L R AS Published on Friday 18 September 2020 - n° 332 - Categories:silicon mono/multi
An overabundance of polysilicon and inverters? according to the TBEA subsidiary
China's TBEA subsidiary Xinte Energy warns of a possible overabundance of polysilicon and inverters in the event of a new coronavirus epidemic
Global silicon production capacity increased by 10% in the first half of the year compared to the end of June 2019. It stands at 265,000 tonnes according to
the China Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Association. Demand increased by 11%, reaching 257,000 tonnes, resulting in a surplus of 8,000 tonnes.
The price of silicon fell by 41% in the first half of the year compared to 2019, averaging RMB 38.20 per kg ($5.65). Dense monosilicon fell by only 14% to RMB 66.20 per kg. After June 30, prices recovered.
In thefirst half of the year, Xinte Energy suffered a 17% drop in sales to RMB 3.4 billion ($499 million). This includes development activities (RMB 1.3bn, down 38%) which were affected by the health crisis, as well as silicon sales of RMB 1.4bn (up 12%), while production increased by 44% year-on-year following the commissioning of a 36,000 tonne production unit. The company posted a net profit of RMB 626m (-27% over 2019). The net margin reached 18.4%!
China increased its production by a third between early 2019 and early 2020
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/17/xinte-energy-warns-of-possible-polysilicon-and-inverter-glut/
PV Magazine of 17 September
Editor's note Three weeks ago, Daqo New Energy estimated that the price of silicon would have to rise steadily as there would not be many new production units coming on stream in the next eighteen months as demand continued to rise. Last week, LONGi believed the price was correct after its recovery. This week, Xinte believes it is likely to fall back, especially with a resurgence of the pandemic! It's difficult to get a clear trend!
If there is an upturn, it should be limited because many producers could restart their facilities and thus continue to meet demand. The most likely scenario is a drop in prices because there is a big gap (from simple to double) between the cost price of the most efficient producers and the market price.
