l'Actualité du Solaire

Recent "dramatic" gains have brought the cost of solar electricity down to less than $30/MWh. New onshore solar and wind power has become the cheapest option for two-thirds of the world's population. RE is becoming a "risk" for fossil fuel-based electricity generators.

The current cost of electricity has been established by mixing 25 technologies from 7,000 projects in 47 countries. BloombergNEF has seen "dramatic" progress in solar, wind and storage over the past six months.

Solar power

In ten years, the average discounted cost of solar electricity (LCOE) has dropped from $362/MWh for fixed-support projects to $50 in the first half of 2020. The cost in tracker-equipped solar power plants has dropped from $347 / MWh to $39 / MWh.

The cost of fixed-support projects has fallen in China to $38 (-9% in the 2nd half of 2019) and ⁱⁿ India to $33 / MWh, making solar energy a particularly competitive competitor to fossil fuels.

This is a consequence of the ever-increasing size of projects, improved technology and the use of auctions, which are forcing costs to be constantly reduced.

These data were established before the pandemic. The pandemic is expected to have a significant effect on financing costs in the short and medium term, as well as on component prices. Lower coal and gas prices could protect fossil fuel production for some time by crowding out renewable energy.

The solar industry will return to below US$20/MWh in a decade (from the current US$30), predicts BloombergNEF.

Storage

The halving of costs is an incentive to use battery storage. Its average global OEL has fallen to $150/MWh, half the figure of two years ago. These gains have been made possible by manufacturing expansions and "more energy-dense chemistries". Size is also a factor in the drop in LCOE: an energy storage project today has an average capacity of 30 MWh, more than four times the 7 MWh that was the rule four years ago.

The lowering of the LCOE to US$150/MWh makes batteries the cheapest option for advanced technologies with a discharge time of two hours in Europe, China, Japan and in regions dependent on gas imports.

At $115 / MWh, China currently has the lowest LCOE for storage. This is due to "the proximity of developers to the equipment supply chain, as well as the more widespread use of cheaper LFP [lithium iron phosphate] chemicals".

Bloomberg NEF presentation: https: //about.newenergyfinance.com/blog/scale-up-of-solar-and-wind-puts-existing-coal-gas-at-risk/

https://www.pv-tech.org/news/solar-hits-new-milestones-as-renewables-become-worlds-cheapest-choice

PV Tech of 30 April

A year ago, the world of PV installers in Europe welcomed the success of electricity without subsidies, and affirmed the primacy of the wholesale market, especially in Spain and Italy. Professionals were not blind to the challenges, to the domination of the big players, to the difficulties of absorption by the grid, but commercial solar (sold on the wholesale market) seemed to be set to remain in Europe for the long term.

It was becoming a fundamental pillar of market growth and was enjoying rapid growth.

With the pandemic, the solar panorama changed. It hit solar energy without subsidy where it hurts (profitability). It has driven electricity prices down to levels not seen for years. Financiers are now tempted to abolish all loans, because the low price of electricity makes it harder for solar businesses dependent on market sales to be profitable. This is a reality that European solar energy will have to face for some time to come.

The risks extend to subsidised projects. The increase in the number of renewable energy installations, which are given priority for feeding into the grid, is helping to drive down market prices, which can then become negative. However, according to European regulations, state support ceases when negative electricity prices persist for more than six hours. According to Aurora Energy, wholesale electricity prices in Europe may not fully recover before 2025.

PV Tech of 28 April

Editor's note The radical change in the face of the solar market is certainly cyclical. It also calls for caution, because what has happened can happen again in a different form, and lead to a further collapse in the prices of renewable energies.

This change of panorama will mark the solar and even wind energy professionals.

The 11th edition of the German VDMA (ITRPV) presents the decrease in solar prices, improvements in efficiency and the role played by the largest chips in reducing costs.

