l'Actualité du Solaire

- by a slight recovery in the domestic installations segment (< 9 kW), but remains at a low level (19 MW),

- by an "explosion" in the medium-roof segment (9 to 100 kW), reaching an unprecedented 76 MW, probably due to the requirement to connect projects before the extinction of the purchase obligation, in its version prior to the decree of May 2016,

- by a further decline in the large roof segment (100 to 250 kW), reaching a level of 8 MW,

- by a further decline in the very large roof segment (250 kW to 1 MW), falling to 1 MW,

- by very strong growth in the large facilities segment (1 MW and +), reaching 252 MW this quarter, the cyclical effect of the connection of the wave of CRE3 projects two years after their award and the requirement to connect projects with demand under a purchase obligation.

Nearly 100 GW of new photovoltaic installations will be connected worldwide in 2017 (76 GW in 2016, an increase of 32%), after +50% in 2016 over 2015 to 76 GW.

Photovoltaic electricity is competitive in many countries. Its cost price has become lower than other traditional or renewable sources of electricity production. Solar energy will be the world's leading installed electricity source in 2016 (in terms ofnew installed capacity).

A large number of graphs illustrate the development of solar energy in France and around the world, which can be found at

http://www.observatoire-energie-photovoltaique.com/images/pdf/fts_indicateurs_2017t4.pdf

The photovoltaic solar energy observatory

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* Enerplan reacts to CRE's proposal concerning the self-consumption tariff

Enerplan's conclusion is that the CRE either envisages a 15% increase in TURPE on 1^August 2018, which would increase the electricity bill by 8% for all French citizens, or it creates a breach of equality before the public service.

Hence Enerplan's response:

1°) An important principle is missing, the taking into account of the gains linked to self-consumption vis-à-vis the electricity networks.

2°) It is necessary to maintain the extraction components paid for by individual self-consumers.

3°) The development of a TURPE6 requires taking into account the contributions and impacts of self-consumption to the network, but the importance of self-consumption is currently too low to be clearly apparent. The other aspect to be considered is the transition from "profiles" to "real load curves".

4°) The Linky meter is a simplification for Enedis, which in no way justifies a change in the metering components for a self-consumer compared with a "standard" consumer.

5°) This metering component specially created for collective self-consumers is not justified and would paradoxically lead to the final bill of the collective self-consumer being higher than that of a consumer with a similar consumption profile.

6°) Setting up a management component exclusively applicable to participants in a collective self-consumption operation

7°) A consumer must retain the free choice of his tariff. It is therefore necessary to provide that the suppliers, whether it is the TRV or a market tariff, can collect the TURPE that the collective self-consumer must pay for the share of self-consumed electricity.

http://enerplan.asso.fr/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1997&Itemid=203 and its two sub-parts :

file:///C:/Users/User/AppData/Local/Temp/180323_note_turpe_acc_enerplan-2.pdf

file:///C:/Users/User/AppData/Local/Temp/180323_q-r_cre_consultation_publique_turpe_acc-2.pdf

Enerplan of March 23rd.

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* EDF wants to become the storage market leader in Europe

The residential sector, especially self-consumption, is the main focus. The group aims to become the leader in the residential sector in France and Europe with its range of self-consumption services integrating batteries.

EDF is also targeting Africa with its vast potential for off-grid customers. It wants to occupy a leading position in this market. A plan to expand its activities in the African off-grid market was presented in January. It wants to extend its solar-plus-storage offer there.

EDF created a storage unit for the North American market in March last year. The subsidiary Distributed Electricity and Storage (DES) specialises in the development of distributed solar and storage projects up to 30 MW.

PV Magazine of 28 March

NDLR This information is bizarre: in France, the company is competing with alternative energy distributors. We don't see any policy implemented to keep its customers who are solicited by third parties ... Therefore, wanting to position itself on storage in the residential sector may be an excellent idea, but if EDF no longer had residential customers, what would be the use of the storage that would be set up? Is it a way to retain them? Is it credible when storage should be democratised?

