quarter. Is this related to the time lag between the signature date and the commissioning date of the power plants?
PPA contracts in Europe in Q1 according to Pexapark
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2nd secondary point A professional indicates, with figures to back it up, the advantages of replacing a gas boiler with a heat pump.
Case study of a heat pump heating system for a house in Germany
3rd point (subsidiary) 3rd point (subsidiary): This is the fourth or fifth American presentation of panel installation equipment in large plants. This succession indicates the preoccupation of professionals who want to reduce the number of personnel and increase the rate of installation. This mechanisation movement will come to France.
Another system of mechanisation
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Other interesting points :
Has enough been done to study agrivoltaics or should we also look at other kinds of installations?
After fixed panels for agri-voltaics, will concentrated panels soon be available?
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Two companies want to install green hydrogen production and ask an expert to analyse it!
In the United States, green hydrogen projects could be profitable
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Viessmann sells its heat pump business
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Enercoop follows the path of any distributor: it starts by finding customers and then seeks to control its supplies:
Enercoop is developing a renewable energy production activity
L R AS Published on Tuesday 25 April 2023 - n° 442 - Categories:News of the Month
This week's highlights, to 23 April 2023
Highlight Germany to present its industrial recovery plan for Europe
Every week, new announcements are made about the creation of renewable energy plants in the United States. All the world's industrialists want to share in the cake that is being presented as part of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The industrial, but above all economic and social, spin-offs will be considerable. The prospects for renewal, dynamism and potential are staggering.
On the other hand, the European Commission has failed to draw up its industrial recovery plan: too little, badly put together, of no interest. As a result, it has taken refuge in managing details and setting up a paralysing administration.
Germany has launched a feasibility study on rebuilding its photovoltaic industry (in particular), which will be presented and discussed at Intersolar in June. So is this the industrial plan that Europe is waiting for?
A look at the photovoltaic awakening in the US, will it be followed by a European awakening?
L R AS Published on Monday 17 April 2023 - n° 441 - Categories:Ce qu'il faut retenir de cette semaine
Ce qu'il faut retenir de cette semaine, au 16 avril 2023
Le point en évidence :
Ces deux dernières années, le photovoltaïque a été dominé par une pénurie de silicium, donc par une hausse des prix. Ce n’est qu’en fin d’année 2022, que les prix ont commencé à baisser sous l’effet de la mise en service de nouvelles unités de production. On peut s’attendre à une normalisation tant du silicium que des autres composantes de la filière du fait de l’émergence encore embryonnaire de concurrents aux Etats-Unis et en Inde
L R AS Published on Wednesday 12 April 2023 - n° 440 - Categories:Ce qu'il faut retenir de cette semaine
Ce qu'il faut retenir de cette semaine, au 9 avril 2023
Le point en évidence :
La guerre en Ukraine et la dépendance envers le gaz russe ont incité la Commission européenne à imposer un plan de développement des énergies renouvelables. La concordance de cette guerre avec la sortie du confinement covid a perturbé le comparatif des installations 2021 et 2022. Seulement, c’est sur ce comparatif qu’ont été fixés les objectifs européens d’installation des énergies renouvelables pour 2025 et surtout pour 2030. Sont-ils fiables ?
Surtout, mis à part la Commission et le parlement européen, qui est prêt à s’engager pour la réussite de ces objectifs ?
Regard sur l’aspiration des populations européennes en matière de PV
L R AS Published on Monday 3 April 2023 - n° 439 - Categories:News of the Month
This week's highlights, as of 2 April 2023
Highlight :
All economic, social or health crises are periods of rupture. Covid is a good example, but the new world that emerges from the crisis is not always noticeable at the time. Instead, it appears some time later. Whether or not covid was a consequence of the crisis, the photovoltaic world was shaken by production difficulties, by delays in delivery, by the Chinese game to increase prices and profit margins.
L R AS Published on Tuesday 28 March 2023 - n° 438 - Categories:News of the Month
This week's highlights, as of 26 March 2023
The point in focus
The photovoltaic world is primarily interested in the production and installation of panels and in national electricity production statistics. It rarely looks at the results of these installations, particularly in terms of consumption. France urbaine, Enedis and GRDF had the idea of presenting the evolution of renewable energies in the metropolises, agglomeration communities and urban communities in which 45% of French people live. The idea is that the emergence of renewable energies is also at work in these areas, and that city councillors are seeking to develop their installations to avoid the use of fossil fuels
These three organisations draw up an overview of energy consumption and production in 69 urban areas. This overview extends the first edition from 2017, with data from 2021.
1st important point: a symposium brought together panel buyers to explain their purchasing motivation
What do panel buyers pay attention to?
