L R AS Published on Tuesday 15 March 2022 - n° 397 - Categories:Thread of the Week
The Week in Review n° 397
THIS WEEK'S NEWS HIGHLIGHTS.
The texts to read this week:
L R AS Published on Tuesday 8 March 2022 - n° 396 - Categories:Thread of the Week
The Week in Review n° 396
THIS WEEK'S NEWS HIGHLIGHTS.
The texts to read this week:
FRANCE :
Renewable energies are now irreversible
The collapse in the cost of renewable energy has made it more attractive than electricity from coal or gas. This situation seems to be definitive. The expansion of RE will continue. Provided that we manage to provide electricity at night without wind. Renewable energies must be able to account for more than 50% of electricity consumption.
"Renewable energies have already won," says Sébastien Clerc, CEO of Voltalia.
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L R AS Published on Monday 21 February 2022 - n° 395 - Categories:Thread of the Week
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L R AS Published on Monday 21 February 2022 - n° 394 - Categories:Thread of the Week, News of the Month
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AS Published on Monday 21 February 2022 - n° 394 - Categories:Thread of the Week
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L R AS Published on Saturday 19 February 2022 - n° 393 - Categories:Thread of the Week
Things to remember in week 393
E. Macron's opinion: the PV is in the middle of the road
In his recent speech, the President of the Republic analysed the situation very well. At the same time, he supported nuclear energy by advocating the construction of at least six nuclear reactors, with a first commissioning in 2035. At the same time, he expressed his confidence in renewable energies, presenting a target for 2050 of 100 GW of installed solar power. The President of the Republic has announced a target of 100 GW PV in 2050
Why two such different orientations?
L R AS Published on Saturday 19 February 2022 - n° 392 - Categories:Thread of the Week
Things to remember in week 392
The photovoltaic press has been reporting on three major issues this week, reports Solar News
(click on the blue links to read the whole article, or go to www.actu-solaire.fr)
A°) A first estimate of the cost of intermittency
How can we be sure that a large enough number of
L R AS Published on Saturday 19 February 2022 - n° 391 - Categories:Thread of the Week
Highlights of week 391
On the one hand, there are the climate activists who believe that not enough is being done to combat greenhouse gas emissions. emissions since the 2°C limit will be exceeded in 2050, without the planet being at "net zero" emissions
On the other side,
L R AS Published on Monday 14 February 2022 - n° 393 - Categories:Thread of the Week
The Week in Review n°393
THIS WEEK'S NEWS HIGHLIGHTS.
The texts to read this week:
FRANCE :
In an election period, fishing for votes is normal. So don't take promises as a commitment!
It's time for election promises. E. Macron would be wrong not to take advantage of it. It is not because he made a promise that he should honour it. By announcing very long-term objectives to pro-nuclear and renewable energy advocates, he has a thousand opportunities to break his word. He will have every reason to evoke new facts, new constraints. If he is reminded of his promises, if he is re-elected and says he is working on it. If he is not, he will accuse his successor of having taken bad decisions...
The President of the Republic has announced a target of 100 GW PV in 2050
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The call for tenders for rooftop PV installations has seen demand concentrated on two developers.
In the tender for the installation of solar roofs between 0.5 and 8 megawatts, two companies were awarded 60% of the auction volume. The prices remain stable compared to previous calls for tenders. New Aquitaine, with one third of the successful bids, is almost double the awards made to the next two regions (18% and 13%) with the highest number of agreements
The result of the tender for roofs from 0.5 to 8 MW (called PPE2)
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L R AS Published on Monday 7 February 2022 - n° 392 - Categories:Thread of the Week
The Week in Review n°392
THIS WEEK'S NEWS HIGHLIGHTS.