The desire to install 30 GW of solar production by 2030 remains in the company's logic, both in France and abroad, that of an energy producer. Is distribution EDF's core business? If so, this would require a commercial confrontation with alternative distributors, and therefore a reduction in margins for several years.

Investing in 30 GW of solar energy between now and 2030, deploying 10 GW of storage for 8 billion euros, investing in Africa to conquer customers, is it to Is it commensurate with the company's financial capacity when EDF has to invest heavily in the safety and modernisation of its nuclear power plants? According to Greenpeace, the financial situation of the group at the end of 2107 is very bad.

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* Bruno Bensasson replaces Mr. Cahuzac as CEO of EDF Energies Nouvelles

Reuters of 30 March

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* Laurent Prieur appointed President of Certisolis

l'Echo du Solaire of 27 March

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* . * Study on the average market sales price of solar and wind kWh

GreenUniverses of 26 March

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* . * Voltalia wants to double its installations by 2020

Energy sales, which account for 71% of sales, increased by 43% year-on-year, thanks to the commissioning of two wind power plants in Brazil. Services include development and construction (19% of sales) and operations and maintenance (10% of sales).

As a result of major investments in new power plants, depreciation, amortisation and provisions doubled between 2016 and 2017, to €27 million. Financial expenses represented 20.3% of sales. Consolidated net profit was €3.5m (compared with €0.6m), but after minority interests, net profit attributable to equity holders of the parent was only €0.6m, compared with €1.6m, thanks to a good second half of the year.

The 2020 objectives are reaffirmed: Voltalia should reach a consolidated installed capacity of 1,000 MW (compared to 508 MW at the end of 2017), and a managed capacity (including third parties) of 3 GW compared to 1.2 GW at the end of 2017. The gross operating surplus would be in the range of €140 million to 180 MW, compared with €72 million in 2017. (Editor's note: this does not mean that net profit will double as a result of the increase in depreciation and amortisation)..

In 2020, solar energy should account for 36% of turnover (compared with 5% in 2017); wind energy 58% (compared with 92% in 2017), with a shift in the balance in favour of Europe 23% of turnover, Africa, Middle East and Asia 31%, with Latin America returning to 46% (compared with 86%).

Voltalia of 28 March.

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* . * Cape Verde Energy acquires 18 MW in France

GreenUnivers of 28 March

Management reaffirms its objective to reach 1 GWp in operation and under construction by 2022, i.e. 10 times current production capacity. The strategy followed is the installation of power plants close to consumers in order to achieve direct sales.

Tecsol of 29th March.

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* . * Public debate on Multiannual Energy Programming

Manufacturers of crystalline silicon cells experienced more stability in 2017 than in the previous year. Price reductions were marginal and demand was stronger than expected, particularly in the third quarter when monosilicon prices rose. The two main reasons for this price stability were higher raw material costs and strong demand at a time when there was limited availability of monocrystalline wafers.

As China accounts for half of the world's demand, two deadlines are important: the purchase price, which will be modified on June 30, will require that the installations have been completed before then. The other deadline is December 31 when the installations related to the "Best" program should have been completed. Both of these deadlines will have had an impact on the markets. In particular, the "Best" programme (4.5 GW) requires the use of panels with a minimum conversion rate. This explains why installers who had turned 70% to monosilicon products, and specifically to PERC monosilicon, will still be looking for this type of panel.

One of the biggest announcements in China in November 2017 was Tongwei's announcement of a $1.8 billion investment in two new cell production units to be installed in China. This will make it the largest cell producer in the world. So far, the impact has been small because the new capacity will be added step by step, according to market demand. Production will not start until the second half of 2018, which means that the impact will be negligible this year, but will be much greater from 2019 onwards.

For the remaining cell manufacturers outside mainland China, Tongwei's announcement could be bad news. Tongwei's huge expansion plan shows a very aggressive reduction in manufacturing costs. It will be the largest and cheapest cell supplier in the world.

