L R AS Published on Monday 19 June 2023 - n° 450 - Categories:the prices, evolution-stat
The PV sector: getting closer to manufacturers' cost prices
Silicon
The price of silicon continues to fall. It fell to 78 RMB/kg, down 22% over the week.
per kilo. We are getting closer to RMB 50-60/kg, which would be the cost of production. Stocks are high. They stand at 120,000 to 130,000 tonnes, equivalent to a month's production. A rapid and complete depletion of stocks is unlikely, as manufacturers large and small are bringing new capacity online at different rates, adding to the oversupply on the spot market. Production volume is expected to increase to 53-54 GW as new capacity comes online. Production capacity for granular silicon is increasing, aggravating the risk of high inventory levels and accelerating the fall in prices.
Wafers :
Wafer prices continue to fall this week, dropping close to production costs. Major manufacturers are beginning to offer prices cautiously, while Tier 2 and Tier 3 manufacturers continue to update price offers frequently, resulting in a lower price range and wider price spread.
Prices stand at RMB3.05/piece and RMB4.65/piece for M10 and G12 wafers, down 15% and 7% respectively as there are fewer G12 wafer manufacturers. As a result, G12 wafers are losing their advantage over M10 wafers in terms of value for money. As of this Wednesday, prices have dropped to 2.8-3 RMB/piece for M10 wafers from tier 2 and tier 3 manufacturers. The price of G12 wafers has fallen to 4.2 RMB/piece.
The volume of stocks explains this fall in price. It is down slightly but remains above 10 GW. As prices move closer to production costs, there is less and less room for further price reductions, leaving manufacturers with no choice but to reduce utilisation rates.
Cells :
Cell prices are falling due to lower wafer prices, despite stable demand and monthly production rising to 46 GW. Cell prices continue to fall this week, reaching 0.78-0.79 RMB/W and 0.83-0.85 RMB/W for M10 and G12 cells, down 8-9%. Prices for N cells are holding steady at 0.09 RMB/W higher than those for P cells.
M10 TOPCon cells returned to 0.87 RMB/W. Prices for N-type cells remain 0.09 RMB/W higher than those for P-type cells.
Panels :
Buyers are in a waiting phase, which is limiting the progress of Chinese construction sites. This is also limiting the reduction in stocks.
Panel prices have fallen considerably this week. For glass backsheet panels, average prices are between 1.45 and 1.48 RMB/W. The price difference is widening all the time, as pricing varies enormously between panel manufacturers. New orders are taken at 1.40-1.45 RMB/W.
The low price range on the spot market is now between 1.35 and 1.38 RMB/W. Average prices for Tier-2 and Tier-3 panel manufacturers vary widely. There is a wide disparity in prices between Tier-2 and Tier-3 panel manufacturers.
Panel manufacturers are reducing their production plans by 5-10% based on current inventories and order volumes. Panel production in June is estimated at 42-43 GW.
This attitude of manufacturers is reflected outside China: they are delivering at $0.2/W (FOB) in June and accepting orders at $0.17-0.19/W.
Prices for G12 HJT panels are falling in line with panel prices. Panel manufacturers are delivering at RMB 1.7-1.78/W. In non-Chinese markets, prices are currently between $0.21 and $0.25/W.
Prices for M10 TOPCon panels are losing ground this week, falling back to 1.5-1.66 RMB/W. In non-Chinese markets, prices are holding steady at $0.2-0.23/W, with a premium of $0.005-0.012/W over PERC panel prices.
https://www.infolink-group.com/energy-article/pv-spot-price-20230614
InfoLink of 14 June 2023
