L R AS Published on Monday 31 January 2022 - n° 391 - Categories:battery materials

Lack of raw materials could slow down the energy transition

According to the German consultancy DIW Berlin, high commodity prices "could thwart the energy transition", as large quantities of copper are needed.

for the construction of photovoltaic and wind power plants. A great deal of cobalt, lithium and nickel is also needed for batteries (for electric vehicles). To avoid this rise in prices and the penalisation of installations, a coordinated international policy should be introduced, unless technological advances are made by developing alternative materials. In the current context, bottlenecks seem difficult to avoid.

According to IEA estimates, annual copper consumption is set to double over the next 20 years, nickel consumption to more than triple and cobalt consumption to increase sixfold. In the case of lithium, demand in 2040 is expected to be "more than 20 times higher than today".

Supply, on the other hand, is likely to be slow to respond to price incentives. If we consider how copper, nickel and cobalt are mined, it could take up to two decades for new deposits to come on stream. In the case of lithium, capacities could be increased a little more quickly, depending on the type of operation, but here again, some time would be needed. According to the study, "copper prices could rise by almost 70% in 2030 compared with 2020, while lithium prices could increase by almost 180%.

"The energy transition could lead to a quadrupling in the value of the four metals (cobalt, lithium, nickel and copper) between 2021 and 2040, making it more expensive to develop renewable energies.

https://www.diw.de/de/diw_01.c.834112.de/hohe_preise_fuer_kupfer__lithium__nickel_und_kobalt_koennten_energiewende_ausbremsen.htmlhttps://

Photon of 27 January 2022

Editor's note At last, a reasonable study. Of course, we can argue about amounts and dates, but if anything is true, it's that the world is rushing to buy the same products at the same time because they are used to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and because these materials are not very common in nature. It is certain that they will become more expensive and slow down the spread of batteries.

Even aluminium, a relatively abundant product (see ???), will have to be rationed or recycled to prevent primary smelting from increasingCO2 emissions and raising the planet's temperature!

Nobody's mentioning it because it's a bit early, but there could well be open conflicts between countries to obtain cobalt, nickel, manganese and even lithium, not to mention rare earths under the domination of China.

So on the one hand, there are the "climate pushers" who claim that we can never do enough. On the other, there are the naysayers who look at reality. Fortunately, reality will prevail no matter what!

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