l'Actualité du Solaire

Data from the National Energy Administration (NEA) indicates that China is likely to have added more than 180 GW of solar production capacity by 2023, and could surpass

200 GW, since it reached almost 143 GW of solar energy at the end of October 2023, representing growth of 106% to 129% compared with 2022.

This achievement was not envisaged at the start of 2023, when the CPIA had projected installations of 95 GW to 120 GW. Realisations increased with the fall in panel prices from 1.9 RMB/W in January 2023 to 1 RMB/W reached in November 2023.

Substantial Chinese investment between 2020 and 2023

Plans to expand solar production worth an estimated RMB 2.5 trillion have been announced since 2020, with RMB 700 billion committed in 2021 and RMB 900 billion in 2022. While the investment boom has slowed considerably in 2023, eight major photovoltaic companies recently announced RMB 300 billion in productive investment. Silicon production has secured more than RMB 700 billion in investment between 2020 and 2022. The manufacture of solar ingots and wafers has garnered more than RMB 290 billion. Investment in cell and panel production exceeded RMB 820 billion over this period. Solar glass attracted RMB 110 billion; ethylene vinyl acetate and polyolefin film production RMB 18.5 billion; diamond wire cutting equipment RMB 14 billion; and backsheet production RMB 20 billion.

The CPIA says that China will reach three million tonnes of silicon production capacity by 2023, with a further 800 GW of wafer capacity, 700 GW of cell capacity and 800 GW of panel factories.

Is there an installed production overcapacity?

There is a clear difference of opinion between industry and government on the question of overcapacity. Longi believes that the current overcapacity has begun to hamper the ability of Chinese photovoltaic companies to innovate. This is mainly due to the fall in selling prices resulting from overcapacity, which in turn is undermining profitability and the capital available to companies for research and development.

The share prices of major PV manufacturers have fallen by 50% or more. This decline indicates that investors are deeply concerned about the profitability of the sector.

Manufacturers have invested not only in capacity but also in research and development. GCL, for example, has indicated that as a result of its R&D, the cost of granular silicon produced at GCL's Leshan plant is less than RMB 36/kg. This makes GCL by far the cheapest silicon producer.

Major technological advances

Wafer thinning and cost reduction continued. Wafers have been reduced to 150 µm, and even to between 90 and 100 micrometres for the heterojunction.

The most significant technological advances have been seen in solar cells. The main panel manufacturers have adopted TOPCon technology. JinkoSolar had reached a production capacity of 55 GW by the end of June 2023. The company expects its N-type TOPCon production capacity to represent more than 75% of its total panel capacity of 110 GW by the end of 2023. This can only be achieved with market acceptance of the new products. JinkoSolar has announced that more than 60% of its 2023 production will be N-type.

Huasun plans to reach 15 GW of cell and heterojunction panel (HJT) capacity by the end of 2023. Risen has a target of 15 GW of HJT cell and panel capacity by the end of 2023. The various companies focusing on HJT have a total HJT production capacity of 70 GW by the end of 2023.

Longi and Aiko Solar are actively promoting different types of back-contact cell (xBC) technology. xBC cell technology is set to evolve significantly in 2024.

In June, the major panel manufacturers established a standardised size for medium-format photovoltaic panels.

Improving the Chinese grid, extending the uses of PV

Solar energy production taking place in western and northern China. The Chinese government is planning to build very high voltage transmission lines to carry the electricity produced to the economically developed regions in the centre and east of the country. The aim is to install a minimum of 450 GW of renewable energy production capacity, mainly solar and wind power. By 2021, total generating capacity will have reached 97 GW. A second batch will come on stream from 2024 and exceed 400 GW, of which 100 GW will be completed by 2025.

These facilities not only produce energy, but also serve as a testing ground for new modular products. Officials have discovered new applications for solar technology, including roadside and offshore photovoltaics: the implementation of the motorway photovoltaic system involves the installation of distributed photovoltaic parks on the roofs of buildings in roadside service areas, car parks and along roadside platforms adjacent to service areas. The future of roadside solar energy holds great potential and is set to gain ground.

Offshore floating PV can accommodate over 70 GW of floating PV capacity. The coastal provinces have ambitious plans for offshore development, with 60 GW planned. Although the current cost of floating solar power is 5% to 12% higher than that of onshore PV, falling panel prices have brought offshore PV closer to a positive return on investment. In November 2023, the Haiyang HG34 power plant, with an impressive installed generating capacity of 2.7 GW, began operations off the coast of Shandong province.

Outlook for 2024

1°) The sector is concerned about the price of panels. Prices could fall further. Manufacturers are tempted to close plants and opt for limited production in order to maintain prices and margins.

2°) The Chinese supply chain is suffering from global overcapacity. New production capacity is expected at the end of 2023 and in 2024. Overcapacity could lead to substantial losses, bankruptcies and the restructuring of many companies.

3°) The Chinese economy is slowing down, with manufacturing output stagnating or declining and demand for electricity expected to remain stable or even fall. This could prompt investors to scale back their ambitions.

4°) The main concern for 2024 is the amount of new solar generation capacity expected. The increasing use of renewables has raised concerns about grid stability. The main concern for 2024 is the amount of new solar generation capacity expected. Since October 2023, several Chinese provincial governments have temporarily suspended approvals for ground-mounted or distributed photovoltaic projects. These decisions stem from concerns that grids will not be able to accommodate additional intermittent energy sources.

5°) What is certain is that TOPCon is well on the way to becoming a mainstream product. The future of HJT and xBC cells remains uncertain. The possibility of a commercial breakthrough with perovskites remains in the background.

Although there may be short-term setbacks, the industry will inevitably experience a resurgence.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/12/16/weekend-read-famine-to-feast-chinas-solar-market-in-2023/

PV Tech of 16 December 2023

Editor's note This overview of China is impressive. It shows remarkable dynamism and innovation.