L R AS Published on Saturday 19 November 2022 - n° 425 - Categories:the prices
Markets are cautious ahead of the price decline
Buyers place orders to meet an existing demand. If not, they wait for a possible price decrease.
The price of silicon has not changed this week, remaining at 303 RMB/kg. The prices offered by the various manufacturers are becoming increasingly varied. Tier 2 companies are willing to set lower prices. The role that buyers play in the market is gradually changing. Negotiations between upstream sectors are intensifying.
Inelastic demand from the ingot segment for silicon is more evident this month, with usage rates steadily rising. A tipping point in the upstream supply/demand relationship will occur by the end of the year. Silicon will not see significant price declines in the short term, but declines are increasingly likely.
Prices from the major manufacturers remain unchanged. For 182 mm wafers produced by Tier 2 manufacturers, prices are back to RMB 7.35/W in the spot market. Taking into account the variation in prices between wafers of different thicknesses, prices have fallen to RMB 7.25/W for some 182 mm wafers with a thickness of 150 µm. The price range continues to fall for single-Si wafers.
Overall, supply increased in the market in November. The cell sector has managed to keep utilisation rates at their maximum and will not be able to take more wafers. As a result, pressure is building on mono-Si wafers in all formats, which are reaching too high a level in stock.
Prices for decommissioned wafers are falling faster than prices for wafers in excellent condition, which may continue to see their sales stagnate. This is because the relationship between supply and demand is changing. Wafer manufacturers are setting higher standards for efficiency and product quality.
Cell prices are stabilising. New wafer prices are expected to be published next week. Prices stand at RMB 1.31/W, RMB 1.35-1.36/W and RMB 1.34-1.35/W for M6, M10 and G12 cells. Dollar prices are rising due to exchange rate fluctuations. This puts pressure on panel manufacturers in overseas markets.
Trading prices for M10 cells are holding steady with no sign of decline. Due to the shortage of supply of large-format high-efficiency cells, cell prices are decoupling from the upstream price trend and becoming closely linked to demand from the panel sector.
Cell prices have reached a tipping point. However, it is relatively difficult to determine the exact timing of this downward trend. It will occur if there is a decrease in demand if panel manufacturers have reached their annual target. Prices could also stabilise if panel manufacturers decide to build up stocks for the Lunar New Year earlier than in previous years.
For industrial scale projects, most orders are delivered at RMB 1.9-1.95/W. The price gap between orders for distributed and large-scale projects is narrowing. Prices are mixed. The overall price range will continue to widen in Q4. Glass sheet panels have price differences of 0.01-0.03 RMB/W compared to ground sheet panels
At the moment, installation schedules are vague. Developers are launching projects with no deadline for installation. Recent rumours suggest that panel prices should drop early next year.
At the moment, prices stand at $0.24-0.28/W. Panel prices (FOB) fall slightly to $0.24-0.27/W in Europe.
Next year, overseas markets will be more chaotic than the Chinese market. This is largely attributed to the emergence of new players who are intensifying competition in the panel sector. Some panel manufacturers offered prices as low as $0.23/W in the first half of the year and as low as $0.22/W in the second half. This situation will continue into next year.
PV InfoLink of 16 November 2022