L R AS Published on Monday 22 May 2023 - n° 446 - Categories:various sectors, Europe

Fluctuations on the European energy market in May

Every week, Nicolas Leclerc, co-founder of energy consultancy OMNEGY, offers his analysis of fluctuations in the energy market. This week,

Energy prices remain stable overall, with the exception of the winter period:

Gas Gas: - 3.4% for prices in 2024 and - 2.5% for prices in June 2023. Gas prices are benefiting from an accommodating situation in terms of the sector's fundamentals, and are continuing to fall. Record imports of LNG, the ongoing refilling of stocks in Europe (61%), substantial production from renewable sources and global consumption that remains low are all factors in this decline. However, the price for winter 23/24 is not falling, and remains higher than either short-term or long-term prices, due to the greater risk to market balance at this time.

Electricity Electricity: +3.6% on prices for 2024 and +0.2% on prices for May 2023. Electricity prices have shown little volatility over the past week. In the short term, low-cost renewable generation on the one hand and persistently low electricity consumption on the other are keeping prices below €100/MWh. For 2024, prices have risen again, due to the continuing uncertainty about French nuclear availability and production levels in winter 23/24. Despite EDF's announcements that it will maintain its production targets at 300-330 TWh, the Q1 24 and Q1 23 price for next winter has continued to rise.

CO2 price: - 2.7% on the price of allowances for December 2023. The price ofCO2 fell slightly on the back of rather pessimistic data from the economic and financial sectors in the eurozone, reflecting a reduction in business activity.

Oil : The price of a barrel of oil fell by almost 10% in a week, mainly due to worrying economic data from China, against a rather gloomy global economic backdrop.conomic backdrop, with inflation still high, rate hikes set to continue and economic activity indicators deteriorating.


Tecsol of 16 May 2023

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