Solar installations will reach 650 GW worldwide by the end of 2019. The learning speed - the speed at which price declines accelerate with wider deployment of the technology - reached 23.5% in 2019, according to the VDMA. This pace is expected to continue in the coming years, resulting in lower panel prices thanks to the use of larger solar wafers, optimised front and back cells, better panel layout, the deployment of bifacial cells, new cell types, and improved panel technology.

The study indicates that global panel production capacity exceeds 200 GW. Production costs for mono or multicrystalline panels have decreased by 10% in 2019. The average price of monocrystalline solar panels has fallen from $0.39 per watt peak in 2018 to $0.24 this year, according to the ITRPV update. Multi-crystalline products increased from $0.31 to $0.21 over the same period. Cell costs decreased by 20%.

Monocrystalline panels will account for 75% of the world market by 2020. The current standard wafer size of 156.75 mm x 156.75 mm will be replaced by M6 and M12 sizes. The growing popularity of more efficient PERC and half cell products continued last year, although larger wafers have led to larger panels. The latter lead to misleading comparisons. Therefore, VDMA recommends that performance per m² should be indicated to standardise efficiencies. Using this method, single crystal p-type PERC panels generate an average of 203 W/m² this year, and would reach 230 W in 2030. Heterojunction products currently offer an average of 210 W/m² and will offer nearly 240 W within 10 years.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/04/28/solar-costs-set-to-continue-falling-according-to-itrpv-roadmap/

PV Magazine of 28 April

The health crisis should separate the big developers from the small ones, as the crisis is tightening the financial markets. It creates an opportunity for many large operators, whether solar or wind.

Some players are announcing, with a great deal of advertising, energy purchase agreements or asset disposals. They announce the start of new projects. Is this so true?

Experts believe that the health crisis has fragmented the financing prospects of the renewable energy market in the United States and Europe. For those with cash ready to invest, projects that have become cheaper are an opportunity. But debt-backed contracts seem to be less common on both sides of the Atlantic. Some even claim that signatures are drying up.

The American RE project insurance company, Gcube, says that no one is reaching financial closure (obtaining financing) at the moment. "Most of the deals are dead now," even though banks and lawyers say otherwise.

Yet some of the biggest providers of fiscal equity for renewables in the US, including Bank of America and JP Morgan, say they are more active than ever. Large, well-capitalised developers seem to have little difficulty accessing the financing they need, reflecting the strong underlying demand for quality renewable assets.

For example, Engie has announced equity financing of up to $1.6 billion from Bank of America and HSBC, enabling the construction of 2 gigawatts of renewable energy. In another example, America's largest developer, NextEra Energy, says it has all the bank commitments it needs to get the tax credits it needs for its massive construction programme in 2020.

In contrast, many smaller developers will have trouble getting tax equity (tax credits) this year. This could force them to sell projects. "This could create project M&A opportunities for us," notes NextEra Energy, adding, "Some of these smaller developers will need a bailout plan, as they will face financial problems at the end of the year.

In Europe

Transactions are still under negotiation. Investors who do not need to resort to debt for projects should do well. "We're busier than ever," says Green Giraffe's managing director, adding: "The banks have a negative tone, but this could be part of a strategy to 'increase their margins'. For the time being, serious deals will receive funding and commitments on financial terms that are not so far off from pre-crisis levels. "There are several examples of transactions happening right now, benefiting buyers with cash.

The current market is benefiting buyers who can select the best offers.

In Europe, as in the United States,

As there is a wait-and-see attitude among lenders, the debt market is where the slowdown is most noticeable.

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/mixed-fortunes-for-renewables-investment-emerging-during-coronavirus

GreenTech Media of 27 April

Editor's note There is an economic observation that has always been made: in times of crisis, the big fish lose weight; the small fish disappear!

How to save jobs in renewable energies?

The coronavirus crisis has hit American companies hard. It has halted much of the economy. Although the most visible impacts have been in hotels and restaurants, the high-tech energy sector has also been hit hard.

