L R AS Published on Tuesday 8 March 2022 - n° 396 - Categories:Thread of the Week
The Week in Review n° 396
THIS WEEK'S NEWS HIGHLIGHTS.
The texts to read this week:
FRANCE :
Renewable energies are now irreversible
The collapse in the cost of renewable energy has made it more attractive than electricity from coal or gas. This situation seems to be definitive. The expansion of RE will continue. Provided that we manage to provide electricity at night without wind. Renewable energies must be able to account for more than 50% of electricity consumption.
"Renewable energies have already won," says Sébastien Clerc, CEO of Voltalia.
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L R AS Published on Wednesday 2 March 2022 - n° 395 - Categories:News of the Month
Highlights of the week to 27 February
What to remember from the week to 27 February
Silicon deliveries will not be able to increase much in 2022. The imbalance will grow. The silicon shortage will increase during the year. Prices will rise even more. Until the production price of solar electricity has risen above the cost of the kilowatt hour from fossil alternatives! This case is possible.
It is developed in A look at the expected increase in the price of silicon
This is the focus of this week's news
Other points to remember:
1st:
Asia is a big draw for European developers. IHS Markit estimates that half of the world's installations over the next five years will be in the region
Portuguese renewable energy company EDPR moves to Singapore: Portugal's EDPR has acquired Singapore's Sunseap
In the same week Lightsource BP is looking for power plants to build in Asia. To reach 25 GW installed by 2025, it has opened an office in Taiwan, plans to open one in Singapore soon in Singapore, then in China, Vietnam
2nd point to remember:
- Tongwei's capacity expansion plans (+37% in 2022) will outpace market growth. All the big players are doing the same. And Tongwei's 2021 accounts Tongwei in 2021: strong growth
3rd point to remember:
- The five biggest players in the various stages of photovoltaic manufacturing hold 80% of the Chinese and therefore global market. Eighteen months ago, this 80% was held by ten companies! This is an indication of accelerating concentration. Chinese production in 2021, in value and volume
AS Published on Tuesday 1 March 2022 - n° 395 - Categories:PV Watch
A look at the expected increase in the price of silicon
Of course, all raw materials have seen their prices soar. Silicon is probably the material that has risen the most in price: a 400% increase (a fivefold increase) between June 2020 and February 2022. As with other commodities, one might expect a gradual normalisation of prices. It seems that this may not be the case in 2022.
Does this shortage herald future supply difficulties for vehicle battery components (lithium, cobalt, manganese, etc.)?
L R AS Published on Monday 21 February 2022 - n° 395 - Categories:Thread of the Week
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L R AS Published on Monday 21 February 2022 - n° 394 - Categories:Thread of the Week, News of the Month
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AS Published on Monday 21 February 2022 - n° 394 - Categories:PV Watch
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AS Published on Monday 21 February 2022 - n° 394 - Categories:Thread of the Week
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L R AS Published on Saturday 19 February 2022 - n° 393 - Categories:Thread of the Week
Things to remember in week 393
E. Macron's opinion: the PV is in the middle of the road
In his recent speech, the President of the Republic analysed the situation very well. At the same time, he supported nuclear energy by advocating the construction of at least six nuclear reactors, with a first commissioning in 2035. At the same time, he expressed his confidence in renewable energies, presenting a target for 2050 of 100 GW of installed solar power. The President of the Republic has announced a target of 100 GW PV in 2050
Why two such different orientations?
L R AS Published on Saturday 19 February 2022 - n° 392 - Categories:Thread of the Week
Things to remember in week 392
The photovoltaic press has been reporting on three major issues this week, reports Solar News
(click on the blue links to read the whole article, or go to www.actu-solaire.fr)
A°) A first estimate of the cost of intermittency
How can we be sure that a large enough number of
L R AS Published on Saturday 19 February 2022 - n° 391 - Categories:Thread of the Week
Highlights of week 391
On the one hand, there are the climate activists who believe that not enough is being done to combat greenhouse gas emissions. emissions since the 2°C limit will be exceeded in 2050, without the planet being at "net zero" emissions
On the other side,
L R AS Published on Tuesday 15 February 2022 - n° 393 - Categories:PV Watch
A look at E. Macron's speech
At first sight, E. Macron's speech is gentle on the two opposing opinions, the supporters of nuclear power and the defenders of renewable energy. Is this an electioneering statement? Or is it the result of his analysis of the situation? He sought to gain the support of the already known energies, while new energies are slow to take hold.
