L R AS Published on Monday 22 May 2023 - n° 446 - Categories:European countries
Production and price differences in Europe in May 2023
In the second week of May, solar PV production in Portugal reached a record maximum hourly value, adding to the record-breaking streak for this technology in Europe in 2023.
On the electricity markets,
Prices remained stable with an upward trend, except on the MIBEL and Nordic markets where prices fell. Zero hours were recorded on the weekend in the MIBEL market and negative hours in the Netherlands. Gas futures recorded the lowest price since July 2021.
In the week of 8 May, solar energy production increased compared to the previous week in the Iberian Peninsula, by 10% in Portugal and by 5.6% in Spain. The highest production value was recorded on Saturday 13 May between 13:00 and 14:00 with 1,645 MWh generated with this technology. In mainland Spain, the third and fourth highest production values of photovoltaic solar energy in history were recorded between 13:00 and 15:00. They were above 15,100 MWh.
In the other markets, decreases in production were recorded in Italy (-29%), France (-21%), Germany (-13%).
In the second week of May, a significant increase was recorded in wind power generation in Portugal, when it increased by 89% compared to the production in the first week of the month. In the Spanish and French markets, production with this technology also increased, 39% in Spain and 7.2% in France. However, wind power production in Germany was 10% below the previous week's level, and 4.2% in Italy.
For the third week of May, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting's wind power production forecasts indicate that wind power production could decrease in most of the markets analysed, with the exception of Italy.
In the second week of May, electricity demand increased compared to the previous week in almost all the markets analysed. This was mainly due to a recovery in demand after the1st of May was a holiday in most markets. Increases ranged from 0.9% in Italy to 11% in the Netherlands.
For the week of 8 May, demand is expected to increase in European markets except in Spain, where 15 May is a public holiday in Madrid. In Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands, Ascension Day (18 May) is celebrated.
During the week of 8 May, prices in most European electricity markets remained stable, although with a slight upward trend compared to the previous week. The largest price increase, of 5.4%, was recorded on the Italian IPEX market. In contrast, prices fell in the Nordic and Iberian markets. The largest price decrease of 39% was in the Nordic Pool market. In the case of the MIBEL market in Spain and Portugal, the decreases were 14% and 17% respectively.
In the second week of May, the highest average price of €119.36/MWh was in the Italian market, followed by the UK N2EX market average of €101.47/MWh. In contrast, the lowest weekly average price was in the Nordic market, at €47.74/MWh. In the rest of the markets analysed, prices ranged from €73.76/MWh in the Spanish market to €95.13/MWh in the German EPEX SPOT market.
With regard to hourly prices, on the Spanish MIBEL market, on Sunday 14 May, nine hours of zero prices were recorded
With regard to hourly prices, on the Spanish MIBEL market, on Sunday 14 May, nine hours at zero price were recorded, between 9:00 and 18:00. On the Portuguese MIBEL market, on the same Sunday, there were three hours of zero prices, from 15:00 to 18:00. On the other hand, on the Dutch market, on Saturday 13 May, between 11:00 and 16:00, one hour at zero price and four hours at negative price were recorded. The lowest hourly price of -99.93€/MWh was reached between 13:00 and 14:00 and was the lowest since 19 April.
During the week of 8 May, the decrease in the average gas price was offset by the increase in demand on most markets. In the case of the Italian market, wind and solar generation declined, with the highest weekly average value recorded. However, the increase in solar power generation and the corresponding increase in wind power generation in the Iberian Peninsula contributed to the price decreases recorded in the MIBEL market.
Settlement prices for Brent crude oil futures for the month ahead on the ICE market recorded a settlement price of $77.01/bbl on Monday 8 May. This was 2.9% lower than the previous month, but 2.3% higher than the last session in the first week of May. On Tuesday 9 May, prices continued to rise and the maximum weekly settlement price of $77.44/bbl was reached, 2.8% higher than the previous week. Thereafter, prices declined until they reached the weekly minimum settlement price of $74.17/bbl on Friday 12 May. This price was 1.5% lower than the previous Friday.
TTF gas futures gas futures contracts on the ICE Front-Month market reached their maximum weekly settlement price of €36.87/MWh on Monday 8 May, although this price was 5.0% lower than on the previous Monday. Subsequently, price decreases were recorded. As a result, on Friday 12 May, the weekly minimum settlement price of €32.77/MWh was reached. This price was 10% lower than the previous Friday and the lowest since the first half of July 2021.
The abundance of liquefied natural gas supplies and the high level of European stocks continued to exert a downward influence on prices during the second week of May.
The prices of futures contracts onCO2 emission rights futures on the EEX market for the December 2023 reference contract at the beginning of the second week of May continued the upward trend that began the previous week. On Wednesday 10 May, the maximum weekly settlement price of €89.49/t was reached, which was 5.3% higher than on the previous Wednesday. However, on Thursday, prices fell and in the last two sessions of the week, settlement prices remained below 88.50 €/t. Despite this, the settlement price on Friday 12 May was 88.48 €/t, 4.1% higher than the previous Friday.
PV Magazine of 16 May 2023
Editor's note: This was to be expected with the irradiance of the European continent (Apart from Spain, Europe was covered with clouds in April, resulting in low PV production). Here we have the price translation of solar and wind production. They vary from country to country, from hour to hour. They provide a picture that is constantly changing, and without the possibility of making a definite forecast.