L R AS Published on Sunday 5 December 2021 - n° 385 - Categories:forecasts;
The new forecasts for 2021
The new forecast for 2021
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global solar PV deployment is set to grow by 17% this year, despite soaring commodity prices
which increases manufacturing costs. 156 GW of solar will be added worldwide in 2021. BloombergNEF puts this annual total at 191 GW, IHS Markit at 171 GW, SolarPower Europe at 163 GW
Total installed PV capacity will reach about 894 GW this year
The IEA believes that the record renewable energy additions this year are another sign of the emergence of a new global energy economy. "The high commodity and energy prices we are seeing today pose new challenges for the renewable energy industry, but high fossil fuel prices also make renewables even more competitive."
Current increases in feedstock prices are putting upward pressure on investment costs, while the availability of raw materials and rising energy prices are making it difficult for the industry to compete.The current increases in raw material prices are putting upward pressure on investment costs, while the availability of raw materials and rising electricity prices in some markets are posing additional challenges for solar PV manufacturers in the short term.
Since the beginning of 2020, PV-grade silicon prices are estimated to have more than quadrupled, steel to have increased by 50%, aluminium by 80% and copper by 60%. Added to this is the massive increase in transport costs from China to Europe and North America, sometimes increasing tenfold.
According to the IEA, raw materials and transport costs account for about 15% of the total investment costs of solar PV plants. It estimates that the overall capital cost of PV plants could increase by around 25%, based on a comparison of average feedstock prices between 2019 and 2021.
Rising feedstock and freight prices pose a challenge to developers who have been winning bids in auctions in anticipation of a continued decline in panel costs. Around 100 GW of solar PV and wind capacity awarded but not yet commissioned between 2019 and 2021 is likely to be hit by commodity price shocks, which could lead to delays in commissioning.
If commodity and freight prices do not moderate in the near future, the trend towards lower costs for solar PV will continue and the long-term impact on demand for this technology may be minimal.
https://www.pv-tech.org/solar-pv-remains-powerhouse-of-growth-despite-higher-commodity-prices-iea/
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With its 2021 installation forecast, the IEA estimates that more needs to be done to cancel greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century.
The IEA says that if panel prices were to remain at current levels through 2022, this would add an additional $70 billion to the investment amount over the next five years. This would have allowed an additional 95 GW of solar capacity to be installed over this period at pre-price shock panel prices
The agency estimates that over the next five years, the world is expected to add 1.1 TW of solar, or an average of 220 GW per year.
The IEA fears that that "a year of rising panel prices (due to the cost of silicon, steel, copper, aluminium, shipping costs) could wipe out three years of cost reductions. The organisation also points to the threat of higher interest rates from central banks, which would make it more expensive to finance projects. Finally, it warns of a plethora of trade measures imposed on solar imports.
Editor's note: How do you reconcile the forecast for global solar panel installations, which engineering firms are predicting will be 17% or more higher in 2021 than in 2020, with the message from industry to global users that there is a shortage of silicon? A shortage means a lack of silicon to produce panels. Yet 17% more would have been produced! What is this inconsistency?
The IEA's observation that the capital costs of a solar power plant will rise by 25% between 2019 and 2021 as a result of multiple price increases for raw materials and shipping costs is probably more significant than the other statements. In fact, this basic movement on raw materials, the desire of the various players to capture part of the price increases, the strong probability of an increase in interest rates, all of which pose a danger to the industry.The photovoltaic industry is in danger and will have to undertake a thorough review of the design and technology of panels as we know them, in favour of products that are less expensive because they are made differently