The texts to read this week:
FRANCE :
The feed-in tariff for areas up to 500 kWp
The new tariff for areas up to 500 kWp was expected. It is characterized by the stability of the purchase price compared to the previous quarter
The feed-in tariffs for the first quarter of 2022
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THE TREND
The surplus of installations to cope with intermittency is impressive
For the first time, figures have been put on the installations that need to be put in place to cope with the intermittency of solar energy production. Unlike fossil fuel power plants, which produce X MWh of power that is immediately available and corresponds to the X MWh of users (minus line losses), renewable energies are characterised by their intermittency. Therefore, if on a given day X MWh is produced, the next day only half or a third less may be produced. Additional installations are therefore needed to deal with this almost immediate and, above all, unpredictable shortfall. Batteries are therefore needed to supply energy when the sun is no longer shining, and to cope with subsequent periods when the sun is not as intense as before. California has put a price tag on the additional infrastructure that needs to be installed to ensure continued use by consumers. The surplus to be expected is impressive.
Consequence of intermittency on the volume of infrastructure to be installed!
* *
Developers would like to know the direction of panel prices in 2022 and in particular those of the second half of the year when silicon production units are expected to come on stream. Economic logic suggests that prices will fall more or less quickly by the end of 2022. The reality is that silicon manufacturers will continue to try to gain as much as possible from users by keeping the price high. The other players in the industry (wafer producers) have already "adjusted" their prices upwards in recent weeks. The silicon manufacturers, on the other hand, are backing up the start-ups with long-term sales contracts, so that not a single kilogram of silicon is left unsold and they can claim that there will be a shortage of raw material again. Daqo, which is generally well-informed, does not see prices falling in 2022.
BloombergNEF has launched into 2022 forecasts, both in price and volume, with of course a comparison to 2021. It preferred to launch a very wide forecast range for global demand as if the uncertainties or rather the difficulties of forecasting were still very great.
World photovoltaics in 2021 and 2022 in price and volume
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.PHOTOVOLTAICS :
The change from P-type to N-type should start this year and impose the new standard in 2026
N-type technology is constantly being discussed, but P-type is still the dominant technology at the beginning of 2022. It seems that the changeover will start this year under the impulse of three panel manufacturers (JinkoSolar, JA Solar and LONGi) with the help of the two big cell manufacturers (Tongwei and Aiko). This change in technology is the only way to increase the efficiency of the panels in the coming years. An explanation is given of the timetable and the evolution of the production
When and how will the transition from P-type to N-type take place?
* *
.A (downward) correction of theCO2 emitted during the production of silicon and wafers
Silicon and wafer production technology has made great strides in recent years. This results inCO2 savings that were not reflected in the assessments of five or ten years ago. Supporters of photovoltaics welcome this "discovery" or "correction". However, it does not change anything in the nuclear-solar quarrel, except that it confirms that solar energy creates less greenhouse gases than previously thought.
CO2 emissions during the production of silicon would be half as high as announced
* *
.The world is looking for new power plant sites or residential facilities
At a time when it is becoming increasingly difficult to find space to install new solar power plants, new locations are being sought, whether on lakes, reservoirs or ponds. There is also thought being given to installing panels at the place of use, i.e. in the city. However, urban agitation, pollution, and unsuitable situations are still making people think. It will be necessary to find places of installation unless another technology is used to increase the output of the panels and thus the energy produced...
What is the effect of the city on a solar panel?
The success of floating PV plants
A PV device that follows the sun to increase energy output
* *
.THE WORLD :
What is the share of solar, wind+solar, renewable energy in Europe in 2021?
A review of the production of solar, wind+solar and renewable energies in Europe compared to gas and coal. In 2021, the various renewable energies provided as much energy as fossil fuels (37% of consumption). The former are progressing slowly, the latter are regressing. Wind + solar provided only 19% of the Union's consumption in 2021. This is very little and very slow.
* *
.
In the United States, customs duties on imported panels will be maintained, and there will be freedom to import two-sided panels!
President Trump had wanted to rebuild a photovoltaic industry by introducing tariffs. His successor is maintaining these import duties for four years, but he is allowing free entry for two-sided panels, which are the most popular in the United States because they are the cheapest! Some people question the real effect of these taxes, considering that the renaissance of this industry has not taken place! Is this true? Is it wrong? What is certain is that there is hardly ever any information published on the results or the growth of production on the other side of the Atlantic
What is the degree of reconstruction of a PV industry in the US?
