l'Actualité du Solaire

China has been shaken by the emergence of the coronavirus

The virus has spread to the rest of the world.

How to perceive the real situation?

The catastrophism of Western commentators at home

However, the situation seems to have improved considerably in a fortnight in the Chinese industry.

The epidemic is running out of steam in China

In trials, it is the mind that makes the difference.

China has been shaken by the appearance of the coronavirus.

In mid-January the world was impressed by the rapid spread of the coronavirus epidemic in China during the Chinese New Year celebrations, and the violence of the official response by the authorities. They quarantined entire regions, prevented the population from travelling, and imposed a traffic-free zone in cities as large as Beijing. The aim was to locate the virus, to prevent it from circulating, to prohibit contamination within cities and more generally within the entire country.

The virus spread to the rest of the world.

The world was so impressed that it was left with the image of an epidemic that could not stop, could not stop, could not be stopped.The world was so impressed that it was left with the image of an epidemic that could not stop, especially as outbreaks of contagion are found in many regions or countries such as Northern Italy, now France, but also and above all South Korea and Iran. Each day brings an increase in the number of people infected. It is estimated that there are 100,000, 80,000 of whom are in China, but it is to be expected that this figure will very quickly be replaced by a much larger number. Similarly, the number of deaths is currently announced at 3,000, including more than 2,900 in China, but there is nothing to indicate that this figure reflects reality because deaths have not been counted in the epidemic. The situation is expected to worsen in the coming days with new cases of mortality, new infectious outbreaks, and people fearing that it is their turn!

In the face of this public concern, reason has no place, especially when every day the count of the sick and the dead is getting longer and longer. Unless we are mistaken, it would seem that the disease prefers to attack any body that already has various deficiencies and is therefore less capable of resisting The epidemic's alarm bell ringer, a young Chinese doctor in his thirties, was also killed by the disease. Some epidemiologists claim that it is a disease barely more serious than the flu and that it kills far fewer people than the flu that rages every year!

How do we perceive the real situation?

Faced with this situation, what will be the effects for the photovoltaic profession? The risk of making a mistake is enormous, because one would have to be in China to perceive what is really happening, to have a general view of the different production plants in the sector, to question the managers in order to perceive how well their plant is working. But the managers will tend to embellish their situation from the outside. Moreover, by the time the information has been collected, several days or weeks will have elapsed and the situation will have changed.

The catastrophism of Western commentators who have stayed home warm

Above all, Western commentators are stunned by the authoritarian quarantine measures imposed on the Wuhan region, the initial epicentre of the epidemic, by the images of deserted streets in Beijing, and by the traffic-free airports and train stations. These images are a fortnight or more old, and are presented as the current situation.

These commentators present the advent of the epidemic a fortnight to a month late. They tend to blacken the picture, as if the end of the world had arrived. Indeed, nothing sells better than to make the rest of the world fear a catastrophe, the one that China left to the rest of the world in the middle of January. That's what public opinion believes; it is given what it wants to hear or only what it is ready to hear!

According to these opinions, the Chinese photovoltaic production sector would be completely disorganised, with workers who are ill or absent for confinement, deliveries of raw materials and the supply of electricity.According to these opinions, the Chinese photovoltaic production industry would be completely disorganised, with workers ill or absent for confinement, deliveries of raw materials interrupted because of the forbidden regions, transporters unable to circulate, putting the factories that would like to work at a standstill because of the lack of components or raw materials. And if the factories were to operate, production would be piled up in warehouses with no transporters to deliver them to customers or to ports. Some figures have been put forward: 14% of Shanghai's capacity was up and running a fortnight ago. In other words, the ports are not working, all the more so as the sailors are afraid of getting sick at sea and not being able to be treated!

The bottom line, according to these commentators, is that nothing works in China anymore. The economy is either at a standstill or at a standstill. Deliveries of photovoltaic products are at a standstill. This will be passed on to the rest of the world with power station construction sites being halted, and panel price increases of up to 20% for the privileged few who are prepared to pay a high price for valuable panels. This is the sense of the analysis presented at the end of February by pvXchange (The analysis of pvXchange (below) is contradicted by that of observers in China).

However, the situation in the Chinese industry seems to have improved considerably in a fortnight.

