L R AS Published on Wednesday 15 June 2022 - n° 408 - Categories:News of the Month
This week's highlights, as of 12 June (n°408)
The main point
The major news this week is US President Biden's decision to lift tariff restrictions on panel imports from South East Asia. This decision is in line with the installer lobby, but it takes away the prospect of rebuilding a panel production industry on US soil.
L R AS Published on Wednesday 15 June 2022 - n° 408 - Categories:PV Watch
A look at the explosion in demand and prices for panels in the second half of 2022
The major news this week is US President Biden's decision to lift tariff restrictions on panel imports from South East Asia. This decision is in line with the installer lobby, but it takes away the prospect of rebuilding a panel production industry on US soil.
The extra buying by US installers will be superimposed on the increased Chinese and European demand. Prices will rise sharply in the second half of 2022 and into 2023. There will be no lull in prices.
L R AS Published on Wednesday 8 June 2022 - n° 407 - Categories:News of the Month
This week's highlights, as of 29 May (No 407)
The main point
The economic and financial conditions in the photovoltaic field have completely reversed compared to two years ago. Everything has changed. The price of silicon, and therefore of panels, and the price of metals have risen dramatically. The freight rate is four times higher than before Covid. Electricity prices are nothing like they were twelve months ago! What does this mean for the industry (developers, builders, manufacturers, subcontractors)?
1st incidental point: China will double its PV installations in 2022 over 2021, absorbing an additional 53 GW. High demand will continue
China to double its wind and solar capacity by 2025
2nd accessory point: The American company AES has developed a panel installation robot. This cuts installation time in half and avoids repetitive movements
First automated panel installation robot
3rd (subsidiary) point (subsidiary) WoodMac discusses what would be needed for Europe to have a photovoltaic industry that meets its needs
What is missing to revive the PV production sector in Europe!
Other interesting points :
Modification of the Horizeo project (1 GWp)
France commissioned 484 MW of solar in Q1 compared to 736 MW a year ago.
Price increases for battery materials create uncertainty for EV sales
L R AS Published on Wednesday 8 June 2022 - n° 407 - Categories:PV Watch
A look at solar 2022, chronicle of a disaster foretold
The economic and financial conditions in the photovoltaic field have completely reversed compared to two years ago. Everything has changed. The price of silicon, and therefore of panels, and the price of metals have soared. The freight rate is four times higher than before Covid. Electricity prices are nothing like they were twelve months ago! What does this mean for the industry (developers, builders, manufacturers, subcontractors)?
L R AS Published on Tuesday 31 May 2022 - n° 406 - Categories:News of the Month
This week's highlights, as of 29 May
The most important point : Covid was treated in Shanghai by a severe lockdown for several weeks. Workers could not get to the factory, production could not be shipped, goods could not be loaded onto ships. A few weeks later, this led to supply difficulties in Europe. Wholesalers do not know when they will be delivered, for how much, at what price. Developers are running out of panels. The shortage of electronic chips interrupts the production of inverters and batteries. Hence :
A look at the supply difficulties of the photovoltaic sector
L R AS Published on Tuesday 31 May 2022 - n° 406 - Categories:PV Watch
A look at the supply difficulties of the photovoltaic sector
The photovoltaic industry seems to be hampered by supply difficulties. Wholesalers no longer know when they will receive a shipment, how much and at what price. Without panels, developers have to stop building plants. As always, the difficulties extend to electronic circuits for inverters and batteries; the whole profession is affected by these difficulties, which do not seem likely to be resolved quickly.
The European authorities want to develop solar energy. How will they do this if there are no or not enough panels?
L R AS Published on Wednesday 25 May 2022 - n° 405 - Categories:News of the Month
What to remember this week, as of 22 May 2022
The main point
The week was marked by the publication of the European Commission's REPowerEU programme. It focuses on renewable energies to replace Russian gas, on the training of qualified personnel, on accelerating the authorisation of power plant installations and, secondarily, on supporting manufacturers by developing research and development. Hence the presentation texts
AS Published on Wednesday 25 May 2022 - n° 405 - Categories:PV Watch
A look at a reason for hope: the President/Vice-President of the European Commission debate
In recent days, the pages of the newspapers have been filled with the words of the President of the European Commission, with her REPowerEU programme. It was supposed to be aimed at reducing dependence on Russian gas. This gas is being targeted because it is a hydrocarbon which makes environmentalists react. We could just as easily have reacted against Russian food imports such as wheat, barley, sunflower oil, aluminium, ... We preferred to target Russian gas! To provide an alternative to this gas target, the use of renewable energies has been favoured, but it will take time for the multiplication of panels or windmills to provide energy independence.
Curiously, in this very ecologist environment, another very authoritative voice was heard two or three days after this programme was described. It was unexpected. It indicated a second vision of Europe. It preached for greater lucidity, for another policy, to announce that the purchasing power of Europeans would be permanently affected.
Do we need soothing announcements or lucid words?
