AS Published on Tuesday 20 April 2021 - n° 359 - Categories:PV Watch
A look at how some Chinese industries operate
For nine months, panel buyers have been lulled by the "sweet music" of a shortage. Almost every month, a news item emerges that seems as decisive as the previous one and justifies a price increase. There was the explosion in a silicon factory, a flood, a shortage of glass, a rise in freight, the rise in silver and its corollary silver paste, plastic components. At first you believe it, especially as there is a one-way message. Some time later the figures appear, which put things into perspective. Where do we stand?
AS Published on Tuesday 13 April 2021 - n° 358 - Categories:PV Watch
A look at the conflict in the PV sector
On the one hand, the silicon foundries who want to take advantage of their position at the beginning of the chain, and on the other, the panel assemblers who have understood that panel installers do not want to hear about price increases. They have already forced the glassmakers to remove the price increases they wanted to impose, and they are trying to impose this attitude on the foundries. Who will win this dispute? Depending on who wins, the repercussions will vary.
AS Published on Tuesday 6 April 2021 - n° 357 - Categories:PV Watch
A look at the fragile halt to the rise in the price of silicon
The world has been living with a rise in the price of silicon for nine months. This rise appears to have been orchestrated as explained last week (A look at the organised silicon shortage). Like all commodity booms, it is violent, long-lasting and at some point the movement runs out of steam. Have we reached this inflection point in the movement? Is this just a pause in the inevitable rise in the price of silicon and therefore of photovoltaic panels? The question is being asked at the moment. The question is too important to be left unanswered
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AS Published on Tuesday 30 March 2021 - n° 356 - Categories:PV Watch
A look at the organised silicon shortage
The entire photovoltaic industry is watching the meteoric rise in the price of silicon. There seems to be no end in sight. It is true that commentators take the information they are given, without thinking too much, and especially without putting this "beautiful shortage" into perspective.
This price increase will sooner or later be reflected in the price of panels, in the installations and in the cost of the electricity supplied. Will this call grid parity into question? The emergence of photovoltaics as a priority source of energy?
AS Published on Tuesday 23 March 2021 - n° 355 - Categories:PV Watch
A look at the clouds rising over the PV
The photovoltaic world has been living on "a cloud" for the last twenty years. Falling panel prices, increasing developer skills, new products (trackers) have brought the price per kilowatt hour below the costs of other types of generators.
The world of PV is changing due to two factors that have been apparent since the beginning of 2021.The good conditions that prevail in PV will deteriorate. We might as well be aware of this and anticipate it.
AS Published on Tuesday 16 March 2021 - n° 354 - Categories:PV Watch
A look at what the current silicon shortage means
While China is the country still subject to economic planning and where fundamental decisions are taken at the level of the Communist Party, it is surprising that shortages of glass, and currently silicon, are being announced when the manufacturers of the sector have scheduled some 40 capacity increase projects with huge investment figures at the beginning of 2020.It is surprising that shortages of glass, and currently of silicon, are being announced when manufacturers in the sector have scheduled some 40 capacity expansion projects with huge investment figures for early 2020. It is a step to believe that the shortage was organised to see what would happen, but it is perhaps necessary to take it, unless we can find a way to make it happen.It is perhaps necessary to take this step, unless the "disruption" that this shortage represents intervenes to redistribute the cards within the sector. In any case, it is significant and should be taken as such.
AS Published on Tuesday 9 March 2021 - n° 353 - Categories:PV Watch
A look at the rise in prices in the PV sector
A significant rise in silicon prices occurred in February and is affecting the various stages of the photovoltaic sector. Installers are worried: will they get the panels they need? Will their budget not be affected? The forecasts are not very good because the world demand for the construction of power stations has never been so strong, and reinforced by the 2020 construction sites which had to be postponed to 2021. The current year looked like a magnificent one. Will it be? Will we manage to supply silicon in sufficient quantities? The subject deserves analysis. Indeed, what if the Chinese took advantage of their quasi-monopoly on the production of panels to impose their world domination?