Secondary point 2:rising interest rates are reducing the volume of global activity and possibly creating a recession. As a result, there is less need for raw materials. Prices fall
Metal prices at rock bottom on fear of a global recession
3rd point point (subsidiary) 3rd point (subsidiary): A change in the tender regulations renders the wind and probably the PV tenders invalid
Onshore wind tender rejected, PV tender uncertain.
Other interesting points The 2022 results of companies
Voltalia in 2022: pause last year, favourable 2023 forecast, disappointing 2027 forecast
Meyer Burger in 2022: continues to grow
RWE in 2022: generates about 70% of its results from renewable energies
L R AS Published on Monday 20 March 2023 - n° 437 - Categories:News of the Month
This week's highlights, as of 19 March 2023
The point in focus
The rise in interest rates has already led to the failure of several US banks, which are seeing their investments in Treasury bonds depreciate. One of them, Silicon Valley Bank, the 16th largest in the US, has fallen victim to social networking. As it was internationalised, it is passing on its failure to banks in different countries which will suffer losses. At the same time, the banking world will be temporarily more cautious, more careful about borrowers, more demanding about credit conditions. Photovoltaics will lose out
A look aton the consequences for photovoltaics of the failure of an American bank
1st important point :
This is the first announcement that perovskite technology can be commercialised. No doubt that other manufacturers will
will soon announce that they also have this technology
A first: Ascent Solar switches to perovskite technology
2nd secondary point :
Aurora Solar presents the parts of a PV installation that can deviate from normality
Why do the advertised performances of panels or systems not match the reality?
3rd point (subsidiary) :
The process is simple and effective, but probably difficult to industrialise
Increasing the efficiency of ICS films that direct light into HJT panels
Other interesting points :
European Commission proposes electricity market reform; Further presentation on electricity market reform
Floating installation in the Mediterranean off the coast of Sète
False expectations of prosumers
L R AS Published on Wednesday 15 March 2023 - n° 436 - Categories:News of the Month
This week's highlights, as of 12 March 2023
The point in focus
A careful observer is constantly being asked to make announcements of new production units in Chinese photovoltaics, new plans for capacity increases that sometimes follow each other at intervals of two or three months. At the risk of believing that it is the same announcement repeated with a delay!
It is only a question of a well-planned organisation that anticipates a growth in demand and provides for a safety margin that is often double the manufacturing volume
L R AS Published on Tuesday 7 March 2023 - n° 435 - Categories:News of the Month
This week's highlights, as of 5 March 2023
The point in evidence: recent history of silicon
The Chinese government saw the value of photovoltaics before the rest of the world and organised a control of this sector of activity. They helped, financed and organised the various stages of panel production. Above all, they perceived that control of the upstream (silicon and wafers) allowed them to control the downstream (production of cells and panels). From then on, they allowed a few small panel assembly activities to develop, as if to make people forget their control over the entire industry, while having the possibility of limiting or restricting the expansion of these mini-companies.
The article describes how the Chinese have managed to organise their domination, to take advantage of their hegemony. Only this domination is attracting backlash from India and the US.
The Chinese silicon cartel has its best days behind it
1st important point: investigations follow one another and all come to the same conclusions: the announced yield of the panels is not the one observed
A new analysis indicates a 3% loss on solar panels
2nd secondary point: On the strength of their success in revising contracts signed before 2010
French RE actors have filed a petition for annulment, regarding the sharing of super profits
3rd (subsidiary) point point (subsidiary) Several companies have had an excellent year in 2022
A flood of orders in 2022 at First Solar
Array in 2022: excellent year
Soltec in 2022: good year
Other interesting points :
CRE publishes new tariffs and premiums until 30 April
L R AS Published on Tuesday 28 February 2023 - n° 434 - Categories:News of the Month
This week's highlights, as of 26 February
The point in evidence
Various Chinese official bodies have just published the data for the photovoltaic industry for the year 2022. This is the first year that the data has been published in a systematic way. An effort has been made by the Chinese administration to present the data in a systematic way, but as the data comes from different bodies, some gross errors have crept into the figures. Some of them have been detected. The most important thing is that we can now get an idea of the Chinese PV industry at the end of last year.
The first important point is that it was announced that large silicon production units would start operating at the end of 2022. What is the point if there is collusion between producers?
Slight increase in silicon prices
2nd secondary point: byentering into long-term supply agreements for silicon and wafers, Meyer Burger facilitates the installation and development of producers. It completes the autonomy of its sector
Meyer Burger is building a European PV industry!
3rd (subsidiary) point (subsidiary) 2nd point: the Atlantic photovoltaic business has had to face supply difficulties, but also the effects of the forced labour law, as well as the threat of import duties due to product circumvention
Large-scale plants installed in 2022 in the US
Other interesting points :
Commission's industrial plan gets lukewarm reception
pvXchange wonders about upcoming panel price developments
By 2022, European solar and wind production has overtaken gas production