PV panel imports subject to tariffs, bi-facials excluded
* *
.Power purchase agreements have grown in line with global demand in 2021. US signs 2/3 of contracts
The growth of power purchase agreements (PPAs) in 2021 is comparable to the growth of global panel demand. Only in the first case, the contracts are signed, whereas the demand is translated into the operation of power plants... The centralisation of two-thirds of the signatures in the United States over-represents this region to the detriment of the rest of the world. This is because digital companies make heavy use of this long-term energy purchase. However, they are mainly domiciled in North America.
PPAs have already taken on a significant role in future installations, since the volume signed already represents one-sixth of installations, and this trend will increase in the coming years.
Global clean energy purchases by PPAs in 2021
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.
MANUFACTURERS :
Scatec has mainly managed its merger with SN Power in 2021, limiting the construction of new plants, which will have an impact on 2022
The merger at the beginning of 2021 led to a strong increase in turnover and higher EBITDA growth. However, this merger between a power plant developer and a hydroelectric dam operator has slowed down the power plant construction business in favour of an internal reorganisation. This will continue in the new financial year. It is only in the financial year 2023 that there will be a revival of growth.
Scatec in 2021: merger with SN Power
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.
Maxeon returns to sell in the US with product guarantee and insurance
To ensure its commercial return to the United States, Maxeon now guarantees its panels for forty years and backs up this claim with an insurance contract.
Maxeon to sell panels to the commercial-industrial segment in the US
* *
L R AS Published on Monday 31 January 2022 - n° 391 - Categories:Thread of the Week
The Week in Review n°391
THIS WEEK'S NEWS HIGHLIGHTS.
The texts to read this week :
.
THE TREND :
Manufacturers in the sector are raising their prices, citing high demand, the price of silicon, the cost of supplies, ...
After a first increase in the price of its wafers on 16 January (from 1% to 5% depending on the product), the world's number one manufacturer LONGi raised them again by 3 to 4% on 27 January. The world's second largest manufacturer, Zhonghuan, also raised the price of its wafers on 26 January. They justified these increases by the fact that the price of silicon had risen to its historical high.
Cell manufacturers were forced to raise their prices in response to this increase. Panel assemblers are wondering whether they can keep up. All this comes just a few days before the Chinese New Year celebrations (from1 February), which will stop all activity for several days.
New increase in the price of wafers in January by LONGi
LJanuary 26 prices; New Year celebrations approach (Tuesday, February 1)
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L R AS Published on Monday 24 January 2022 - n° 390 - Categories:Thread of the Week
The Week in Review n°390
THIS WEEK'S NEWS HIGHLIGHTS.
The texts to read this week:
FRANCE :
The Minister of Transition expresses her ambition for a carbon neutral Europe and her conception of sovereignty
The Minister for Ecological Transition is proud that "Europe will become the first carbon-neutral continent and that it will be at the forefront of the ecological transition". For her, "this is Europe's destiny".
"It is a question of sovereignty in the face of Russia, the United States and China. Ecological sovereignty means making sure that the products we import respect our environmental standards, in terms of fighting deforestation or reducingCO2 emissions.
A curious concept of a country's (political and economic) sovereignty
The Minister for Ecological Transition expressed her profession of faith
* *
In search of a different layout for PV panels
After having long certified that the panels should be oriented towards the south with a 30% inclination, some professionals are now examining other positions to determine their advantages according to the crops, according to the geographical position in relation to the equator, or even according to the plants' need for light. Hence the experimentation at ground level of the vertical position of the panels, with the aim of understanding the effects of these panels on the surrounding soil. This is the second experiment, as the first (in progress) was the collection of solar energy by these vertical panels
L R AS Published on Monday 17 January 2022 - n° 389 - Categories:Thread of the Week
le Fil de la Semaine n°389
THIS WEEK'S NEWS HIGHLIGHTS.
