L R AS Published on Saturday 27 November 2021 - n° 384 - Categories:Germany
PV market analysis by pvXchange
In November, panel prices recovered not only to 2019 prices, but also to December 2018 levels. All panel categories increased by 3 percentage points in one month.
The few low-capacity products (below 300 watts for 60 cells, or 400 watts for 72 cells) are trading at unacceptable prices. They are only acceptable to replace failing panels in installations
At the end of 2018, the feed-in tariffs in Germany were 8 to 12 cts € /kWh. By the end of December 2021, 4.7 to 7.3 cts € will have to be satisfied, depending on the size of the installation and whether or not the market premium system is applied. In the meantime, the price per watt-peak has remained unchanged in euro terms, but the efficiency of the panels has increased by 20% and the power by 25% due to the increase in cell and panel size. In addition, due to the reduction in the number of panels, installation costs have been reduced, which has contributed to lower overall costs. Despite these details, it is becoming less and less attractive to plan and operate installations.
However, in recent months the number of new installations has remained relatively high, which has led to a decrease in feed-in tariffs with a degression rate of 1.4% per month. This is due to the target corridor of 2.5 gigawatts per year, (which has become an antiquity) which will cause a sharp reduction in feed-in tariffs
As the new government is focusing on photovoltaics to protect the climate, it is to be hoped that it will implement new measures to make new installations attractive. At the moment, the only booming sector is small-scale PV, where the price of panels does not play the decisive role it does in the commercial and large-scale sectors.
What does 2022 look like?
It is too early to make predictions about the new policy of the new coalition government, and about the reactions after the disappointment of the Glasgow climate conference. In principle, we can expect a very positive environment for the renewable energy sector. It will take time for this coalition to have an impact on the market, and for attractive new opportunities to arise for the renewable energy sector.
The available supply of panels and many other solar components cannot meet the current demand. This has driven up prices. The causes are well known (supply chain, transport costs, Chinese energy problems which have reduced some production capacities by 10-20%). There is no sufficient supply of panels in Europe. In addition, the flow of panel shipments has been reduced. Delivery dates are considerably delayed. Yet there is talk of a Chinese market of 100 GW in 2022!
We should not worry about the availability of panels in 2022. Panel prices are no longer expected to make great leaps forward, but will stabilise at the current high level
Manufacturers are now offering FOB prices in dollars, i.e. ex-factory prices that exclude transport costs and exchange rates. Buyers are well advised to negotiate base prices before accepting such offers. It is wise to wait until the end of the quarter, as experience shows that many manufacturers empty their warehouses by mid-December, so it is possible to get a bargain or two.
https://www.pvxchange.com/Market-Analysis-November-2021-The-price-spiral-keeps-winding-up
pvXchange of 25 November 2021
Editor's note There is a certain contradiction in the wording of this article, on the one hand the author states that "we should not worry about the availability of panels in 2022". On the other hand, it states "The available supply of panels and many other solar components cannot meet the current demand" or "There is no sufficient supply of panels in Europe."
Normally, this relative shortage of panels in Europe would cause distributors to raise their prices, and installers to delay completion of their projects.
There should be low installations for two or three quarters in 2022, until everything is back in order: we have to wait for the end of the energy shortages in China next March; we may have to wait for the reorganisation of the Chinese industrial sector. Then there is the three-month shipping delay, and then the panels have to be delivered to the installers. It would not be until the middle of the second half of the year that supplies would be sufficient. So there will be few installations in Europe in 2022