This will have an effect on Taiwanese producers, who may lose market share faster than they imagine. Once the undisputed leaders in high-efficiency cells such as PERC, Taiwanese producers have found it difficult to keep up with the cost reductions and economies of scale in mainland China. In the past, Taiwanese cells were known for their good quality, which gave them a higher price. But in the period 2015-2017, Taiwanese producers have invested little in production line expansions or upgrades. As a result, last year the Taiwanese cell no longer had the best cost/performance ratio. Panel manufacturers were no longer willing to pay a higher price for Taiwanese cells. Now there is no efficiency or price difference between Taiwanese and Chinese cells.

Faced with increasing difficulties over the last three years, Taiwanese producers are increasingly focusing on their domestic market and want to expand into panel production rather than just cell production. This has resulted in the merger of three manufacturers who are moving towards the development of green energy in Taiwan.

The production of cells is one of the most difficult technological steps in photovoltaic manufacturing. The requirements are very high. It is difficult for new players to become competitive. Panel manufacturers are reluctant to buy cells from other regions.

India is currently lagging far behind manufacturers in East Asia. There are some capacity increases. Chinese manufacturers are showing the greatest interest in setting up an industrial site in this country, whereas for the moment they are exporting their products.

The United States have introduced their customs duties for products from the whole of Asia and Europe.

Consequently, there will be no major capacity expansions in 2018 in Asia. In 2017, cell production capacity in South-East Asia (excluding China and Taiwan) increased by 28% over 2016, reaching 30 GW. The region remains an important supplier of products for Europe and the United States.

The year 2017 was marked by uncertainty regarding US trade tariffs. The announcement in January 2018 of 30% tariffs on cell and panel imports from all countries, with a 2.5 GW exemption for cells, was less of a penalty than many feared. What is unknown is the reaction of manufacturers who want to export to the US. The 2.5 GW cell import duty exemption should provide an incentive to set up new panel assembly plants. This quota is too high for the current capacities of the manufacturers, who will therefore be able to increase their panel production over the next four years. This should encourage other companies to start producing panels. JinkoSolar is going to create a production unit in Florida. It will be limited to panels, importing cells without customs duties.

Technological trends: monosilicon products have continued to gain market share. They should represent 40% of the market in 2018, especially PERC monosilicon. The production capacity of PERC monosilicon cells increased from 15 GW at the end of 2016 to 33 GW at the end of 2017. The importance of this product will continue to increase in 2018 due to the "Best of the Best" programme and the growing demand for high efficiency cells and panels.

The N-type technology is beginning to make its mark, but it is not yet considered a mature technology.

In 2018, producers will continue to focus on increasing the capacity of high-efficiency products. This applies to both multi and monosilicon PERC technology. Some manufacturers will increase their capacity to produce bifacial panels. The vast majority of companies will continue their R&D efforts to develop N-type cells rather than increase commercial capacity.

PV Magazine of 30 March

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* . * Problem of strategy for the major energy groups

They face competition from the GAFA, who are interested in energy for their own needs (the computing centres are very greedy): they wanted to secure their supply despite the intermittency of renewable energies. They have used their artificial intelligence capabilities to determine the consumption of private individuals. This enables them to optimise the users' electrical equipment and thus to be present in home automation.

Another threat to the major energy companies is the change in consumption patterns. This is particularly true in Japan, where the population wants to protect itself against power cuts by means of micro-grids that can cover a city or a district. The consumer can install PV panels and then use the energy or resell it. This calls into question the role of the major energy companies as distributors. Their role may end tomorrow at the point of entry of the micro-grids.

Storage, which is emerging, is likely to reduce the role of distributors...

Energy companies are therefore faced with structuring choices. What production methods should be relied on? What intelligence to put behind? Because of their limited investment capacities, they must make decisions that are sufficiently open-ended so as not to limit their future. This means testing different options, deciding on some and generalising others.

https://www.usinenouvelle.com/article/avis-d-expert-la-transition-energetique-tueuse-des-grands-groupes-d-energie.N670719

L'Usine Nouvelle of March 31.

