L R AS Published on Saturday 20 January 2024 - n° 472 - Categories:forecasts;
IEA forecasts cut from eight to five years
After having drawn up forecasts for 2030, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has brought them back to 2028 (five years from now). Global renewable energy capacity would reach
7.3 TW under current policy and market conditions, but this growth trajectory will still fall short of the target of tripling global renewables capacity to 11 TW by the end of the decade set at the COP28 summit in Dubai.
By 2023, annual additions of renewable energy capacity worldwide had risen by almost 50% to 507 GW, the fastest growth rate in two decades.
Last year, China increased its solar installations by 116% and wind power by 66%. Its renewable energy capacity will reach more than 2 TW by the end of 2028, three times the capacity at the end of 2022.
Between 2023 and 2028, China's renewable energy capacity will be around five times that of the European Union and six times that of the United States.
India's renewable energy capacity will reach 200 GW by the end of 2028 thanks to incremental policy improvements to address auction participation, financing and distributed solar PV.
The four challenges that could prevent the world as a whole from reaching the 11 TW target by 2030, according to the IEA, stem from political uncertainties or delayed policy responses to the new macroeconomic environment; insufficient investment in grid infrastructure; and a lack of political will.insufficient investment in grid infrastructure; heavy administrative barriers with authorisation procedures or problems of social acceptance; and insufficient financing in emerging and developing economies.
PV Tech of 11 January 2024
