L R AS Published on Sunday 12 December 2021 - n° 386 - Categories:the American PV
Three divergent projections for US solar installations
At the same time, three projections of solar installations in the US are published. They are divergent.
The International Energy Agency (IEA)
said that the US could install 178 GW of renewable capacity from 2022 to the end of 2026. 39 GW of solar and wind could be installed in 2021 alone, but in subsequent years it would stabilise at around 26 GW. In total, 270 GW of solar capacity could be installed by the end of 2026, almost three times the 100 GW currently deployed in January this year.
S&P Global Market Intelligence reported that the US could install 71 GW of wind and solar power in 2022 alone, with 44 GW of solar and 27 GW of wind. By 2023, S&P expects solar to grow by nearly 33%, while wind deployments will remain flat or decline slightly.
Rystad Energy, meanwhile, said it expects 50% of the 90 GW of solar projects worldwide to be potentially cancelled or postponed. This would be the result of rising supply chain prices and shipping costs: polysilicon prices have risen by more than 300% and container shipping costs have increased by more than 500%. These increases added $0.06 to $0.08/kWh to the cost of solar panels. Approximately 75% of the 2022 projected capacity in the US is expected to come from utility-scale projects.
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/12/09/three-vastly-divergent-us-solar-deployment-projections/
PV Magazine, December 9, 2021
Editor's note This discrepancy should not be surprising: one can only project the past into the future and hope that it will be on the same trend. However, over a five-year period, many new factors may intervene which would modify the previous direction. Two aspects we are considering are how quickly the creation of a solar industry will be established in the US and how the Sino-American war will develop.
