L R AS Published on Monday 16 December 2019 - n° 302 - Categories:forecasts;
Who will win in the energy transition?
Not all countries are equal in the energy transition. For example, the G7 countries have developed economies, complex geographies and energy systems. These countries are likely to have both fossil fuels and renewable energy resources. Therefore, they are likely to gravitate
rather in the middle of the GeGaLo index than up or down. This index counts solar and wind radiation per square kilometre and per inhabitant. Space has value. While countries developed with coal or oil, now with renewable energy, space and technology become more important. Energy becomes free.
The first G7 country is Japan, in 26th position out of 150, which is an importer of fossil fuels. If it wants to free itself from this constraint, it has to use its maritime zone to install wind turbines.
France is also in a good position in 37th place. It has no fossil resources, but it has good solar resources by European standards, and has many overseas territories with huge maritime areas.
Spain is just behind France because its solar resources are even better than those of our country.
With the exception of Brazil, almost all of the top 50 countries are relatively small. They are small in terms of population and economy, but many of them have a large surface area. As a result, Mongolia, Libya and Australia have very high scores.
India (ranked 97th), Germany (102nd), China (104th), Canada (108th), the United States (110th) and Australia (112th) are very close and are in the lower part of the ranking. What characteristics do they share? India and Germany are net importers of fossil fuels, but also have considerable coal reserves and production. They also have limited space due to their relatively high population density. Similarly, China is a major importer of oil and gas, but also a major producer of oil, gas and of course coal. The same applies to the United States, Australia and Canada, but with a greater emphasis on oil and gas. In the case of Australia, large-scale coal production and exports also play a considerable role, with oil and gas resources
Some African countries are in conflict such as Cameroon and Chad. Others such as Mauritania, Mali, Somalia and the Central African Republic are in the top twenty! The solar revolution is going to be huge in Africa, except in the continent's major oil exporters like Angola and Nigeria. The latter may also switch to solar power, but will lose their fossil fuel export markets.
The European countries in the top 25 are Estonia, Finland, Sweden, Cyprus and Iceland (mostly in northern Europe).
Yemen, Iraq, the Democratic Republic of Congo, North Korea, Qatar, Venezuela and Sudan occupy the last seven positions. Problems such as politically oppressive governments, armed conflicts and serious economic problems complicate the energy transition.
To access the GeGaLo index (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/gegalo-index-all-countries-ranked-indra-overland/?trackingId=HVa75i9UQx%2BmEa%2FIQtnE0g%3D%3D
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/12/11/winners-do-not-always-win/
PV Magazine of 11 December
Editor's note This ranking has the merit of highlighting the geostrategic changes linked to renewable energies. It is based on the space available for the installation of solar power plants or wind turbines.
Like all good Europeans, this ranking attributes to the different countries a will to develop which is not as evenly distributed as one would like to say. For example, Japan, without primary resources, wanted to develop and reached the 3rd economic rank in the world. Conversely, many other countries without any energy resources have not developed. The oil-producing countries have great wealth, but they have not used it to stimulate their economies.
This willingness to act and develop will be found in the implementation of renewable energies. We will see that the same countries will have made the shift towards new energies and that the same countries will have missed their chance. The latter will still be calling for international financial and technological assistance.
It is far from certain that the economic landscape will have changed significantly in a few decades' time.
