L R AS Published on Tuesday 12 April 2022 - n° 401 - Categories:Europe

Europe's energy crisis and demand for renewable energy

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine will speed up the development of renewable energies in Europe. On 9 March, the EU declared that accelerated development would make it possible to achieve the target of 1,000 GW of solar installations by 2030.

For SolarPower Europe, the EU will reach 672 GW of photovoltaic installations by 2030, equivalent to 56 GW in each of the coming years. The target of 1 TW means that new annual installations will have to reach 93 GW, an increase of 65%.

Dependence on traditional energy sources has prompted Europe to step up demand for renewable energies, which will only further expand the market for new energies.

  1. Exacerbation of the energy crisis in Europe

In January 2022, according to the IEA, Russia produced around 11.3 million barrels of oil a day, putting it just behind the United States and Saudi Arabia. The country exported around 7.8 million barrels of oil per day in December 2021, accounting for around 25% of global oil and natural gas exports. Russia's main energy export destination is Europe, where oil and natural gas exports account for 50% and 78% respectively of the country's total exports. Dependence on Russia varies from one European country to another: Bulgaria is almost 100% dependent, while Poland imports around 80% of its natural gas from Russia. The ratio is less than 10% for Belgium, France and the Netherlands. Europe imported around 4.5 million barrels of oil per day in November 2021, representing 34% of the continent's total imports.

Russia set a record for natural gas production in 2021, with 763 billion m³, representing year-on-year growth of 10%, second only to the United States. Oil and natural gas are the two dominant sources of energy in Europe, with a combined ratio of 59% of energy consumption, including 33.8% for oil and 25.2% for natural gas. Coal is the third most important energy source, accounting for 12.2%. Renewable energies account for 11.5%,

Structure of energy consumption in Europe in 2020 :

Several European countries have closed their coal-fired power stations and some of their nuclear power stations, while at the same time stepping up the installation of renewable energies. The path of energy transformation is exacerbating Europe's energy crisis, and has finally come to the fore in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war.

  1. Europe is experiencing strong demand for renewable energy

The price of electricity since last year has doubled in the second half of 2021. The average price of electricity in the main European countries exceeded €300/MWh in February 2022, compared with €50/MWh in February 2019.

The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war has also accelerated the timetable for the development of renewable energies in Europe. On 8 March, the European Commission announced that it wanted to free itself from dependence on energy imports from Russia by 2030, starting with natural gas. The RePower EU programme proposes accelerated development to achieve the target of 1,000 GW of solar installations by 2030.

At the same time, Germany has proposed new legislation to bring forward the target of producing 100% of electricity from renewable sources to 2035, 15 years earlier than the previous target. The EU plans to install 15 TWh of rooftop solar panels this year.

However, the increase in electricity prices is linked to the rise in the price of oil and gas, and also to lower-than-expected electricity production from renewable energies.nergy production in 2021 (production between October and February each year is less than half that in other months, due to the seasonal factor. This was compounded by poor weather conditions for hydroelectricity and wind power).

Photovoltaic installations in Europe between 2016 and 2019

Demand for photovoltaic installations is expected to reach 37.3 GW in 2022 (up 44% on 2021 - i.e. 12.6 GW more), following an increase of 34% in 2021 on 2020.

Demand for photovoltaic installations in various European countries in 2022 (unit: MW)

Imports of panels rose sharply in 2021, against a backdrop of strong demand for green electricity in Europe. As shown by panel imports and exports throughout 2021, European countries such as the Netherlands have increased their panel imports compared with the previous year. Europe has accumulated 100.6 GW of panels since inception, with the Netherlands exporting the most panels. Europe imported around 25 GW of panels in 2021, an increase of 93%.

The average price of panels exported by China rose by 10.6% in 2021 compared with 2020. China achieved a 45% year-on-year increase in panel exports in December 2021.

Graph Distribution of China's panel exports for 2020 (inner circle) and 2021 (outer circle) :

https://www.energytrend.com/research/20220316-27051.html

EnergyTrend of 16 March 2022

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