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* . * Declining RE and battery costs threaten coal and gas-fired power plants

Lower costs in wind, solar and batteries threaten coal and gas power plants in the global energy mix. The latter are threatened in their three main roles:

- Bulk energy supply (due to lower investment costs, efficiency improvements and auctions that drive down prices).

- The provision of distributable generation (which can adapt to rising or falling energy demand at any time of day thanks to batteries that will smooth production and shift supply).

- Flexibility: adapting to a shortage or excess of electricity on the grid for hours on end thanks to batteries that compete with peak gas-fired power plants and hydraulic pumping.

Existing coal- and gas-fired plants will continue to operate for many years with a combination of bulk generation and balancing, but the economic case for a new coal-fired plant is not clear. However, the economic case for a new coal or gas-fired power plant is becoming less and less relevant as batteries begin to encroach on the flexibility and peak production enjoyed by fossil fuel plants.

To assess the average cost of electricity for each energy, BNEF takes into account the equipment, construction and financing costs arising from operating, maintenance and average operating hours. In the first half of 2018, the global benchmark Onshore Wind Benchmark LCOE is $0.055 per kilowatt hour, down 18% from the first six months of last year, while the average cost for PV systems without tracking is also down 18%. The average cost (LCOE) of offshore wind electricity is $0.118 per kWh in the first half of 2018, down 5%. The cost of onshore wind electricity is particularly low in India, Brazil, Sweden and Australia. The cost of solar electricity is particularly low in Chile, India, Australia and Jordan.

For example, in India, the average cost of onshore wind turbines is only $0.039 per kWh, down 46% in one year, and down 41% for solar power. By comparison, coal costs $0.068 per kWh and combined cycle gas $0.093. In India, wind-plus-plant and solar-plus-plant systems have cost ranges of $0.034-$0.208 per kWh and $0.047-$0.308 per kWh, depending on project characteristics, but the centre of these ranges is rapidly declining.

The auctions forced the developers, equipment suppliers and financiers to assume all costs. This has resulted in record prices for solar and wind power. Thus in nine years (2009-2018), the average cost of solar has fallen by 77% and the cost of wind power by 38%. On the other hand, for traditional generators, cost reductions have been minimal and sometimes even increases. The price per kWh of a lithium battery fell from $1,000 in 2010 to $209 in 2017.

https://about.newenergyfinance.com/about/blog/tumbling-costs-wind-solar-batteries-squeezing-fossil-fuels/

Bloomberg NEF of 28 March

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* . * The photovoltaic industry must achieve total quality

In solar installation, operations and maintenance, the industry uses certain parameters from the 1930s, which existed in the automotive industry, to determine the outcome of an installation: inspection of solar assets upon entry and then upon activation of the system in residential systems. Each uses a different process. The author considers that there are significant opportunities to improve installations.

In interviews with residential installers, it became apparent that there are no industry standards for quality assurance and quality control. The profession would benefit from adopting process-based quality control rather than outcome-based quality control. More information could be provided to manufacturers and installers.

Information on data, including failure mode analysis, measurements of the installation process and contractor assessments of the installation and performance of solar systems, is very rarely available to the manufacturing company. This data can be used to better diagnose and prevent future electrical or mechanical failures.

Standardization of quality assurance and quality control can reduce costs and build confidence among stakeholders from design to inspection. Most importantly, a sound quality control program can reduce labour costs and operating and maintenance costs. These improvements would translate into higher overall consumer satisfaction and valuable assets such as greater consistency of systems in function and higher performance.

In both commercial and utility deployments, EPCs should collect statistical sampling of installation quality prior to the installation of thousands of panels. After 5% of the installed capacity, it should be verified that specifications are met, processes have been adjusted, and reported performance is achieved. This would be much closer to a manufacturing setting.

Manufacturers could use observational data to streamline repairs. This information could be considered in the design of future equipment. The training of maintenance technicians could also be improved with appropriate training materials.

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/solar-needs-a-total-quality-revolution#gs.ejaRdLc

GreenTech Media of 28 March.

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* . * Silicon is forgotten in the China-US negotiations

Digitimes of 31 March.

