L R AS Published on Monday 27 April 2020 - n° 319 - Categories:forecasts;, various sectors
The emergence of the N-type as a result of the 2020 overproduction crisis
Numerous recently announced PERC P mono production capacity expansions will be put on hold until 2021, and then probably cancelled at a later date. Manufacturers' announcements in the first two months of 2020 will be reviewed
due to the decrease in demand in 2020.
Evaluation of delivery losses due to Coronavirus
It is difficult to be precise at present. It is always the case at the beginning of the year, but particularly in the beginning of 2020. It is impossible for any research organisation to try to determine how the coronavirus will affect several end markets, on products and on rooftop or ground-based installations. One cannot rely on the top ten or twenty manufacturers, nor can one extrapolate from the leading manufacturer.
Two points can be made: on the one hand, the amount of production from China and its factory extensions in South-East Asia, and on the other, the amount "authorised" by the Chinese authorities.
Before the pandemic, world demand was expected to be exceptional in Europe, the United States, the world ... An installation volume of 150 GW was envisaged against 120 to 130 GW in 2019, including 40 GW for China and 110 GW for the rest of the world. The industry was preparing to have a production capacity of 170 GW, which would have allowed a 10 to 20% drop in prices during the year.
Demand is mainly seen in countries that import 100 % of their panels. If demand in these countries collapses, local production is not affected. Construction sites can be pushed back to 2021. This does not do business for China which has been struggling to gain market share.
Global demand could be cut in half, to 55 GW. Production should therefore be around 100 GW, and China would then absorb half of world demand. If this happens, prices will collapse along the entire c-Si value chain and will not recover by 2021. Many Chinese panel manufacturers will go out of business. It should be noted that there have been some tremors in China over the last two years in the production of silicon, ingots, wafers and cells.
Reducing costs
The other obvious operational change that will take place this year will be cost reduction, also known as silver retention.
The only past example of a fall in global production occurred in March/April 2012. At the time, the industry was dominated by the production of p-multi standard cells (Al-BSF). There was no effort to introduce new c-Si technologies into the industry. What happened then in the industry was several years of "saving money" and reducing costs in the manufacturing plants. By the time this was exhausted, LONGi had created the new monosilicon landscape that ushered in P-PERC mono as the dominant technology today.
At the time, the slowdown in the sector did not cause a purchase cycle for existing technologies. The R&D departments of the companies were poorly developed. Today, this is no longer the case. In 2020, there is a frenzy of change that has left panel buyers confused about what to do.
In early 2020, N-type was just beginning to be prioritised by industry leaders (JinkoSolar, Canadian Solar, Trina Solar for example) at a time when many little-known Chinese companies were announcing plans for multi-GW N-type (especially heterojunction).
The emergence of type N
As a result, the downturn in the industry in 2020 is very different from 2012, as technological change can now, and most likely will, occur. This could indeed be the first round of technology purchases focused on slowing down the sector, with Type N eventually moving to multi-GW production scales.
The graph distinguishes between the most advanced n-type architectures (heterojunction and retro-contact) and all other types, similar to the P-type such as n-PERT, TOPCon, ...
Between 2013 and 2016, type N production has been relatively stable, with limited investment from market leaders. The growth trajectory started in 2017, initially driven by n-PERT agreements from LG Electronics. The main increase in production is planned for 2020 and is largely due to the new N-type lines from JinkoSolar.
If the production of SunPower and Panasonic is eliminated, the growth trajectory of the N type is clear. The forecast for 2020 is largely based on the plans put in place at the end of 2019 and further capacity increases known in the first quarter of 2020.
The real impact of a technology purchasing cycle initiated by the top ten panel suppliers in China may not be seen from a production perspective until 2021. However, the simple fact that more of these major players are increasing their new Type N capacity from 500 MW to 1 GW is probably the best leading indicator that Type N could be the real next technology after single P PERC.
It is necessary to follow the evolution of the half-dozen companies that will really engage in the ramp-up of Type N production,
PV Tech refers to its recently published PV Manufacturing & Technology Quarterly report.
https://www.pv-tech.org/news/n-type-expansions-to-benefit-from-2020-downturn-driven-pv
PV Tech of April 23rd written by Finlay Colville
