L R AS Published on Monday 16 March 2020 - n° 313 - Categories:evolution-stat, the manufacturers
The situation of the Chinese industry at the end of February
This text was written for a monthly publication that appeared at the beginning of March,
The outbreak has delayed the commissioning of PV projects in China, which will not be connected until the end of March. The Chinese government may postpone the commissioning date of the plants. However, China's installation forecast for 2020 remains unchanged at 42.5 GW, or 30% of global demand.
By coming on stream in thefirst quarter,
The epidemic has only hampered deliveries to the United States, Japan and India, as the other countries are in low season. As a result, there has not been a large draw on stocks. The supply of panels to foreign markets is somewhat insufficient. Shortages are rife in the distribution and retail sectors.
Although production resumed in February, workers had to be quarantined before starting work again. Transport in some regions remains paralysed. This has led to silicon shortages and forced manufacturers of monosilicon monosilicon wafers to reduce production, causing short-term supply shortages. The panel sector has been hardest hit, with a severe shortage of aluminium junction boxes and frames. Deliveries were paralysed. As a result, Tier 1 panel manufacturers are operating at a maximum of 50-80% of capacity. This means that world panel production in February is estimated at only 7.5-8 GW, which is well below the average monthly production of 10-10.9 GW.
As Chinese industrial production has been interrupted by the outbreak, some foreign panel manufacturers, who depend on China for supplies of EVA film, junction boxes and PV glass, have stopped production. Overall, deliveries to foreign markets are down. The unprecedented crisis in China has put global panel manufacturers in turmoil. This could persist until April, delaying the timing of Chinese demand. While some end-users have doubts about the use of panel stocks, overseas demand has not changed much so far. As the supply of panels in China and abroad is unable to catch up with demand due to stopped shipments and material shortages, panel prices are expected to rise in the short term. Once the epidemic is contained, prices then fall steadily over the May-June period due to excess capacity.
As a result of the decline in the production of multi-crystalline wafers and cells, the supply of multi-Si panels will be limited, particularly in the Indian market, where the rush is underway to finish before the end of the year.
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/03/12/short-term-symptoms/
PV Magazine of 12 March