The best way to stimulate a return to activity is not through the usual tax credit channel, as you have to be a builder to take advantage of it. It is preferable to obtain direct payment by the administration to finance new energy installations. This would reduce the control of banks over financing, which take 13% of the funds that pass through them. Only the best-capitalised developers can today access equity financing (tax credits). Even this system may not last long.

With advance payment, there would be no difference in the amount spent. Above all, this process would have an immediate effect on the US economy since a majority of companies have stopped hiring or reduced their workforce; 84% of companies report that their projects have been stopped, delayed or cancelled. Nearly two-thirds of businesses report that the federal relief measures did not provide any assistance; nearly half of the businesses report revenues 25-50% lower than expected.

GreenTech Media of April 29

Editor's note It is easier to compensate a completed project than to lend to someone to build. Who says he won't pocket the money and disappear?

On the other hand, in terms of economic efficiency, the prepayment formula makes it easier to raise the necessary capital and launch a construction project more quickly. It is more efficient and boosts the economy more quickly. This was what happened in 2008/2009 in the United States, which recovered more quickly than Europe, which favoured the advantage in hindsight. The disadvantage of this formula is that it shifts the control of the banks to the administration.
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THE WORLD

* A round-the-world tour of PV disturbances caused by the virus

China, home to more than 70% of the world's wafer and solar cell production capacity, will increasingly feel the economic impact of the pandemic in the second quarter. As the disease worsens in Europe, North America, South-East Asia and Latin America, foreign photovoltaic markets are expected to experience a gloomy second quarter, with no signs of a market rebound in the 3rd and 4th quarters.

Project construction in many markets has been suspended. Although Europe and Vietnam have begun to lift containment measures, many factors such as travel restrictions and mandatory self-isolation on arrival or return prohibit developers from short-term business travel.

In Europe, a member of SolarPower Europe said in early April: "covid19 is affecting industries across Europe. In the solar sector, there is a slowdown in demand. Projects are being delayed in the short term due to a reduced supply of materials and disruptions related to coronavirus.

Spain, Germany, Austria, Denmark and the Czech Republic have expressed their intention to lift restrictions on coronavirus. In 2020, the Netherlands is expected to increase its photovoltaic capacity by about 30-40% with residential, professional and ground-mounted rooftop installations.

Falling energy demand in Europe has led to lower electricity prices, which will be reflected in the LCOE, slowing down the development of renewable energy.

In the United States, many residential solar installers including Sunrun and Sungevity have laid off their employees. SunPower has stopped manufacturing panels to reduce its operating costs, and has eliminated its financial projections for 2020. Some small panel manufacturers in California have closed their doors.

The pandemic does not prevent investment and transactions from taking place in the local solar energy market. So IKEA is still investing. Lightsource BP has secured $250 million in financing for a 260 MW photovoltaic plant in Texas, and will build a 132 MW plant in Arkansas.

In India, the daily number of new patients is increasing, especially in densely populated areas. Companies have been forced to close down to comply with containment. The local media are concerned about the spread of the disease in rural areas, where the health infrastructure is fragile. The National Solar Energy Federation of India (NSEFI) said about 4 GW of ongoing projects have been delayed due to the late delivery of panels from China.

Vietnam has the fastest solar growth in Southeast Asia. It has recently published new tariffs. To benefit from them, developers must commission their installations before the end of this year. However, the pandemic is making it difficult for developers to move their projects forward: commercial negotiations can only be conducted by telephone or e-mail. They have difficulty moving forward because of issues related to signing the contract.

Supply chains disrupted

The Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand have imposed national containment that lasts between two weeks and a month. This disrupts the supply chain, leading to the postponement or cancellation of ongoing PV projects.

Brazil is suspending photovoltaic auctions while the country is in recession. In Latin America, the imposition of measures to contain the pandemic and economic downturns are having unprecedented effects on photovoltaic markets. Indeed, the region is experiencing a drop in photovoltaic demand, as well as an increase in installation costs due to currency depreciation. According to the World Bank, the pandemic is expected to reduce the gross domestic product of Latin America and the Caribbean by 4.6%. Brazil, Mexico and Argentina are the three hardest hit countries.

