L R AS Published on Saturday 23 September 2023 - n° 458 - Categories:panels
P-type solar products could be phased out by 2026
P-type solar products could be phased out by 2026 as N-type technology develops "rapidly" due to higher conversion efficiency.
However, Trendforce believes that the oversupply of P-type cells and panels could widen the price gap between N-type and P-type products in the coming months. This would be particularly the case if there were a shortage of high-quality silicon materials suitable for N-type. There would then be a switch to P-type.
"Total silicon production capacity will reach 2.1 million tonnes" by the end of 2023. "Actual production of silicon-based materials is expected to be 1.5 million tonnes, enough to manufacture more than 600 GW of solar panels (assuming a silicon consumption rate of 0.245 kg/MW). This compares with annual installation demand of around 370-390 GW, indicating a clear oversupply of silicon.
Wafer production capacity is expected to reach around 922 GW by the end of the year, according to TrendForce. Wafer manufacturers are responding to the rush for N-type cells by "rapidly" converting their equipment and increasing production. This could again have an impact on P-type cells.
"If the deployment of N-type cells does not meet expectations, there remains a risk of oversupply of N-type wafers."
With N-cell capacity deployment experiencing delays, PERC will most likely remain the winning technology for 2023, the study says.
TrendForce has observed some delays in the actual deployment of N-cell capacity. Given the existing price differential between N- and P-type wafers, PERC technology is likely to retain its market leadership this year, even though the penetration rate of TOPCon cells will accelerate.
PV Magazine, 21 September 2023
Editor's note We are in the critical period when the P type has not yet been abandoned and the N type has not yet fully established itself. Hence the impression of hesitation on the part of the author, who refers to possible reversals in favour of type P, even though the article (The profitability and prospects of type N products) in the same media mentioned a reduction in the production cost of type N and therefore a balance currently being achieved between the two technologies, with a better conversion rate for TOPCon.
There will be a rapid move away from type P
