L R AS Published on Saturday 27 November 2021 - n° 384 - Categories:the prices
24 November market analysis: prices are slowly falling
Prices are slowly falling throughout the supply chain
Silicon
Silicon buyers and sellers have mostly filled previous orders in a context of increased market sensitivity. A new round of price negotiations has not yet begun.
The price of silicon remained at RMB 269/kg; little price movement was seen in China or abroad. The long-awaited new production lines will be commissioned at the end of the year, but actual production will only increase inQ1 2022
Demand for silicon is reduced as capacity utilisation by wafer manufacturers remains relatively low in Q4. Everyone expects prices to fall but the extent and pace varies between parties: requirements are very different. It is expected that they will remain at an impasse until early December when a new round of negotiations will begin.
Pellets
Production has remained relatively stable, especially for the 166 mm and 210 mm formats. The 182 mm format depends on the assessment of stock levels, the market situation, the attempt to mitigate the losses incurred by price cuts in a context of high stocks. In reality, actual prices for 182 mm mono-Si wafers have fallen considerably. Average prices fell to RMB 6.4/piece, and those in the low range were between RMB 6.25/piece and RMB 6.35/piece. There is little difference between the prices offered by Tier 1 and Tier 2 manufacturers.
The thickness of consumer wafers has decreased from 182 mm to 165 µm
There is less demand for the 166 mm format. There is an increasing concentration of supply and demand in overseas markets.
Cells
Although the price of wafers has fallen slightly, the market is waiting. Only small and medium sized panel manufacturers have made small purchases. The volume of purchases of 166mm cells is expected to decrease in December, due to the decline in demand for this wafer size: average prices for this size continued to fall this week, reaching 1.08-1.1 RMB/W; the lower price range is 1.05-1.06 RMB/W.
As panel manufacturers continue to reduce their purchases, price cuts are expected to take hold in the upstream sector. Average prices are expected to reach RMB 1.12-1.14/W next week. Prices for 210mm cells have remained at 1.1-1.12 RMB/W this week, due to fewer buyers and low trading activity.
Panels
Trading prices fell slightly this week, with 166mm glass sheet panels averaging 2-2.02 RMB/W and those over 500W averaging 2.04-2.05 RMB/W. However, some panel manufacturers, faced with the large amount of unsold stock, liquidated stock early in mid-November. There is a price difference of 0.01-0.03 RMB/W between the trading prices and the average prices.
Demand is rather sluggish in November and December. Prices for 166mm panels may see a faster decline as demand shifts to larger sizes.
Demand for panels above 500 W shows no signs of recovery. Some major manufacturers have considered reducing production in December.
In order to secure orders and clear stocks in the face of falling demand, panel manufacturers have offered lower prices, which have fallen below RMB 2/W. The price range could be between 1.96 and 2 RMB/W in December. Tier 1 manufacturers are keeping prices at 1.98-2 RMB/W.
In overseas marketsPrices have stabilised for the time being. The 166 mm panels have seen their prices fall at a slow pace, being in the same price range as the 500+ W panels. Utilities that had been ordering 500+ W glass-foil panels at $0.25-0.255/W now have to order them at $0.28-0.285/W.
Few new orders have been signed for the fourth quarter; overseas markets are more wait-and-see. Prices in some distributed markets have fallen slightly to $0.285-0.29/W.
https://www.infolink-group.com/en/solar/spot-price/2021-1124-PV-spot-price
PV InfoLink 24 November 2021
