L R AS Published on Monday 27 September 2021 - n° 375 - Categories:forecasts;
High energy prices are more of a threat than an opportunity for RE
"High energy prices are more of a threat than an opportunity for renewable energy," says Indra Overland, head of the Energy Research Centre at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. He believes it is crucial to keep
a cap on gas and electricity prices to avoid long-term political damage and a loss of support for decarbonisation plans. This is because high energy costs and instability are rarely beneficial for economic growth.
The price of gas and electricity is having an effect on the global economy, which is still dependent on fossil fuels, especially at a time when demand for energy is rising sharply and supply is becoming scarce.
This crisis will not necessarily be an opportunity for renewables, except in the long term. Overland says "high prices are more of a threat than an opportunity for renewables".
It's hard to say who will gain from higher energy prices: "some people will suffer very high energy costs, while others will gain a lot.
The worst is never certain: a mild winter, windy and sunny weather in northern Europe, more rain in the big hydro countries like Norway, Sweden and Switzerland, or the full commissioning of the Nord Stream pipeline, would be enough to change the picture.
The current crisis shows that Europe is still very dependent on Russian gas.
The large northern European countries, which are heavily dependent on renewable energy or energy imports, could be the most affected, Overland added. Tensions could rise between Russia and its various gas customers, between green and fossil forces in the EU, and between the countries of Central and Northern Europe.
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/09/20/high-energy-prices-are-more-of-a-threat-than-an-opportunity-for-renewables/
PV Magazine, 20 September 2021
Editor's note: This expert has barely considered the consequences of high energy prices. Probably out of caution, even though he mentions a profound change in supply with more renewable energy, and thus a decrease in energy price pressure.
He refused, except by barely mentioning it, to address the consequences of high energy prices. He only said that the political consequences were certain in the long term and that high prices were a threat rather than an opportunity for renewable energies! We would have liked him to elaborate on this. According to him, it is still too early to say what the effects of expensive energy will be
However, this expensive energy adds up to many price increases, and not only for solar panels: steel, copper, shipping, electronic circuits. The world is still reeling from the covid crisis. It has not yet reacted to these price hikes and therefore to these drains on the purchasing power of households, but also of companies. Heavy energy users will be the first to be affected.
The most serious thing is that there is no regulatory mechanism that would lead to a return to the old situation, that of two years ago (only!): industrialists who suffer from price increases can only try to pass on these increased costs. Some of the increases are considerable (ten times the price of freight between Asia and Europe; steel has been halved in value, the price of a kilowatt hour has more than doubled, and the increase does not seem to have stopped). What will be the economic, especially social and ultimately political consequences? The complexity of the interactions explains the caution of this expert. But the effects are yet to come. They will be inevitable and violent.
