L R AS Published on Sunday 2 April 2023 - n° 439 - Categories:forecasts;
A 15% drop in the price of panels in 2023? This forecast is arbitrary!
According to the Clean Energy Associates (CEA), the price of Chinese panels is expected to fall by 15% in 2023. The price of silicon is also expected to fall.
The price of panels using TOPCon technology will remain higher than that of PERC panels in 2023.
The price difference between the two technologies will narrow from 2024 onwards, "as TOPCon becomes the default panel for utilities". By 2024, the price of panels will fall by an average of 6% in China. The price of PERC panels will gradually decrease until it is withdrawn. By the first quarter of 2025, TOPCon single-face backsheet panels will cost the same as double-glass PERC panels with 210mm cells.
According to the CEA, global PV manufacturing capacity along the supply chain will grow rapidly from 2022 to 2027, with a doubling of ingot/wafer capacity and up to a quadrupling of silicon capacity. This capacity will remain heavily concentrated in China.
Equipment oversupply, as measured by the industry's nominal production capacity relative to new installations, is expected to increase from 25% in 2022 to 100% in 2027. In other words, the industry as a whole will be able to produce twice as much as demand. By 2023, global panel capacity is expected to exceed 800 GW per year, while global installations will likely remain above 300 GW. By 2027, panel capacity could exceed 1,000 GW per year, while installations are expected to be around 500 GW.
Based on new capacity under construction or already in the start-up and ramp-up phase, silicon production capacity will triple between 2022 and 2024.
PV Magazine of 31 March 2023
Editor's note: The prediction of a 15% price drop in 2023 is not very credible because too many factors are involved in this price. On the other hand, the rapid increase in production capacity is much more well-founded because Chinese manufacturers know that demand is growing rapidly, that they must anticipate an acceleration in demand in order to be ready to meet it.The proportion of one product for every two in capacity is already observable at present (cf. A look at the anticipation of Chinese production capacity).