L R AS Published on Monday 14 February 2022 - n° 393 - Categories:Thread of the Week
The Week in Review n°393
THIS WEEK'S NEWS HIGHLIGHTS.
The texts to read this week:
FRANCE :
In an election period, fishing for votes is normal. So don't take promises as a commitment!
It's time for election promises. E. Macron would be wrong not to take advantage of it. It is not because he made a promise that he should honour it. By announcing very long-term objectives to pro-nuclear and renewable energy advocates, he has a thousand opportunities to break his word. He will have every reason to evoke new facts, new constraints. If he is reminded of his promises, if he is re-elected and says he is working on it. If he is not, he will accuse his successor of having taken bad decisions...
The President of the Republic has announced a target of 100 GW PV in 2050
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The call for tenders for rooftop PV installations has seen demand concentrated on two developers.
In the tender for the installation of solar roofs between 0.5 and 8 megawatts, two companies were awarded 60% of the auction volume. The prices remain stable compared to previous calls for tenders. New Aquitaine, with one third of the successful bids, is almost double the awards made to the next two regions (18% and 13%) with the highest number of agreements
The result of the tender for roofs from 0.5 to 8 MW (called PPE2)
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L R AS Published on Tuesday 8 February 2022 - n° 392 - Categories:PV Watch
A look at California's 'net zero by 2040' programme
All too often, when it comes to energy transition, we talk in general terms, without really knowing the costs, the constraints and the advantages. This is the domain of convictions, assertions, and even beliefs. This attitude creates gaps between those who adhere and those who refuse. The energy transition is a good thing if it succeeds in eliminatingCO2 emissions and reducing global warming under satisfactory conditions! It is to be examined if it has to reduce the lifestyle of the population, for the sake of the climate. For once, a state, California, has lent itself to the game of implementing a programme to achieve net zero carbon emissions. That is the purpose of this text.
L R AS Published on Monday 7 February 2022 - n° 392 - Categories:Thread of the Week
The Week in Review n°392
THIS WEEK'S NEWS HIGHLIGHTS.
The texts to read this week:
FRANCE :
The feed-in tariff for areas up to 500 kWp
The new tariff for areas up to 500 kWp was expected. It is characterized by the stability of the purchase price compared to the previous quarter
The feed-in tariffs for the first quarter of 2022
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THE TREND
The surplus of installations to cope with intermittency is impressive
For the first time, figures have been put on the installations that need to be put in place to cope with the intermittency of solar energy production. Unlike fossil fuel power plants, which produce X MWh of power that is immediately available and corresponds to the X MWh of users (minus line losses), renewable energies are characterised by their intermittency. Therefore, if on a given day X MWh is produced, the next day only half or a third less may be produced. Additional installations are therefore needed to deal with this almost immediate and, above all, unpredictable shortfall. Batteries are therefore needed to supply energy when the sun is no longer shining, and to cope with subsequent periods when the sun is not as intense as before. California has put a price tag on the additional infrastructure that needs to be installed to ensure continued use by consumers. The surplus to be expected is impressive.
Consequence of intermittency on the volume of infrastructure to be installed!
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Developers would like to know the direction of panel prices in 2022 and in particular those of the second half of the year when silicon production units are expected to come on stream. Economic logic suggests that prices will fall more or less quickly by the end of 2022. The reality is that silicon manufacturers will continue to try to gain as much as possible from users by keeping the price high. The other players in the industry (wafer producers) have already "adjusted" their prices upwards in recent weeks. The silicon manufacturers, on the other hand, are backing up the start-ups with long-term sales contracts, so that not a single kilogram of silicon is left unsold and they can claim that there will be a shortage of raw material again. Daqo, which is generally well-informed, does not see prices falling in 2022.
BloombergNEF has launched into 2022 forecasts, both in price and volume, with of course a comparison to 2021. It preferred to launch a very wide forecast range for global demand as if the uncertainties or rather the difficulties of forecasting were still very great.
World photovoltaics in 2021 and 2022 in price and volume
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.PHOTOVOLTAICS :
The change from P-type to N-type should start this year and impose the new standard in 2026
N-type technology is constantly being discussed, but P-type is still the dominant technology at the beginning of 2022. It seems that the changeover will start this year under the impulse of three panel manufacturers (JinkoSolar, JA Solar and LONGi) with the help of the two big cell manufacturers (Tongwei and Aiko). This change in technology is the only way to increase the efficiency of the panels in the coming years. An explanation is given of the timetable and the evolution of the production
When and how will the transition from P-type to N-type take place?
