L R AS Published on Friday 27 April 2018 - n° 231 - Categories:equipment manufacturing, industry
Sharp decline in investment orders in Q4 2017
The fourth quarter benefited from previous orders, increasing sales by
117% in the third quarter, but demand calmed down at the end of the year, according to the German machine manufacturers' union VDMA. This is especially the case for cell production equipment. This is leading to a drop in prices. The new orders come from machines for the production of PERC and black silicon and also for thin films.
Exports reached a record level of 93% in the 4th quarter. Sales are mainly made in Asia 62 % in China, Taiwan 1 %, India 1 %, the rest of Asia 8 %. America remains the second zone with 18 %, Germany 7 %, the rest of Europe 5 %.
Thin films accounted for 53% of sales in the fourth quarter and cell production for 44%. The remaining 3% were for silicon, ingots, wafers, panels, etc.
More worryingly, orders received fell by 41% between the third and fourth quarters, but they will increase by a further 9% in the fourth quarter of 2016. Currently, the order books are full. VDMA is of the opinion that the development targets for the PV industry in China point to a continuation of large orders in the future.
Photon of 26 April
Editor's note The proportion of sales in the 4th quarter (53% with thin-film equipment and 44% with cells) does not mention the existence of major investments in silicon production in China. This probably means that the manufacture of equipment is developing in China and absorbing orders from silicon producers.
The proportion of sales of equipment for thin film production (53% of the total) is intriguing, as there may be a concentration in one quarter of total orders. It may be that the Germans are still sought after in this very specialised domain and much less in other domains of the production chain (panels or wafers), which would show a worrying loss of competitiveness. It is curious that the cutting of ingots with diamond wire, which is becoming widespread in the sector, is not present in this panorama. Even the production of panels is ridiculously low... What does this mean? Is it an indication of significant market losses? Why are whole sections of the sector no longer supplied by German equipment manufacturers?
If the industrial investments destined for Taiwan represent 1% of German sales, this means that the industrial tools are ageing and that the already eroded competitiveness will disappear very quickly...
We would have liked a summary of the year because the 4th quarter could have been biased by specific sales such as thin layers... It would have been good if an order of magnitude of the profession's turnover had been provided. It's one thing to export 93% of 10 M€, or 93% of 100 M€!
