L R AS Published on Sunday 5 December 2021 - n° 385 - Categories:the prices

Sea freight rates are not expected to fall in 2022. In 2023?

Sea freight rates are not expected to fall in 2022. In 2023?

International trade experts have told a UK parliamentary committee

Spot rates for the past year :

The cost of transporting containers from Asia to Europe has increased by 366% according to Lloyd's List. Longer-term contracts for the same route are five times higher (+465%). This trend has been reflected in the China-US trades. Leasing a vessel (chartering it) costs five times as much for an old "out-of-use" vessel as it did a year ago, while short-haul charters are ten times as expensive ($250,000).

Even long-term contracts under negotiation are 400% more expensive than a year ago (5 times more). This means either that shipping lines do not expect prices to come down any time soon, or that they anticipate that future capacity additions will bring prices down and therefore want to conclude lucrative, sustainable contracts before they arrive.

While there is some doubt that prices will fall in 2022, the industry believes that the global fleet could increase by 20% in 2023 as a result of new capacity coming on stream, and have an effect on prices.

This could be offset by new regulations that may be introduced by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO). It could impose a reduction in carbon emissions from the sector, which accounts for 3% of global emissions. Older, polluting ships could either be taken out of service or reduce their speed to reduce pollution, but would clog up shipping lanes and slow down the transport time.

Thus, the year 2022 is not expected to see a significant decrease in rates

Especially since in recent years, the profession has been in deficit year after year. Only the container transport companies have been profitable. The industry will therefore seek to maintain high tariffs for as long as possible and will not return to pre-crisis prices for a long time, if at all.

https://www.pv-tech.org/pv-price-watch-shipping-prices-to-fall-in-2023-with-new-capacity-coming-online/

PV Tech of1 December 2021

Editor's note: This is a typical alarmist message from a profession that wants to take advantage of the situation for as long as possible: there is no reason why the transport tariff should be much more expensive today than it was one or two years ago. The shortage of available boats is mentioned here, which forces us to maintain a high tariff. There is the appeal to the generosity of charterers in the face of a situation where ship owners have had to operate their vessels at a loss for several years. There is also the threat of a situation that will last for a long time because of newCO2 emission standards. Finally, there is the absence of any change in the situation in the short term because there will not be any more ships in 2022 because the construction of ships is long.

In reading this text, one thinks one recognises the position of the PV manufacturers who are waiting for more silicon to be available and who are taking advantage of this to drive up prices

In reality, there is the global use of the situation by the different economic sectors, as long as the public or the customers cannot react. The only thing is that this increase in prices makes customers wonder about alternatives to distant imports and look for another source of supply in the near environment. Thus, a revitalisation of local industries is to be expected at the expense of the international division of labour.

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