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.A (downward) correction of theCO2 emitted during the production of silicon and wafers
Silicon and wafer production technology has made great strides in recent years. This results inCO2 savings that were not reflected in the assessments of five or ten years ago. Supporters of photovoltaics welcome this "discovery" or "correction". However, it does not change anything in the nuclear-solar quarrel, except that it confirms that solar energy creates less greenhouse gases than previously thought.
CO2 emissions during the production of silicon would be half as high as announced
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.The world is looking for new power plant sites or residential facilities
At a time when it is becoming increasingly difficult to find space to install new solar power plants, new locations are being sought, whether on lakes, reservoirs or ponds. There is also thought being given to installing panels at the place of use, i.e. in the city. However, urban agitation, pollution, and unsuitable situations are still making people think. It will be necessary to find places of installation unless another technology is used to increase the output of the panels and thus the energy produced...
What is the effect of the city on a solar panel?
The success of floating PV plants
A PV device that follows the sun to increase energy output
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.THE WORLD :
What is the share of solar, wind+solar, renewable energy in Europe in 2021?
A review of the production of solar, wind+solar and renewable energies in Europe compared to gas and coal. In 2021, the various renewable energies provided as much energy as fossil fuels (37% of consumption). The former are progressing slowly, the latter are regressing. Wind + solar provided only 19% of the Union's consumption in 2021. This is very little and very slow.
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In the United States, customs duties on imported panels will be maintained, and there will be freedom to import two-sided panels!
President Trump had wanted to rebuild a photovoltaic industry by introducing tariffs. His successor is maintaining these import duties for four years, but he is allowing free entry for two-sided panels, which are the most popular in the United States because they are the cheapest! Some people question the real effect of these taxes, considering that the renaissance of this industry has not taken place! Is this true? Is it wrong? What is certain is that there is hardly ever any information published on the results or the growth of production on the other side of the Atlantic
What is the degree of reconstruction of a PV industry in the US?
PV panel imports subject to tariffs, bi-facials excluded
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.Power purchase agreements have grown in line with global demand in 2021. US signs 2/3 of contracts
The growth of power purchase agreements (PPAs) in 2021 is comparable to the growth of global panel demand. Only in the first case, the contracts are signed, whereas the demand is translated into the operation of power plants... The centralisation of two-thirds of the signatures in the United States over-represents this region to the detriment of the rest of the world. This is because digital companies make heavy use of this long-term energy purchase. However, they are mainly domiciled in North America.
PPAs have already taken on a significant role in future installations, since the volume signed already represents one-sixth of installations, and this trend will increase in the coming years.
Global clean energy purchases by PPAs in 2021
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MANUFACTURERS :
Scatec has mainly managed its merger with SN Power in 2021, limiting the construction of new plants, which will have an impact on 2022
The merger at the beginning of 2021 led to a strong increase in turnover and higher EBITDA growth. However, this merger between a power plant developer and a hydroelectric dam operator has slowed down the power plant construction business in favour of an internal reorganisation. This will continue in the new financial year. It is only in the financial year 2023 that there will be a revival of growth.
Scatec in 2021: merger with SN Power
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Maxeon returns to sell in the US with product guarantee and insurance
To ensure its commercial return to the United States, Maxeon now guarantees its panels for forty years and backs up this claim with an insurance contract.
Maxeon to sell panels to the commercial-industrial segment in the US
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L R AS Published on Tuesday 1 February 2022 - n° 391 - Categories:PV Watch
A look at an unattainable energy transition under current conditions
Pressure from climate activists has led to a sudden emergence of new needs: people want to replace fossil fuels with renewable energy. For example, people want to replace internal combustion engines with clean engines. The pressure has been so great on a balanced economic world that the producers of these panels or batteries want or are obliged to switch to mass production, which uses a large proportion of the raw material production. The foreseeable needs become even greater than the commodities available on the ground. This upsets previous balances and leads to price increases. The speed and scale of the change disrupts the world economy, which defends itself by raising prices. As demand does not seem to be frightened by the price increases, they will continue until it is no longer worth buying panels or batteries!