L R AS Published on Monday 9 December 2019 - n° 301 - Categories:storage, power plant storage
Sharp fall in battery prices
Battery prices, which were over $1,100 per kilowatt-hour in 2010, fell 87% to $156/kWh in 2019. By 2023, average prices will be close to $100/kWh, according to the latest BloombergNEF forecast.
Cost reductions in 2019 are due to increased order volumes, growth in sales of battery electric vehicles and continued penetration of high energy density cathodes. In the future, the introduction of new packaging models and lower manufacturing costs will lead to lower prices in the short term. In the medium term, "production costs will fall due to improvements in manufacturing equipment and increased energy density at the cathode and cell level. Expansion of existing facilities also provides a less expensive way for companies to increase capacity. "There is also an increasing level of standardization in cell design.
When cumulative demand exceeds 2 TWh in 2024, prices will fall below $100/kWh. This price is considered to be the point around which electric vehicles will begin to reach price parity with ICE-based vehicles.
The electrification of commercial vehicles, such as delivery vans, is becoming increasingly attractive. This will lead to a further differentiation of cell specifications, as commercial and high-end passenger vehicle applications are likely to opt for parameters such as cycle life in the event of a continuous fall in prices. However, for consumer electric passenger vehicles, low battery prices will remain the most critical objective.
There is much less certainty on how the industry will further reduce prices from $100/kWh in 2024 to $1/kWh by 2030. This is not because it is impossible, but rather because there are a variety of options and paths that can be taken.
BloombergNEF of December 3rd
Editor's note The recognition of an average price of $156/kWh in 2019 certainly takes into account the significant drop in the price of lithium and cobalt in international markets. This decline in raw material prices is related to precautionary purchases as demand has shifted. Will BloombergNEF's assertion be maintained in the event of an upturn in raw material prices? If they rise, demand will be postponed again and productivity efforts will be absorbed by commodity prices. Obviously, a technological innovation or a different distribution of nickel, cobalt, magnesium, etc. within batteries would have an effect on prices. One should only consider these forecasts as a possible indication of the future!
