L R AS Published on Monday 29 November 2021 - n° 384 - Categories:Australia

Will RE allow the price per kWh to fall? In Australia, this is being considered

Despite the imminent closure of several ageing fossil fuel power stations in Australia, continued growth in renewable energy capacity (rooftop solar, wind and large-scale solar, as well as energy stored in large batteries) is expected to lower household electricity bills in the coming years.Despite the imminent closure of several ageing fossil fuel power stations in Australia, continued growth in renewable energy capacity (rooftop solar, wind and large-scale solar, as well as energy stored in large batteries) is expected to drive down household electricity bills in the coming years.

The Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) predicts a national average drop in annual bills of 6%, or $77, by 2024, as cheaper renewable energy comes on stream for consumers.

Prices are expected to fall slightly this financial year, then rise by around $20 a year in the 2022/23 financial year when a large coal-fired plant leaves the grid. The bill will then fall when this lost capacity is replaced by a combination of solar, wind, gas and battery energy storage. So 2.5 GW will be taken off the grid over the next three years. This will be offset by almost 5,500 MW of new large-scale generation and storage projects coming online over the same period. This is in addition to the 4,130 MW of new rooftop solar PV capacity, which will also influence prices by reducing demand and through exports.

The price of electricity paid by consumers will tend to fall over the next three years. But while wholesale and environmental costs tend to decrease, additional investments will have to be made in the networks. This trend is expected to accelerate over the next decade, as more network investment will be needed to connect the new dispersed generation to the grid.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/11/25/renewables-to-drive-down-prices-as-fossil-fuel-generators-exit-australian-electricity-market/

PV Magazine of 25 November 2021

Editor's note: This summary forward-looking analysis indicates that the pace of new renewable energy installations must be higher than the capacity being retired. Even in this case, RE is lagging behind: 2.5 GW withdrawn is not compensated by 2.5 GW of RE

Another interest: the centralised organisation based on large thermal power plants must be reorganised by the decentralised network that is being set up. For the time being, it seems difficult to determine the cost and therefore the influence on the users' bill. The reason is that it is not yet possible to determine what will have to be changed or adapted!

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