L R AS Published on Sunday 23 January 2022 - n° 390 - Categories:forecasts;
A foreseeable overproduction but a 1st half with a shortage of silicon
According to AECEA, by the end of 2021, China's silicon production capacity will have reached 530,000 tonnes and its wafer capacity will be 340 GW.
80 GW from new producers. There will not be sufficient demand for all this additional capacity in the near future. But the AECEA says that overcapacity is the industry norm rather than the exception.
An additional 300,000 tonnes of silicon could come on stream in the first half of 2022. The price of silicon will remain high until the summer, at around RMB 200/kg. It could fall to 170 RMB/kg by the end of the year. From the first quarter of 2023 onwards, the price should fall rapidly (and perhaps sooner than expected), and return to its previous historical lows of RMB 56/kg.
By the end of 2022, China's solar industry could have 550 GW of cell production capacity and 500 GW of panel production capacity. The price of panels could return to 1.75 RMB ($0.28)/W in the second half of the year, which would be only slightly lower than the current 1.9 RMB/W.
The year 2021 is the last period in which it has been possible to benefit from central government subsidies. It is not surprising, therefore, that large-scale power plants have not been put into operation very often, while residential photovoltaic systems that have benefited from subsidies or subsidies have not.subsidies or grants, increased by 113% on the previous year (to 21.59 GW).
Commercial and industrial solar PV systems are expected to benefit most from higher electricity tariffs. Ground-mounted plants are subject to ground rental charges that have risen considerably in some provinces, offsetting the potential gains from higher electricity tariffs.
At the beginning of 2022, Chinese manufacturers received an unprecedented number of calls for the purchase of panels.
PV Magazine, 21 January 2022
Editor's note: All the indicators point to a current overproduction of wafers, cells and panels. Only silicon production is still constrained. Demand for panels is higher in the second half of the year than in the first. With a number of silicon production units coming on stream in the first half of the year, the period should (or could) go well.
This would be to overlook the interests of silicon manufacturers first and foremost, but also of the entire industry, which has every interest in obtaining the highest possible prices. They are well aware that time is against them in the second half of 2023. As a result, manufacturers throughout the industry are likely to invent any argument they can to raise prices, or prevent them from falling. We got our first glimpse of this when LONGi raised the price of its wafers on 16 January after an earthquake.
Of course, we were told that the earthquake was the cause of the price hike, but we know nothing about the extent of the damage to the corresponding factory, which may not even have been affected! It's even surprising that Zhonghuan, which has a factory in the same region, has not changed its prices! It is very likely that the first half of the year will disappoint the forecasts, with prices remaining high. We're already starting to prepare buyers and analysts with the abundance of requests for prices and orders in the sector...