The pandemic is affecting the construction of large photovoltaic projects in the Middle East, but the impact is relatively small compared to other markets. The various auctions in Saudi Arabia have revealed that the market is dominated by energy investors such as ACWA Power, Marubeni, Total... which appear several times in the final lists.

In Japan, South Korea and Australia, where strict restrictive measures were imposed at the beginning of the coronavirus epidemic, the construction of photovoltaic projects is still underway, despite a slower pace.

PV InfoLink of 21 April

The number of solar projects of at least 100 MW is growing rapidly in the United States. Wood Mackenzie predicts that the number of solar projects over 120 MW-ac commissioned in the U.S. will triple from 11 in 2019 to 32 in 2021.

These project sizes are driven by business buyers and the competitive price of solar or solar + storage. In addition, these types of projects can withstand the pandemic. Supply chains are delayed but not interrupted. It is easier to work safely on a 1,000-acre solar project than on a house.

Hence a list of projects ranging from 100 MW to 300 MW. For example, BayWa r.e. secured a tax equity investment and term financing for the construction of the 134 MW Fern Solar project in Edgecombe County, North Carolina - with RBC

PV Magazine of April 29th

To find customers, Sun Power offers residential solar installations with $0 down payment and the first six months free (i.e. paid for by the company), provided that 20-year installation contracts are signed before May 31, 2020. This offer is intended to speed up the decision for homeowners. A 10- or 15-year offer is also possible with a discount.

EnergyTrend of 28 April

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As a result of the crisis, installers are making unprecedented offers to homeowners and businesses. Sunrun offers a rental contract that costs only $1 per month in the first half of the year. California's Sustainable Capital Finance, financed by NextEra Energy, charges nothing in the first year of its 15-30 year contract.

In the solar industry, where margins are tight and volume is an asset, these low prices are unprecedented. But so is the era of coronavirus.

Sales of solar installation contracts have fallen sharply in recent weeks, especially in the residential sector.

Sacrificing part of the revenues to recruit customers may prove useful for companies with sufficient financial means to get through the pandemic. This type of reduced rate offer from Sunrun and Sustainable Capital Finance is designed to rebuild their order portfolios at a time when it is difficult to reach a deal. The structure of the contract allows Sustainable Capital to pay out money to installers and developers earlier than usual, even if some permits remain blocked.

"We offer a solution to encourage consumers to act quickly so that we can move faster in the queue once the permit is granted. We also provide them with a mechanism to reduce energy costs in the first year: they can then use those savings," proposes Sustainable Capital Finance.

In all states where it operates and for solar and solar-plus-storage installations, Sunrun offers $1 per month for the first six months of the contract. Customers get credit on their regular bill, leaving them with only $1 to pay. Clients can also choose to receive a cash gift card of $1,000 to $1,250 for solar + storage systems, and $500 to $1,000 for solar installations only. In the seventh month, rent rises to its normal level.

The challenge for installation companies is not the lack of demand, Sunrun said, but rather the inability to reach customers in traditional ways, such as home sales. On the other hand, observers are sceptical and wonder: is it enough to offer additional savings to convince new customers to switch to solar in the event of a pandemic, when they have long known that solar leases and power purchase agreements can save money?

Although there is a demand for residential solar energy, the overall economic situation - highlighted by tens of millions of Americans filing for unemployment since the end of March - should prevail and encourage the postponement of contracts.

If the economy tightens further, analysts do not expect consumers to rush to sign solar installation contracts (despite some signals that demand is marginally down).

The halt in permitting and construction could impact 10% to 30% of Sustainable Capital Finance's 200 megawatt order book. After the end of the pandemic, professional (C&I) clients may be slow to become interested in solar power. Some will not need as much electricity because of the persistence of teleworking. Many of these companies will no longer be able to borrow. The volume of potential business (C&I) customers is likely to decrease.