AM AS Published on Monday 1 March 2021 - n° 352 - Categories:PV Watch
A look at the evolution of photovoltaics: the Trina Solar solution
What will be the evolution of producers in the photovoltaic sector? They have embarked on a race for volume. This has enabled them to eliminate a number of intermediate manufacturers who did not follow this race. From now on, the profession is concentrated in a handful of manufacturers, whether in the production of silicon or panel wafers (the only one that escapes the production of cells because often panel producers have kept this activity). While the ten leading panel manufacturers already provide 81% of world demand, can and should we move towards further concentration? The strategy to be adopted is to be determined quickly, because by 2021, concentration will probably reach 90%. The sector is faced with a choice. Trina Solar has already made it. It should be a winner.
AS Published on Tuesday 23 February 2021 - n° 351 - Categories:PV Watch
A look at the racketeering suffered by Europeans for the benefit of PV manufacturers
A look at the racketeering suffered by Europeans for the benefit of PV manufacturers
The dictionary defines racketeering as "Extortion of money by intimidation or violence". This seems to fit perfectly with Chinese panel manufacturers, who have organised price hikes and "adapted" tariffs to attract the customers of 2nd or 3rd tier manufacturers to drive them out of business. They have strengthened their grip on the supply of panels in order to be able to organise prices, control distribution, and earn staggering net operating margins. We have entered the age of the racket of panel users. 2021 will see the confirmation of this trend.
AS Published on Monday 15 February 2021 - n° 350 - Categories:PV Watch
A look at the opposition between the economy and ecological ideology
There has always been a fringe of the population that has sought to steer the decisions of the leaders in their direction. The difference with previous movements is that the climate has an effect on everyone's life. To have the "ambition" to change it is already pretentious. Above all, it is difficult to achieve. It affects all aspects of social organisation. To want to change it, to reduce global warming to 1.5°C, is to change the world. Everyone has to agree, not just a small group. The myth of Sysiphe is not far off.
AS Published on Tuesday 9 February 2021 - n° 349 - Categories:PV Watch
A look at the approximation of the LCOE through a concrete case study
We are talking about from LCOE, from average cost of electricity. This would mean that there is only one per solar power plant. Is this an abuse of language? A huge approximation? A genuine scientific error? And yet this is what a study by a subsidiary of the International Energy Agency leads to! So should the notion of LCOE be rejected? Or to know that it is only a simplified approximation for the appreciation of a reality?!!
AS Published on Tuesday 2 February 2021 - n° 348 - Categories:PV Watch
A look at approximations of the rate of return of a PV power plant and thus of the LCOE
For a layman, there is a light intensity/solar irradiation that provides a quantity of energy. There is a production figure depending on the panels.
In order to establish this figure, there must be a simplification of the data, schematisation of the production, approximation of the calculations. Why is this? Because we don't know enough about the different factors that influence production. However, the rate of return of a plant is essential to determine the economic and financial viability of a PV installation. So how do you do it? This article discusses the different components of establishing a rate of return and the difficulties of arriving at an "exact figure".
AS Published on Tuesday 26 January 2021 - n° 347 - Categories:PV Watch
A look at Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs)
Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) are mysterious because they hide the principal, the final price and the rate of return of the agreement. The conclusion of a PPA is reduced to a communication operation, whereas it is a management action by companies that stabilise the cost of energy for a period of time.
Announcements of the conclusion of contracts are multiplying. They are located in different European countries. However, these contracts are starting to have effects that are beginning to be perceptible and that will recompose the European, but also the French, energy fabric. The future is being built today with the PPAs.
AS Published on Tuesday 19 January 2021 - n° 346 - Categories:PV Watch
A look at Chinese espionage that covets European R&D
Would the Chinese Aiko Solar be spying in Europe? No. Absolutely not! He only seeks to establish good relations with the most eminent European researchers to exchange, compare experiments, record progress and learn about technological processes in order to improve the life of Europeans! Nothing more! Nothing less! Who sees malice in this action of support to often neglected researchers?
L R AS Published on Tuesday 12 January 2021 - n° 345 - Categories:PV Watch
Looking ahead to the likely rise in panel prices in 2021
Such industrial concentration in the production of silicon and panels has been achieved that Chinese manufacturers can afford to set their prices and impose them on the rest of the world. There is no longer any alternative to Chinese production. Consumers in the rest of the world will pay for a moment of bewilderment that occurred a few years ago. This situation of wealth transfer from Europe to China has only just begun. It will persist for many years until we become aware of the situation and establish the means to relocate production units.