L R AS Published on Sunday 27 May 2018 - n° 235 - Categories:the American PV
What might the price of the kWh be in 2022 in the United States?
GTM Research estimates that within four years, solar panels will cost only $0.24 per watt and trackers $0.70 per watt. This opens up new opportunities for solar energy.
The installation cost of $1 per watt was observed in 2016-early 2017 in the United States. These costs may be temporarily increased by the introduction of tariffs.
The date of 2022 is important because the customs duties should disappear by that date and the investment tax credit could be used, if work began in 2021 and the project is completed in 2023.
GTM estimates that the price of panels should drop from $0.37/W currently to $0.24/W in 2022 (-35%). Much of this decline in prices could come solely from the increase in the efficiency of the panels, as they are expected to increase their efficiency to 20%, an increase of 17% to 25% from the current 16% to 17%. Other installation costs, such as the price of inverters, which in the near past has decreased by 10% to 20%, would only decrease by 5% to 10%. Other installation costs may not decline in the near future.
The efficiency gap (+13%) obtained with two-sided panels installed on trackers compared to single-sided panels could increase by 12.5% this year.
It is also noted that high-yield panels on single-sided trackers exceed 30% yield in the south-western United States. If two-sided panels are optimised with single-axis trackers and a field reflection (albedo) is organised, an efficiency rate of almost 34% is obtained, i.e. 20% more on the same m² where a standard solar panel mounted on fixed installations is installed.
As a result, the price of solar electricity falls. GTM estimates that solar and wind power will bring wholesale electricity prices down by 50% by the end of the 2020s.
GTM has sought to determine the price trend for a panel lifetime of 25 years (the current manufacturer's guaranteed lifetime): the panel yield offered by trackers is 30.2% plus the 12.5% of the bifacial.
In another comparison, the yield is 38%, which is 12% higher because 20% of the bifacial panels increase production by 17-25%.
Operating and maintenance costs were also taken into account, estimated at $7.50/kWh (there are current contracts between $8 and $10/W, some of which are influenced by the tax credit and others by the very dense installation area). Solar power plants have no variable O&M costs (PDF).
This results in an average cost of renewable solar energy of 1.5¢/kWh. This price includes the benefits for developers of power plants for electricity companies.
If the developer partners with an investor who benefits from the tax credit and the 25% depreciation, which reduces the investment cost by $0.52 / W, the price of electricity in the United States is 1.1¢ / kWh.
Although this price seems unreal, we are already seeing bids in auctions that are recent: 1.78 ¢ / kWh in Saudi Arabia, 1.97 ¢ / kWh in Mexico using clean energy certificates, 2.15 ¢ / kWh in Chile.
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/05/25/the-path-to-us0-015-kwh-solar-power-and-lower/
Trends in Solar Technology and System Prices
PV Magazine of 25 May