"Right now, there is an extreme cash flow problem for some of these small installers," said Wood Mackenzie. "That's the big problem for the industry. »

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/one-response-to-the-coronavirus-giving-solar-away-for-free

GreenTech Media of 23 April

Editor's note In order for two leading companies (Sunrun and SunPower) to embark on a contract hunt, the volume of signatures must have collapsed. It's true that the number of unemployed is increasing at a dizzying rate, which doesn't encourage homeowners to embark on a major spending spree. It must therefore be deduced that the crisis will hit American (but probably also European) residential installers hard during the second half of the year and perhaps also at the beginning of 2021.

The Trump administration formally revoked the tariff exemption for bifacial panels after determining that "the exclusion of bifacial solar panels undermines the objectives of the safeguard measure". The policy change will take effect on May 18, 2020.

After many changes, the uncertainty on two-sided modules is eliminated upon publication of the notice by the U.S. Office of Trade Representatives (USTR) on April 17.

PV InfoLink of April 29
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THE PRODUCTS

* The inverter market grew 18% in 2019

According to Wood Mackenzie, the inverter market grew by 18% in 2019. Huawei, Sungrow and SMA remained the market leaders in solar inverters for the fifth consecutive year.

Power Electronics ranked fourth. It maintained its number one position in the US solar inverter market in 2019.

Fimer (ABB), the world's No. 5, experienced the largest market share gains last year due to its acquisition of ABB's photovoltaic inverter business.

There were two important factors in the market: 1) suppliers shipped a large volume of inverters and other equipment to the US at year-end, so that their projects could claim eligibility for the federal investment tax credit before the 2020 reduction.

2°) Technical improvements to the inverters contributed to market growth. Asset owners and operations and maintenance crews replaced older inverters that had reached the end of their life.

The concentration of the five main players fell slightly (-1%) to 56% market share. The share of the ten main manufacturers (76% market share) remains almost identical to that of the four previous years.

GreenTech Media of April 28

The commercial director of Invinity Energy Systems (the result of the merger between RedT Energy and Avalon Battery) says he has around 40 megawatt flow battery storage projects in the pipeline. They are intended to

solar energy producers who want to store their production.

Invinity's VS3-022 battery has a stated storage capacity of 220 kWh and a maximum continuous output of 76 kW. The annual degradation of the storage capacity would be less than 0.5%. The annual degradation in energy efficiency is less than 0.1%, according to the manufacturer. The operating temperature range is between - 5 and + 45 degrees Celsius. This battery has a life span of 25 years and 20,000 cycles.

According to the company, flow batteries are ideally suited for intensive use and of course for use with long-term charging and discharging for more than three hours, for example when coupled with intermittent renewable energies or to provide services to the grid. "They are well suited for use alongside large-scale solar photovoltaic power plants and in commercial and industrial applications".

The company has 10 MWh of systems installed.

PV Magazine of 29 April

Editor's note When reading about the advantages of flow batteries, one may wonder why they are not installed more. They represent only 1% of the world's storage facilities.

To know the multiple and recent advances in the knowledge of perovskite :

The article summarises about ten works in https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/04/28/the-week-in-perovskites/

PV Magazine

PV Magazine of 28 April

The world's second largest manufacturer of photovoltaic inverters, Sungrow Power Supply, exported 9 GW of photovoltaic inverters to foreign markets in 2019, an 87% year-on-year increase. These foreign sales offset the significant drop (32% to 8.1 GW) in solar installations in China caused by the change in policy in May 2018. The company's total shipments in 2019 reached 17.1 GW, up just 2% year-on-year.

Sungrow reported sales of $1.8 billion (+25% over 2018). This breaks down into $556m for inverters (up 7%), representing 30% of total revenues (up 35% in 2018), and $1.1bn (up 35% in 2018) for systems integration (EPC and O&M), which represents 61% of consolidated revenues (57% in 2018). The third division, storage, accounted for only $77 million.

Net profit will reach $350 million in 2019, a 10% increase over the previous year.

PV Tech of April 27th
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