l'Actualité du Solaire

After China's bank holidays, which suspended trading and commentary on the sector, business is picking up again

Silicon :

Customers are placing large orders for October or even early November. Prices are stabilising

at RMB 83-91/kg; granular silicon at RMB 76-85/kg.

Silicon stocks are at a moderate level. In the latter part of the fourth quarter, prices will follow a clearer downward trend, with stocks expected to swell as new production capacity comes on stream. Demand, meanwhile, will fall as ingot and wafer manufacturers reduce their volumes.

This encourages buyers to postpone their purchases until prices fall.

Wafers :

Accumulating stocks and falling prices are prompting the industry to reduce production. The capacity utilisation rate has fallen to 82-84%.

Chip prices continue to fall this week, at RMB 2.78-2.8/piece and RMB 3.7/piece respectively for M10 and G12 type P chips. For N wafers, prices are between RMB 2.88 and RMB 2.9 per piece for M10 wafers. Due to the high demand for half wafers, the supply of N-type G12 wafers appears to be limited. For full N-type G12 wafers, prices are stabilising at 4.2 RMB/piece because buyers are not Chinese, and there are few TOPCon cell manufacturers in China.

In the short term, wafer prices will continue to fall slowly, but with little room for further price cuts as they approach break-even. If manufacturers reduce production as planned, prices could stabilise. A slight rebound from excessive production cuts is likely.

Cells :

The increase in cell stocks and the fall in panel prices are leading to a fall in cell prices. Since manufacturers have lowered their prices in vain, they stop providing quotations.

Cell prices this week fell by between 4% and 7% on last week's levels, to 0.6 RMB/W and 0.65 RMB/W for M10 and G12 P-type cells respectively. The main panel manufacturers have renewed their prices for M10 and G12 P-type cells, setting them at 0.58-0.59 RMB/W and 0.6-0.61 RMB/W respectively. The new price range will become the standard.

The price of M10 TOPCon (N-type) cells falls by 4-5% to 0.64-0.65 RMB/W. N-type cells are 0.05 RMB/W more expensive than P-type cells. G12 HJT cells, mainly for internal use and to a lesser extent for external sales, have seen their prices stabilise at 0.8 RMB/W.

With a better quality/price ratio and a mismatch between supply and demand, G12 cells are 10% more profitable than M10 cells.

The problem for producers is reducing stocks. Should they cut prices to sell more goods, or reduce production rates?

Panels:

Weaker-than-expected demand and oversupply are driving prices down. Buyers are anticipating this and delaying their purchases. The average price of sheet glass panels fell to 1.15-1.18 RMB/W this week. Tier 1 panel manufacturers continue to take new orders at lower prices (at 1.14-1.15 RMB/W) this week. Some Tier 2 and Tier 3 manufacturers are maintaining prices between 1.18 and 1.2 RMB/W for cost reasons. Nevertheless, the low price range is expected to approach 1 RMB/W in the fourth quarter.

Exporters are offering spot prices of €0.13 to €0.15/W; panels with black backsheet have a premium of €0.01-0.02/W.

For TOPCon N-type panels, prices are between RMB1.2 and RMB1.32/W, with a premium of $0.008 to $0.01/W compared with PERC prices on non-Chinese markets.

For HJT panels, prices have changed little, ranging from RMB1.38 to RMB1.48/W in China and from RMB1.35 to RMB1.38/W for low-efficiency panels. On markets outside China, prices have stabilised at between $0.18 and $0.19/W.

https://www.infolink-group.com/energy-article/pv-spot-price-20231011

InfoLink of 11 October 2023