The texts to read this week:
FRANCE:
The one-GW power plant project is not just a project, it will open a breach in the habitof small installations
The intention of Engie, Neoen and RTE to build a one gigawatt-peak power station in the Landes region was followed by a major debate which ended in early January. Apart from the 300 MWp plant in Cestas, also in the Gironde, no other plant reaches 100 MWp. It is because the calls for tender propose surfaces of 20 to 30 MWp maximum that the price of the solar kilowatt-hour does not manage to fall below 0.05 €. Creating an area ten or fifty times larger lowers costs because there is only one designer, one order placement, one construction site. With this size, prices can be halved or more. This creates a shock in the private treaty contracts (PPAs), and also an emulation between designers to offer competitive prices in their turn.
Of course, NGOs, nature conservationists and residents living close to the power plant are very critical of this project. So there are two visions for the future of photovoltaics: either small, high-priced power plants, or highly competitive electricity that will give significant advantages to their developers and to the companies that will buy this energy.
It is not just a project, it is a future.
What kind of photovoltaics for France?
* *
.
Results of the last call for tenders on buildings
The results of the last call for tenders of the call for tenders on buildings were published in the second half of December 2021. It concerned capacities from 0.1 MWp to 0.5 MWp, and from 0.5 MWp to 8 MWp. Prices diverged from the previous call for tenders: the very small 0.1 to 0.5 MWp sizes saw their average price increase, while the prices of the larger sizes decreased slightly.
It should be noted that the four largest winners obtained almost half of the power awarded. Total, together with Amarenco, obtained 20% of the proposed megawatts of the two tranches and half of the megawatts of the very small areas.
The breakdown of the building tender AO CRE 4, tranche 13
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The price of electricity has been stabilised; the price of gas is soaring. Who to believe?
The government has seen fit to stabilise the price of electricity because it has an easy way to do so: EDF is the 84% state-owned subsidiary. Moreover, EDF produces electricity from nuclear power, which has a low price compared to the kWh obtained from gas or oil. Thus, EDF cannot refuse anything to the state and the government, especially since EDF insists on the construction of new nuclear power plants.
But stabilising the price of electricity and letting the price of gas or oil rise will give consumers the impression that everything is increasing and that the price of electricity will follow sooner or later, even if it is temporarily stable.
The government will have lost on both counts: on the one hand, the public will have the impression that there is no stopping the increases and that purchasing power is still being eroded. On the other hand, the government will have to bear the cost of this stabilisation without having obtained a political advantage!
The stabilisation of the price of electricity will not make us forget the rise in the price of gas
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The number of significant players in photovoltaics is increasing sharply
The end of the year was a deadline for a large number of negotiations. The end of the year was a deadline for a large number of negotiations: Italian oil company ENI, Eurazéo, Rubis acquire a photovoltaic developer with big ambitions. Vinci sees the solar world as close to its core business of land development. Financiers are showing their power with money, and want to participate in what is considered an El Dorado. The world of photovoltaics, which seemed to be organised around the three major groups EDF, TotalEnergies, Engie, and a few foreign groups (EnBW, Axpo, etc.), is opening up to other powerful players who will increase the number of significant players.
These newcomers must now prove themselves!
Rubis acquires 80% of the capital of Photosol
In brief acquisitions : Vinci, Eurazeo, ENI, Blackstone, KGAL, IEL
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PHOTOVOLTAIC :
Despite a disrupted economic situation, demand for PPAs has risen sharply
The price of power purchase agreements (PPAs) reflected the development of wholesale electricity prices, which reached record highs. Contract prices rose by 7.2% in Europe in the fourth quarter over the third quarter, which was already up sharply in the second quarter. In the second half of the year, the increase was 21% in Italy and 11% in Spain, which reduced the average price in the other EU countries.
There are various reasons for this: the rise in component prices, public regulations, the reduction in the number of proposals which have led to tariff inflation, and the alternative of selling energy on the more profitable wholesale market.
Both parties have found acceptable compromises: they will share the energy price increases, they index the prices to those of the market,... This explains why contract volumes have exploded in 2021, reflecting the interest of both parties
PPA prices rise again in Europe in Q4
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THE WORLD:
We are almost at the end of the deadline to phase out nuclear and coal! How do we get there now?