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THE PRODUCTS
* . Batteries are not the solution to storage, according to Vattenfall

The Swedish energy company Vattenfall started its interest in solar energy in 2016 when it installed its first 4.9 MW solar farm close to the similarly sized wind farm in Wales. Now the company is finding that the cost of electricity from photovoltaics has matched the cost of electricity from onshore wind farms and will soon become lower. This is an incentive for the company to invest in PV. Its solar power stations will be installed where wind power stations are already installed, to minimise the cost of connection.

Vattenfall has also invested in start-ups ? particularly those that aggregate large amounts of data using the Internet of Things and artificial intelligence. It has become their customer helping to develop their products.

The company has found that "batteries will not be the solution, as they can only make a small contribution". Given the current large capacities of energy systems, storage will only be able to compensate for short-term fluctuations. Therefore, gas storage technologies will be used to stabilise electricity production in the context of renewable energies. At the same time, the policy level needs improvement. "Governments have not yet realised the need to combine renewable energy and storage.

PV Magazine of 26 March.

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* Will lithium ion batteries be dethroned by other technologies?

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/03/28/video-interview-will-lithium-ions-battery-dominance-soon-end/

PV Magazine of 28 March.

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* Inverters and storage systems are vulnerable to piracy

By changing the system parameters, a hacker could potentially cause a battery to corrode, detonating it like a bomb. Rapidly charging a depleted lithium-ion battery causes chemical reactions that can become explosive.

Battery software and hardware configurations vary from manufacturer to manufacturer. It is unlikely that all systems are as easy to hack and control. TÜV Rheinland believes that some systems have a higher degree of protection, but it cannot say at this early stage of the investigation.

PV Magazine of 29 March

Editor's note Is this a real threat or a simulated threat for TÜV Rheinland to provide its services? What is certain is that malicious access is always possible and that the consequences can be catastrophic?.

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* Winter storage: a new process

Picea's thermal storage tank can supply up to 45 kilowatt hours, with seasonal storage capacity ranging from 350 kilowatt hours to 1,000 kWh, presumably supplied by hydrogen.

The combination of the two technologies allows a family to store solar energy during the summer by storing enough hydrogen to cover energy consumption during the winter.

The system, which will begin delivery in the fourth quarter of 2018, is expected to deliver between 3 and 6 megawatt hours of energy per year. This should be enough to meet the needs of a German household of four people who consume around 4 MWh annually.

The first 50 systems will be sold for €54,000 plus VAT, plus installation costs. This compares to €1,030, the annual energy consumption of a German family of three. The company's challenge will be to rapidly reduce its costs in a country that is expected to install (according to GreenTech Media) 161 MWh in 2018.

Heating and cooling equipment manufacturer Viessmann, for example, has a product called Vitovalor 300-P that uses a fuel cell to provide power and heat from hydrogen, which costs €25,000.

GreenTech Media of 26 March

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* New photovoltaic panel at ARMOR

Armor achieved a turnover of 256 M€ and invested 13 M€ in research and development (5% of its turnover).

Tecsol of 27 March.

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THE COMPANIES
* . SMA in 2017: quite mediocre

For the first quarter of 2018, SMA is expected to report EBITDA of €180m (+4%) and €18m (+13%). For the full year, sales are expected to be between €900 million and €1,000 million (up 1 to 12%), with EBITDA of €90 million to €110 million (€97 million in 2017).

Photon of March 29th

Editor's note These accounts call for several remarks: the company has lost market share again in 2017, as it cannot be believed that the global volume of installations has only increased by 4%, while the global growth of panel installations is up to 50%.

The decline in average selling price of 10% (4% increase in volume and 6% decline in sales) seems small given the competition. Other activities, other than the simple sale of inverters, had to be developed to mitigate this apparent small drop in prices.

Gross margin declines by a further 3% between 2016 and 2017.

Operating profit declined by 32%, despite a €15m gain from "other operating income". Otherwise it would have been down by more than half!

Similarly, the difference between operating profit and net profit was due to a €5.7m reduction in financial expenses and a €16m reduction in income tax. As a result, net profit does not represent the company's actual operating performance in 2017..

