L R AS Published on Monday 7 February 2022 - n° 392 - Categories:Thread of the Week
The Week in Review n°392
THIS WEEK'S NEWS HIGHLIGHTS.
The texts to read this week:
FRANCE :
The feed-in tariff for areas up to 500 kWp
The new tariff for areas up to 500 kWp was expected. It is characterized by the stability of the purchase price compared to the previous quarter
The feed-in tariffs for the first quarter of 2022
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THE TREND
The surplus of installations to cope with intermittency is impressive
For the first time, figures have been put on the installations that need to be put in place to cope with the intermittency of solar energy production. Unlike fossil fuel power plants, which produce X MWh of power that is immediately available and corresponds to the X MWh of users (minus line losses), renewable energies are characterised by their intermittency. Therefore, if on a given day X MWh is produced, the next day only half or a third less may be produced. Additional installations are therefore needed to deal with this almost immediate and, above all, unpredictable shortfall. Batteries are therefore needed to supply energy when the sun is no longer shining, and to cope with subsequent periods when the sun is not as intense as before. California has put a price tag on the additional infrastructure that needs to be installed to ensure continued use by consumers. The surplus to be expected is impressive.
Consequence of intermittency on the volume of infrastructure to be installed!
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Developers would like to know the direction of panel prices in 2022 and in particular those of the second half of the year when silicon production units are expected to come on stream. Economic logic suggests that prices will fall more or less quickly by the end of 2022. The reality is that silicon manufacturers will continue to try to gain as much as possible from users by keeping the price high. The other players in the industry (wafer producers) have already "adjusted" their prices upwards in recent weeks. The silicon manufacturers, on the other hand, are backing up the start-ups with long-term sales contracts, so that not a single kilogram of silicon is left unsold and they can claim that there will be a shortage of raw material again. Daqo, which is generally well-informed, does not see prices falling in 2022.
BloombergNEF has launched into 2022 forecasts, both in price and volume, with of course a comparison to 2021. It preferred to launch a very wide forecast range for global demand as if the uncertainties or rather the difficulties of forecasting were still very great.
World photovoltaics in 2021 and 2022 in price and volume
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.PHOTOVOLTAICS :
The change from P-type to N-type should start this year and impose the new standard in 2026
N-type technology is constantly being discussed, but P-type is still the dominant technology at the beginning of 2022. It seems that the changeover will start this year under the impulse of three panel manufacturers (JinkoSolar, JA Solar and LONGi) with the help of the two big cell manufacturers (Tongwei and Aiko). This change in technology is the only way to increase the efficiency of the panels in the coming years. An explanation is given of the timetable and the evolution of the production
When and how will the transition from P-type to N-type take place?
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.A (downward) correction of theCO2 emitted during the production of silicon and wafers
Silicon and wafer production technology has made great strides in recent years. This results inCO2 savings that were not reflected in the assessments of five or ten years ago. Supporters of photovoltaics welcome this "discovery" or "correction". However, it does not change anything in the nuclear-solar quarrel, except that it confirms that solar energy creates less greenhouse gases than previously thought.
CO2 emissions during the production of silicon would be half as high as announced
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.The world is looking for new power plant sites or residential facilities
At a time when it is becoming increasingly difficult to find space to install new solar power plants, new locations are being sought, whether on lakes, reservoirs or ponds. There is also thought being given to installing panels at the place of use, i.e. in the city. However, urban agitation, pollution, and unsuitable situations are still making people think. It will be necessary to find places of installation unless another technology is used to increase the output of the panels and thus the energy produced...
What is the effect of the city on a solar panel?
The success of floating PV plants
A PV device that follows the sun to increase energy output
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.THE WORLD :
What is the share of solar, wind+solar, renewable energy in Europe in 2021?
A review of the production of solar, wind+solar and renewable energies in Europe compared to gas and coal. In 2021, the various renewable energies provided as much energy as fossil fuels (37% of consumption). The former are progressing slowly, the latter are regressing. Wind + solar provided only 19% of the Union's consumption in 2021. This is very little and very slow.
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In the United States, customs duties on imported panels will be maintained, and there will be freedom to import two-sided panels!
President Trump had wanted to rebuild a photovoltaic industry by introducing tariffs. His successor is maintaining these import duties for four years, but he is allowing free entry for two-sided panels, which are the most popular in the United States because they are the cheapest! Some people question the real effect of these taxes, considering that the renaissance of this industry has not taken place! Is this true? Is it wrong? What is certain is that there is hardly ever any information published on the results or the growth of production on the other side of the Atlantic
What is the degree of reconstruction of a PV industry in the US?
PV panel imports subject to tariffs, bi-facials excluded
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.Power purchase agreements have grown in line with global demand in 2021. US signs 2/3 of contracts
The growth of power purchase agreements (PPAs) in 2021 is comparable to the growth of global panel demand. Only in the first case, the contracts are signed, whereas the demand is translated into the operation of power plants... The centralisation of two-thirds of the signatures in the United States over-represents this region to the detriment of the rest of the world. This is because digital companies make heavy use of this long-term energy purchase. However, they are mainly domiciled in North America.
PPAs have already taken on a significant role in future installations, since the volume signed already represents one-sixth of installations, and this trend will increase in the coming years.
Global clean energy purchases by PPAs in 2021
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MANUFACTURERS :
Scatec has mainly managed its merger with SN Power in 2021, limiting the construction of new plants, which will have an impact on 2022
The merger at the beginning of 2021 led to a strong increase in turnover and higher EBITDA growth. However, this merger between a power plant developer and a hydroelectric dam operator has slowed down the power plant construction business in favour of an internal reorganisation. This will continue in the new financial year. It is only in the financial year 2023 that there will be a revival of growth.
Scatec in 2021: merger with SN Power
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Maxeon returns to sell in the US with product guarantee and insurance
To ensure its commercial return to the United States, Maxeon now guarantees its panels for forty years and backs up this claim with an insurance contract.
Maxeon to sell panels to the commercial-industrial segment in the US
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