Promises have been made to eliminate nuclear power in Belgium, Germany... Deadlines have even been set. Only the deadline is getting closer. The alternative (renewable energies) has not been developed sufficiently to provide the energy we need. Moreover, the infrastructure has not yet been installed. So how can we phase out nuclear power when nothing is ready yet and cannot be ready in 2025 or 2030?
How to compensate for the closure of nuclear power plants in a few years?
* *
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The pace of large-scale development in 2022 in the US will still be very fast
Large-scale power plant installations are expected to increase by 39% in the US in 2022, according to the official Energy Information Administration. This strong growth will take place in some states where photovoltaics are still not very popular, such as Texas. Above all, photovoltaics will account for almost half of all new American energy installations.
Good growth expected in large-scale power plants in the United States
* *
How can we manage the closure of coal and nuclear power plants and at the same time have enough renewable energy?
Germany faces three challenges over the decade: closing the nuclear plants that provide about 11% of the country's electricity production, closing the coal plants that provide a quarter of the country's electricity before 2030, and boosting solar installations since the goal in eight years is to quadruple the installed capacity compared to that at the end of 2021 (53 GWp). We are waiting to see how the minister concerned will go about this. He knows that he has to be ambitious, creative and that all his decisions will be measured against these three challenges. The country's electricity supply, the price of energy, and also the shift from nuclear and especially coal to renewable energy are at stake. For the time being, he is working on the measures and trying not to disappoint.
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MANUFACTURERS:
SMA halves expected net profit for 2021
To settle a dispute, SMA's management prefers to pay €20-35m. The profit for the financial year 2021 will be halved. The management claims that this problem does not affect the company's ongoing recovery. We are waiting for further details on this dispute and its origin. We await with interest the forecasts that the company always provides at the beginning of the year for the financial year that has just begun.
The resolution of a dispute forces SMA to halve its 2021 profit
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Top ten panel shippers delivered 79% of global demand in 2021
The ranking of the top shippers of panels does not really change from year to year because you have to have installed production capacity for that. What is evident is the rapid growth of the top four, which stand out from the rest. They have delivered more than 20 gigawatts each, or more than half of the 191 GW delivered globally in 2021. The top ten shipped 79% of global shipments. In other news, the No. 1 supplier of two years ago, JinkoSolar, and the No. 2 supplier, JA Solar, lost further ground last year.
Top ten PV panel suppliers for 2021
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L R AS Published on Monday 10 January 2022 - n° 388 - Categories:Thread of the Week
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L R AS Published on Monday 13 December 2021 - n° 386 - Categories:Thread of the Week
le Fil de la Semaine n°386
THIS WEEK'S NEWS HIGHLIGHTS.
The texts to read this week:
FRANCE :
The difficulty of obtaining large areas of land to equip with solar panels is giving some people ideas:
If large areas of land are hard to find for installing large solar power plants, why not take this obstacle into account? Why not look for an intermediate size installation, with areas of less than one hectare, where the production would be allocated to nearby users. The distribution can be done by a specialised company or in the form of self-consumption. There will always be small unused areas, and users who want to get off the grid
Solvéo Énergie recommends the use of mini-solar fields (MCS)
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After Alsace, Brittany and perhaps Moselle, the south-west also wants its panel factory!
The Occitanie region dreams of having its own cell and panel production unit. Its services have already located the area where a factory could be set up. Now they are looking for an industrial candidate for the production as well as financing. This approach seems curious because usually it is the industrialist who indicates his desire to create a factory and not the other way around, but this step is part of the desire to create a factory.However, this decision is in line with Occitania's desire to be a zero-emission region and a centre of photovoltaic excellence. Voluntarism is also good!
A new panel factory project in France (in Occitania)
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Renewable energies supplied 26.6% of electricity demand, half of which came from hydroelectricity
In twelve months, renewable energy installations increased by 6.0% to 59 GW at the end of September. At the same time, electricity production increased by 26%, indicating a particularly favourable climatic situation. In the renewable energy mix, solar still pales in comparison, accounting for only 21% of installed renewable energy capacity and supplying only 2.9% of French electricity consumption...
Update on renewable energy installations in France at the end of September
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PHOTOVOLTAIC :
The studies all point in the same direction: we can do without fossil fuels. Only nobody wants to try!
