L R AS Published on Monday 6 December 2021 - n° 385 - Categories:France, other France
Ademe publishes its study "Transition(s) 2050. Choisir maintenant. Acting for the climate".
To achieve carbon neutrality in 2050, Ademe is publishing four coherent and contrasting paths by studying consumption (land use planning, building, mobility and food), the production system
(land use, building, mobility and food), energy (gas, cold and heat, biomass, liquid fuels and hydrogen); resources (biomass and waste) and carbon sinks.
Ademe has brought together technical, economic and environmental elements to raise awareness of the implications of the societal and technical choices that will be made. In all the scenarios, in 2050, more than 70% of the energy supply will be based on renewable energies. Electricity will be the main energy carrier.
The use of renewable energies should reduce the use of carbon-based energies (oil, fossil gas, coal). Off-grid energy production and consumption will increase in all scenarios (between + 32% and + 45% in 2050 compared to 2015). Depending on the scenario, RE increases from 9% in 2015, to 11% or 16% of final demand in 2030, then to 16% or 29% in 2050.
The development of network energies (electricity, gas and heating networks) makes it possible to reduce the use of petroleum products for all purposes. Depending on the scenario, from 24% in 2015, electricity will cover 27% to 29% of final demand in 2030, then 38% to 52% in 2050. Network gas, which accounted for 19% of demand in 2015, will meet between 16% and 21% of needs in 2030, then 14% to 20% in 2050.
In all scenarios, electricity becomes the main energy vector, given its capacity to decarbonise uses. In 2050, total electricity consumption will increase compared to 2015 in almost all scenarios. It will grow due to the increase in direct demand (industry, building, transport, etc.) and indirect demand (production of hydrogen, in particular), as well as to the need to develop new energy sources.On the other hand, the need to implement technological sinks and major carbon capture and storage processes (BECCS, DACCS and CCS), which are themselves very energy intensive.
All the scenarios require a very strong growth of the electric RE capacities (+ 5.5 to + 8.9 GW/year on average over the period 2020-2050 depending on the scenario).
Tecsol of1 December 2021