l'Actualité du Solaire

The epidemic that became a Chinese health crisis had global implications. Worldwide, confirmed infections have risen from 77,000 people at the time of the article's publication at the end of February, with 2,500 deaths, to 150,000 infected people and 6,000 deaths worldwide. China, the centre of the world's photovoltaic industry, has suffered considerable disruption.

The country's economy has been shaken up The six major Chinese electricity groups saw a 40% drop in daily energy consumption in February. The number of passengers carried on 10 February had fallen by 82%. Freight transport fell by 95% during the holiday season. Transactions in the real estate market decreased by 90% in February over the same month in 2019. Car sales, which had decreased by 21% in January over January 2019, fell by 40% in February.

This is the consequence of the measures taken by the public authorities: the central government has extended the Spring Festival holidays by ten days (until the end of January). Local governments extended the protection period by another week to ensure that the quarantine periods were sufficient to stop the spread of the coronavirus. In addition, to allay public fears, some local governments issued stricter testing procedures, making it even more difficult for workers to return to work.

In addition, workers who had returned to their families for the holidays found it very difficult, if not impossible, to return to their workplace if it was located in another province. This was especially the case for Hubei and the neighbouring regions of Zhejiang and Jiangsu, which are home to many photovoltaic companies. If the workers had been able to return to work, they underwent heavy quarantine procedures - usually 14 days - and local government requirements to ensure that they posed no risk of infection. Many people decided to resign from their jobs in other cities because of transport difficulties. This has led to labour shortages in many factories, resulting in a drop in production.

In some regions, freight transport has been interrupted due to road closures. Although many PV plants can continue to operate for some time, thanks to the materials held in reserve, these supplies are not expected to last long. Without a continuous supply of raw materials and components, many plants will be forced to close down production in the near future.

International travel has also been blocked, with 70 countries applying entry restrictions or quarantine measures.

What about photovoltaics?

For silicon, some commentators believe that production has been less affected than others due to continuous production, but due to transport problems, prices are rising.

Production of multicrystalline wafers was reduced at the end of February, as most factories stopped production for the spring break and were unable to restart quickly. The main companies producing mono-Si wafers continued production throughout the holiday season and continued to operate at high production levels.

Cell production suffered more than the wafer production segment. Many companies closed during the holidays and were unable to restart quickly. Due to labour shortages, production levels will remain low for several weeks.

Most manufacturers of panels closed during the holidays and needed time to resume production. The only positive thing is that the first quarter is usually the low season for shipments of panels. The Chinese authorities should postpone installation deadlines to allow panel manufacturers to speed up production.

Restrictions on the delivery of components such as frames, joints, junction boxes, connectors, .... have prevented the completion of the panels because many manufacturers of these components are located in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, where serious epidemic precautions and strict counter-measures are in place. As a result, production volumes for these components would be low and difficult to increase rapidly.

Many suppliers of small components may not have survived the crisis due to financial difficulties.

On 31 January, China's National Energy Administration (NEA) issued an urgent note indicating that a rush to complete PV projects should be avoided. It called for priority to be given to measures to combat the epidemic.

Finally, falling demand for electricity could lead to a reduction in the injection of solar generation into the grid in favour of more regular generation such as coal-fired power generation. This would penalise solar power plants by reducing their revenues and increasing costs.

Above all, it is difficult to estimate how long the Chinese authorities will maintain their restrictions. The author concludes, "If activity is restored by the end of February, the impact should be short-term. However, if the restrictions remain in place longer, then the impact on supply in China will be significant, stifling production in the country".

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/03/14/the-weekend-read-coronavirus-disrupts/

PV Magazine of 14 March