L R AS Published on Sunday 23 January 2022 - n° 390 - Categories:forecasts;, silicon mono/multi
Silicon still the source of supply problems in 2022
Silicon prices are expected to fall this year. Stocks should start to build up across the solar industry in the first half of 2022.
According to PV Infolink, silicon prices excluding VAT (before tax) are expected to fall from current levels of $26-30/kg, to $19/kg by the end of the year. Prices have recently recovered to around $30/kg, largely as a result of lower silicon inventories due to seasonality ahead of the Chinese New Year and a rebound in usage levels at the end of 2021.
Inventory levels in the industry are well below normal levels of between one month and six weeks across all segments, according to PV InfoLink. Current stocks of silicon are around two weeks, and those of wafers less than a week.
The consultancy estimates that the world will produce 318 GW of silicon and 322 GW of wafers in 2022. Replenishing a stock of 30 GW would support the price of silicon and wafers in 2022.
New entrants to the industry in 2022 and also in 2023
The price of panels will fall from $0.27/W in the first quarter to $0.24/W in the fourth quarter.
PERC panels should maintain their market share at 90%. The share of N-type panels will increase to 7 or 8%.
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/01/20/full-solar-value-chain-relief-is-on-the-way-says-roth-capital/
PV Magazine 20 January 2022
Editor's note The comments made in the text (Expected overproduction but a shortage of silicon in the first half of the year) are also relevant here. The price of silicon has risen to $30/kg because of the New Year and strong demand at the end of the year. These explanations do not hold water. The only relevant one is that manufacturers want the highest possible prices.