L R AS Published on Tuesday 17 May 2022 - n° 404 - Categories:News of the Month
This week's highlights, as of 15 May
The main point
The European Commission is expected to present its roadmap for tackling the EU's dependence on Russian gas, and to steer countries towards what is being called the green transition with more renewable electricity and a limitation or halt in fossil fuel consumption. But will it be able to avoid noisy and ill-advised advice? BloombergNEF (Two scenarios for Europe's energy transition according to BloombergNEF) has presented the two alternatives, which are discussed below.
A look at an energy transition that is off to a bad start
Item1: Report on the Intersolar Europe trade fair in Munich
Two magazines presented their vision of this event
Live from Intersolar on day 3 by PV Tech
Live from Intersolar on day 2 by PV Tech
The 1st day of Intersolar Europe according to PV Magazine
The 2nd day of Intersolar Europe according to PV Magazine
and
In short, hardware or software presented at Intersolar :
2nd side issue: The power purchase agreements in March combine both the war in Ukraine and an increase in electricity prices. This was reflected in the business in Ukraine's neighbouring countries and in the conclusion of contracts in Western Europe
What is the effect of the war in Ukraine on the PPAs
The pace of PPAs signed in Europe slowed down in March
Issue 3 point (subsidiary) 3rd point (subsidiary): In France, the rising costs of PV components lead the outgoing government to announce a freeze and then an indexation for installations under 500 kW
Tariff freeze for installations under 500 kW, then indexation
Other interesting points :
Is solar competitive in terms of cost and sustainability compared to other energies?
L R AS Published on Tuesday 17 May 2022 - n° 454 - Categories:News of the Month
Highlights of the week to 27 August
Highlight The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act is of considerable importance both for renewable energies and for the U.S. economy as a whole.
The US Inflation Reduction Act was introduced in mid-August 2022. It was well received at the time. It is still at the root of many investment decisions in the United States. Projects are multiplying; money is spreading throughout the economy; all regions feel stimulated. This law has transformed the country's future.
AS Published on Tuesday 17 May 2022 - n° 404 - Categories:PV Watch
A look at an energy transition that's off to a bad start
A look at an energy transition that is off to a bad start
The European Commission is expected to present its roadmap for tackling the EU's dependence on Russian gas, and to steer countries towards what is called the green transition with more renewable electricity and a limitation or halt in fossil fuel consumption. But will it be able to avoid noisy and ill-advised advice? BloombergNEF has presented the two alternatives, which are discussed below.
R AS Published on Tuesday 10 May 2022 - n° 403 - Categories:PV Watch
A look at the cicada and the ant
There is a schizophrenia in the population and in mentalities: we are told about the danger of climate change and nobody moves. We are told about the ecological transition and no one pays attention to the way in which the products concerned are produced. We are told about energy independence from Russian gas at 30% or 40% of European needs, and we are told about 90% dependence on Chinese panels. They talk and don't act!
L R AS Published on Wednesday 20 April 2022 - n° 402 - Categories:News of the Month
This week's highlights, as of 17 April
The main pointis the upcoming increase in the price of panels.
The Chinese have figured out how to deal with the silicon shortage to increase panel prices: claim that more production is not possible, that there is a shortage of silicon during 2021, and then publish a 46% increase in panel production (according to official Chinese figures: Chinese production in 2021, by value and volume).For this to have been achieved, more silicon must have been produced because of losses at every stage of a panel's production. A little forced, a little chosen, the congestion of the ports will be mentioned in a few months, the time when the ships cannot leave the Chinese ports because of the quarantine in Shanghai and Ningbo. Already, JinkoSolar and the China Non-Ferrous Metal Association are warning that panel prices will rise. As the pandemic will only last a short time, the public is being prepared for further shortages of components essential to panel production (junction boxes, glass sheet, insufficient ethylene for the production of EVA, etc.). All it takes is a good organisation to ensure that the world is forced to pay much more for each panel. This is what will happen.
A look at the new surge in panel prices that is coming
Incidental point1: the pandemic is disrupting economic life in China. The authorities are relying on containment to stop the spread of covid 19, but the contagion is large and difficult to control. Arrival at the ports of Shanghai and Ningbo were blocked, with ships queuing up but unable to be loaded.
Road blockages and port congestion in China
2nd ancillary point: LevelTen gives an overview of the cheapest 25% of power purchase agreements in Europe. They differ by region
Evolution of power purchase agreements in Q1 2022
3rd point point (subsidiary) :
Bouygues wants to accelerate the construction of PV plants
Other interesting points :
Panels in Europe can have a VAT rate between 0 and 5%.
AS Published on Wednesday 20 April 2022 - n° 403 - Categories:News of the Month, fundamentals, Europe
Planning for the future to ensure the energy transition
Lithium, cobalt, nickel... the European Union must organise quickly
AS Published on Wednesday 20 April 2022 - n° 402 - Categories:PV Watch
A look at the new panel price hike in the offing
The photovoltaic world has been held in suspense by the silicon shortage. Just when it thinks it can get back to normal (an abundance of material), another shortage is brewing from the pandemic in China, which will hit global demand hard in a few months' time, while the offshore shipments arrive. Seeing the blindness of buyers who prefer to deal with Russia rather than the future, and having understood how to do it, the Chinese are preparing other real or simulated shortages. It doesn't matter! The important thing is to earn more with the same products.