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* BYD in 2017, the solar division is in loss

The solar division is still losing money due to 'increased competition in the photovoltaic market'.

PV Magazine of 29 March.

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* Ingeteam deliveries in 2017

Photon of March 28.

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* JinkoSolar wants to increase its production capacity in 2018.

Wafers: In-house production capacity increased from 5 GW in 2016 to 8 GW in 2017. In the^first quarter of 2018, 1 GW was added; 0.5 GW will be added during the year, bringing capacity to 9.5 GW.

Cells: Capacity increased by 1 GW in 2017 to 5 GW. The company expects to reach 6 GW by the end of 2018.

Panels: module assembly capacity increased from 6.5 GW in 2016 to 8 GW in 2017, an increase of 1.5 GW in one year. Internal panel assembly capacity will increase by 1.5 GW in 2018. This includes an increase of 0.5 GW in the first quarter of 2018 and another 1 GW by year end. As a result, the company's total panel production capacity is expected to approach 10 GW in 2018.

Capital investment was $277 million in 2016 and $480 million in 2017. Investment may be less than the latter amount in 2018.

The company delivered 9.8 GW in 2017 (+47% over 2016) and estimates that it will deliver between 11.5 GW and 12 GW in 2018. Most of the increase in sales in 2018 will be found in emerging countries.

PV Tech of March 22nd

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* New services at Trina Solar

Trina Solar indicates that it wants to move to a second stage, that of smart power generation, low carbon and transforming our energy behaviour. Trina is working with a number of partners on new business, including IBM, Accenture, Huawei and Siemens ...

PV Tech of March 28th

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* GCL Poly would switch to monosilicon

GCL Poly has switched to diamond cutting to produce polycrystalline inserts. Its annual capacity increased from 17 GWp in 2016 to 24 GWp at the end of 2017 (+40%) and is expected to reach 30 GWp at the end of 2018 (+25% over 2017). The proportion of demand between polycrystalline and monocrystalline wafers, which is 90-10 outside China, is 70-30 in China, where manufacturers prefer monosilicon panels.

GCL Poly, which has an annual production capacity of 75,000 tonnes of silicon, is setting up a 60,000 tonne plant in north-west China. The company will start using the fluidised bed reactor to produce silicon in mid-2018, which will reduce production costs.

The company has set up an annual production capacity of 5,000 tonnes of high-purity silicon for the manufacture of semiconductor ingots and wafers.

Digitimes of 29 March.

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* . * Solarworld Industries fails to restart

Photon of March 28th

Editor's note The first failure destroyed the structure and organisation of the company. The takeover of the remaining assets could only function with a buoyant and profitable market, while the organisation was being put back in place. As this fundamental condition has not been met, it is logical that Solarworld Industries should cease its activities..

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* . * Disappearance of ViZn

PV Magazine of 26 March.

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MISCELLANEOUS
* . 200 billion dollars to build 200 GW by 2030 in Saudi Arabia

This project is one hundred times larger than the largest project currently under construction. It is equivalent to three times the world's 2017 facilities and would triple Saudi Arabia's current power generation capacity. As a result, some analysts are skeptical about its completion. They are asking to see the first 7.2 GW.

Some commentators believe that this project falls within the framework of the installation in the country of a capacity for the manufacture of panels, inverters and accessories: the production would be used locally. This explains the amount of the investment, 1 dollar per watt. This is higher than the price of imported panels.

For the moment, Saudi Arabia only has 35 MW at the end of 2017. The country plans to add 9 GW by 2022. The realisation of this project would result in a surplus of electricity production that could be exported to neighbouring countries. Oil production would then be reserved for large consumer countries such as China or India. This would require the installation of electricity transmission infrastructure, even if the frequency of the Saudi Arabian grid is different from that of its neighbours (60 hertz instead of 50 Hz).

PV Magazine of 28 March.

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* Efficiency of 25.09% on a six-inch cell

Sharp focuses on projects in South East Asia

PV Magazine of 27 March

Le Fil de l'Actu n°227 du 3 avril 2018