L R AS Published on Sunday 1 October 2023 - n° 459 - Categories:the prices
The PV sector: a sharp fall in wafer prices, but silicon is holding its own
Silicon:
The bank holidays is approaching (October1 ). Silicon manufacturers are still taking new orders. Price quotations from the main manufacturers are up slightly, while those from the main suppliers are down.
Level 2 and 3 manufacturers remained at previous levels, or even fell slightly. Average monograde silicon prices rose slightly to RMB87/kg, up 2.4% week-on-week. Manufacturers are postponing deliveries because supply is still insufficient. Buyers, for their part, fear a fall in prices in the fourth quarter.
Chips :
After the drop in cell prices, wafer prices have plummeted, posing a new challenge to silicon prices. Given silicon production capacity and the potential for further increases, the market is expecting silicon prices to fall by the end of October.
At the end of September, Zhonghuan and LONGi updated their price offers to 3.1 RMB/piece for M10 wafers and 4.08 RMB/piece for G12 wafers. For P-type wafers, prices are between 3.08 and 3.1 RMB/piece for M10s, and between 4.08 and 4.1 RMB for G12s. Some manufacturers estimate low prices for M10 wafers at 3.04 RMB/piece or less.
For N wafers, prices range from 3.18-3.2 RMB/piece for M10 wafers. The price range for G12 is narrower, at 4.2 RMB/piece.
At the end of the month, wafer prices are falling steadily as the volume of production increases and stocks swell. It is not clear what will happen after the National Holiday. Everything will depend on production plans after the holiday. Manufacturers could reduce production.
Cells :
With TOPCon cell capacities coming online, low-efficiency and test cells are flooding the market. As stock levels rise, prices continue to fall.
Transaction prices are collapsing this week. Prices for P-type M10 cells have fallen by 8-9% from last week's level to RMB0.63-0.65/W. The low price range continues to fall, widening the overall price range. The market is aware of prices below 0.73 RMB/W this Wednesday. Prices for P-type G12 cells are at 0.7 RMB, with smaller falls than for M10 cells thanks to relatively stable supply.
Prices for M10 N cells, TOPCon are down by 4-5% to 0.68-0.70 RMB/W. The price of N cells is 0.05 to 0.07 RMB/W higher than that of P cells. G12 HJT cells, mainly for internal use and less for external sales, are seeing their prices stabilise.
Panels :
The continued decline in wafer and cell prices is partially easing cost pressures for panel manufacturers. This is allowing panel prices to fall further as a result of the uncertain outlook for end-users in the fourth quarter.
Panel prices are temporarily stabilising this week. Manufacturers are continuing to sell their products at low prices, which is affecting forward prices. Despite the national holiday, the main panel manufacturers are not stopping their monthly production above 50 GW. As a result, prices are expected to fall due to oversupply and sluggish demand.
Buyers are waiting for prices to fall before placing orders. Average prices for glass-foil panels are between 1.2 and 1.22 RMB/W this week, while those for Tier 2 and Tier 3 manufacturers are between 1.2 and 1.21 RMB/W. Tier 1 manufacturers are taking new orders at between RMB 1.18 and 1.2/W.
On the non-Chinese market, prices are stabilising this week but will also see changes over the next period. Chinese exporters are delivering between $0.14 and $0.155/W (FOB). In Europe, spot prices stand at €0.14-0.15/W, with black-backed panels commanding a premium of €0.01-0.02/W.
https://www.infolink-group.com/energy-article/pv-spot-price-20230927
InfoLink of 27 September 2023