Study after study indicates that 100% renewable energy is possible, desirable and achievable. This time it is Stanford University (USA) that says so. While other studies have been more nuanced, here there are only advantages to going all renewable: energy production is reduced by up to 60% because of the location of production close to consumption. Production space is reduced by almost half, as fossil fuel production centres can be closed. On the basis of energy savings alone, the huge investments in transforming the grid will be repaid in just five years. There would be health savings ($700 billion per year) due to less pollution. There would be a net job gain of 5 million workers. Even long-term storage would no longer be an issue because of solar-wind complementarity and short-term battery use. And intermittency? Not a problem! It's all good!
Intermittency according to Stanford University: it's not a problem!
* *
On the one hand, there are the announced disruptions (price of panels, freight, reduction in production, ...); on the other hand, there is the growth of installations by 17% in 2021. Who to believe?
Installers have been hit by rising panel prices, higher sea freight rates and soon wage demands, not to mention delays in deliveries. A number of construction projects have been halted, delayed and re-discussed. The suddenness of the increase led to a general disturbance in the profession. However, the major consultancies continue to forecast a significant increase in global installations to 180 GW this year (according to IHS). They justify this 17% increase by the strong demand for power plants from investors who are willing to pay for the supply of electricity at a fixed price. For the time being, no one is asking whether the rise in prices does not call into question the choice of solar energy over other energies, even fossil fuels!
The worldwide development of photovoltaic installations is disrupted
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THE WORLD :
Finally, statistics on the trade balance of PV panels. No mention of other products (wafers, cells)
The European Union's statistical service has put the EU's trade deficit for photovoltaic panels at 6.2 billion euros in 2020. This amount has increased over the last decade. Unsurprisingly, China is the major supplier.
Exports of panels in 2020 will amount to 1.8 billion euros. The buyer countries are the USA (18% of exports), Singapore (14%) and the UK (11%). If we add Switzerland with 7%, we have located half of European exports. Curiously, China is a buyer with 8% of European sales.
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The way to regain America's greatness: reduce the cost of energy
The 'Build Back Better' bill currently being debated in the US Congress calls for a ten-year tax credit and a boost to US industrial production. According to BloombergNEF, the bill would halve the cost of producing a kilowatt-hour of solar power by 2030. This would reduce the cost of energy in the US and give a competitive edge to US operations.
A fabulous gift for American RE: the Build Back Better project
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MANUFACTURERS:
After the industrial-merchant customer base, BayWa r.e. wants to conquer the residential market
After becoming the second largest distributor of photovoltaic equipment in France, Baywa r.e. intends to develop the residential market. To do so, it is counting on the importance of advice, a dedicated product offering and rapid delivery from the Marseille warehouse, which was opened this summer.
New ambition of BayWa r.e. Solar Systems
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The future of electric vehicles depends on the price of lithium, which is rising again!
The price of batteries is expected to fall by 6% in 2021 compared to 2020, to $132/kWh. This drop would have been more significant if it were not for the rise in metal prices, which has made batteries more expensive in recent months. Thus, while the objective of reaching $100/kWh was envisaged within two years, this prospect has been postponed by a few years because battery prices will rise again in 2022. This is because lithium, a rare and expensive product, is increasingly in demand by all the gigafactories being built around the world. It is estimated that at around $100/kWh, the price of electric vehicles would become competitive in price and profitability for manufacturers. The prospect of rapid development of these vehicles is therefore postponed. However, the price of batteries should not remain high, as this would condemn electric traction.
The price of batteries is falling but their price depends on the price of lithium!
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MISCELLANEOUS
To reduce the use of gas heating, heat pumps exist but they are having difficulty gaining market acceptance
Three universities have studied the lack of interest in solar heat pumps among Europeans. Among the barriers, they identified the cost of the systems, the lack of appropriate business models, high upfront costs and long payback periods. These are the main barriers to wider adoption of solar heat pumps. Secondarily, they mentioned the lack of information about the technology and socio-demographic factors such as public perception and the effect of neighbours.
Where are the barriers to the adoption of solar heat pumps?
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