This is what Taiwanese commentators who are close to their Chinese brothers report. If you read the market situation of EnergyTrend or PV InfoLink two weeks apart, you can see a big difference (The prices of the sector on 12 February - Prices in the sector on 26 February). A fortnight ago, the industry was almost totally blocked since the silicon furnaces were running out of raw material, the other manufacturers of the wire industry were running out of raw material.(wafers, cells, panels) were still in mid-February trying to get their employees together and take stock of the products missing for the completion of the tasks. The most likely outcome, according to these two observers, was a probable price increase to take advantage of the situation.

A fortnight later, the situation begins to normalise. It is no longer so chaotic. Little by little we are returning to an organisation in the sector that works. Of course, there are always shortages or operating difficulties, but they are less marked than fifteen days earlier. There have been no price increases except in special cases. Rather, there is a tendency for prices to crumble. Silicon manufacturers are working almost normally. The supply of monosilicon wafers has increased, weighing on the intentions of price increases. Little by little, work rates are picking up among cell professionals. The panel manufacturers are still suffering from a slump because the increase in production rates in the sector is not translating into panel sales. They are not yet able to deliver abroad. Loaded with stocks, they are obliged to lower their prices!

These comments don't come from China but from Taiwanese observers, which in a way gives credibility to these remarks since they are not involved.

The epidemic is running out of steam in China

This return to a more normal situation can be explained by the decrease, day after day, in the number of people infected by the coronavirus in the Chinese population. The number of infected people and deaths is no longer even mentioned as they no longer have any spectacular appeal. The epidemic is running out of steam. It is expected that within a fortnight to a month, it will have almost disappeared in China. This development is hidden by the spread of the disease in Europe, whether in Northern Italy or even in France, where in the last two days the number of infected people has doubled, with one or two new outbreaks of declared disease and of course a few deaths to frighten the "bourgeois".

As if to show that the page has already been turned for those in charge, one need only look at the succession of announcements among company managers to launch new production facilities for silicon and panel cells, some of which are due to come on stream in four months, others in eight months (New announcements of capacity increases in China) ! This can be attributed to Coué's method, or to propaganda to show that all is well in China. It's not so certain because they know what's going on in their country. The fact remains that this epidemic has tarnished the image of China, which will want to show that it is exemplary in erasing the after-effects, inconveniences and disruptions of a disease it is responsible for. Its repute has been affected. This could even result in price cuts to "make up for it".

The fact that the spread of the epidemic in China will be reduced does not mean that the Chinese and global economic mechanisms will be able to get back on track quickly, but there But in this case, we will quickly see the efficiency of the Chinese, their sense of work and their self-sacrifice in the face of their mission to save their company, to show respect for their country, and to restore the country's image.

In times of hardship, it is the mind that makes the difference.

Ultimately, the obstacles to restoring economic mechanisms may well come from third countries (such as Europe) that are currently affected by the coronavirus. Will they have the resilience, the dynamism and the will to surpass themselves, as the Chinese are demonstrating? The mentally strongest come out on top in the trials. The others suffer and sometimes give up. For Europe, this will be a test of our moral worth.

The prices of the panels on 26 February :

PANELS in watts

Prices announced by EnergyTrend

	item	High	Low	Avg	Chg
	275W-280W Module (RMB)	1.610	1.500	1.580	( 0% )
	275W-280W Module (USD)	0.229	0.195	0.205	( 0.99 % )
	325W-330W (72P) Module (RMB)	1.630	1.580	1.600	( -0.62 % )
	325W-330W (72P) Module (USD)	0.223	0.198	0.218	( 0% )
	305W-310W Module (RMB)	1.700	1.650	1.690	( 0% )
	305W-310W Module (USD)	0.390	0.221	0.311	( -0.64 % )
	315W-320W Module (RMB)	1.750	1.690	1.720	( -0.58 % )
	315W-320W Module (USD)	0.350	0.227	0.284	( 0% )
	>320W Module (RMB)	1.780	1.720	1.750	( -1.13 % )
	>320W Module (USD)	0.388	0.226	0.257	( -0.39 % )

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Item	High	Low	Average	AvgChg	AvgChg % % AvgChg % AvgChg % AvgChg % AvgChg
Poly Solar Module	0.300	0.170	0.185	0	0%
Poly Module in China	0.240	0.180	0.190	0	0%
Poly High Eff / PERC Module	0.350	0.190	0.208	-0.001	-0.48%
Mono High Eff / PERC Module	0.390	0.200	0.214	-0.002	-0.93%
Mono High Eff / PERC Module in China	0.250	0.200	0.207	-0.002	-0.96%
ThinFilm Solar Module	0.330	0.220	0.229	-0.001	-0.43%

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