L R AS Published on Saturday 1 April 2023 - n° 439 - Categories:the prices
The PV sector as of 29 March 2023
Panel prices expected to rise in Q2 as midstream prices stabilise
Silicon :
Silicon prices are crumbling with a range of RMB 200-208/kg. Negotiations are pushing prices down. Kilograms are expected to fall below RMB 200 in April.
The price pressure on tier 2 and 3 manufacturers is slowing down the sale of their silicon, hence the downward adjustment of prices, creating a gap with tier 1 manufacturers. Stocks tend to swell. The silicon business environment is changing and full of uncertainty.
According to EnergyTrend, the China Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Association reports that about 105,000 tonnes of silicon were produced in March, up 7.7% from the previous month.
In total, 304,000 tonnes of silicon were produced in China in the first quarter, up 91% year-on-year.
Wafers :
Prices are stabilising, with little difference between the prices of large and small manufacturers. The price of 210 mm wafers with a thickness of 150 μm remains unchanged. At this price, the 210 mm-150 μm wafers see their cost-performance per watt ratio improve. Future price developments require further observation.
Cell manufacturers are adjusting their production rates to the tightening wafer supply environment. In April, cell manufacturers are caught between wafer prices that show no signs of decreasing and the refusal of panel producers to increase their prices.
Cells :
Since the wafer price shows no sign of changing, the cell price has changed little. However, the demand and price of G12 cells is increasing, given the growing demand for high power panels and a shortage of high efficiency M10 cells. As the premium of G12 over M10 increases, several cell manufacturers are switching some of their production lines to G12 production, which should ease the supply shortage at the end of April.
This week, M10 cell prices have fallen slightly to RMB 1.07-1.08/W, while G12 cell prices remain around RMB 1.1/W. Dollar prices remain 0.03-0.04 RMB/W higher.
EnergyTrend reports that demand for G12 has increased, as evidenced by recent tenders for panels. Prices for G12 panels are rising slightly due to slightly limited supply caused by insufficient production. Some companies are therefore accelerating the transition of their production lines. The problem of insufficient production is expected to be solved soon.
M10 cell manufacturers continue to try to increase their prices. However, given the limited acceptance of the panel sector, price increases are unlikely to be sustainable.
G12 cell manufacturers have also tried to increase their prices. They are between 1.12 and 1.14 RMB/W. Prices could rise further due to limited supply. Prices depend on the attitude of panel manufacturers and end-user demand.
The price of N-type cells remains high at RMB 1.2-1.22/W for M10 TOPCon cells. For G12 HJT cells, most orders are coming from markets outside China, with prices of RMB 1.3-1.4/W. The supply of N-type cells will increase with the commissioning of new production units.
The panels :
Their price has fallen further in recent tenders. They are 1.65-1.8 RMB/W for glass-foil backsheet panels over 500 W, and 1.68-1.71 RMB/W for glass-glass panels. The lower price range is between RMB 1.65 and 1.68/W, while the upper price range decreases as deliveries at RMB 1.8/W come to an end.
The intermediate supply chain is also affected by the short-term supply-demand mismatch. Panel prices are unlikely to hold up in April, despite falling raw material prices. Cost pressure is intensifying for small and medium-sized manufacturers as well as for non-integrated manufacturers, who are slowly passing on the pressure to upstream sectors. As a result, cell price growth may be relatively limited.
In Europe, prices are holding at $0.21-0.225/W, as demand shows signs of recovery in March.
N-type panel prices are stable. For G12 HJT panels, prices are in the range of RMB 1.9-1.95/W, while prices in non-Chinese markets remain at $0.26/W. Prices for M10 TOPCon panels remain around RMB 1.7-1.83/W and $0.23-0.235/W in overseas markets.
EnergyTrend clarifies that installers are relying heavily on lower panel prices in the coming periods. They are price averse. However, the various tender projects indicate an increase in demand, hence the stability of prices
https://www.infolink-group.com/energy-article/pv-spot-price-20230329
InfoLink of 29 March 2023
