L R AS Published on Sunday 12 December 2021 - n° 386 - Categories:forecasts;
Projected PV installations in 2030 from China and the US
According to the rating agency Fitch, China and the United States will provide 57% of annual solar installations until 2030. They will add 437 GW and 151 GW respectively.
China will will account for
42% of global solar installations until 2030. Thus, the country will go from 253 GW at the end of 2020, to 680 GW of photovoltaics by the end of 2030, with various installations of 3.5 and 5 GW in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai. If other renewables are added, China would have 1.2 TW of RE capacity. The share of solar in electricity generation will increase from 3.5% to 7.5%. The share of distributed generation will benefit from the mandatory installation of solar systems on residential, commercial and government buildings, and from government subsidies for small installations or self-consumption. This could increase solar capacity by 130 GW and 170 GW by the end of 2023. China will remain the main producer of silicon (64% of global production), making all ingots and wafers, and 80% of panels.
The US would see its solar installations increase from 90 GW at the end of 2020 to 241 GW at the end of 2030, providing an output of 398 TWh. Solar's share of generation would rise from 3.3% today to 9% in 2030. This outlook is driven by a large pipeline of projects from utilities and sustained momentum for small projects. Joe Biden's intentions help to improve the potential for installations. Fitch cites the risks of not achieving these targets due to restrictive import policies (Section 201, ban on silicon imports from China's Hoshine).
Another country is presented as having great potential. This is Namibia, whose solar capacity is said to be increasing from 145 MW to 440 MW
PV Tech of 7 December 2021
Editor's note: That China and the United States remain the two main countries where renewable energy will be installed is certain. That the proportion remains the same over the decade is more questionable as some countries may focus on solar, such as India. More generally, the development of renewable energy is only just beginning and all countries are setting ambitious targets that will reduce the share of these two major countries in global installations.
