L R AS Published on Friday 5 November 2021 - n° 381 - Categories:minister-regulation

The RTE study or the difficulty to envisage the future

We began reading the 61-page document without prejudice, and even with a favourable opinion, because at last there was a serious, reflective study and a comparison between two opinions that separate France so open, unpredictable and involving two almost irreducible conceptions of the economy.The future is so open, unpredictable and involving two almost irreducible conceptions of the economy.

This perhaps explains why the authors of this study were obliged to take a bias in favour of nuclear power. They know what exists, nuclear power.

On the other hand, they have difficulty, legitimately, in perceiving what renewable energies will bring. These are still marginal (solar energy represents 2% of national production). Moreover, they are intermittent, hence the need to organise the gap between two productions. We are talking about batteries, but lithium retains energy for about four hours. And beyond that? How do you do it?

If the study had presented the energy problem in this way, there would have been no reason to reject it.

However, the authors' biases, their gross lack of information on the development of renewable energies, their untruths about the respective costs of a nuclear power plant and the cost of its operation, and the fact that the study is not based on a simple analysis of the energy problem, do not make it any less interesting.However, the authors' biases, their crude lack of information on the evolution of renewable energies, their untruths about the respective cost of a nuclear power plant and its operating cost compared to RE-based generators discredit this study, which is otherwise full of information, graphs, comments, etc.

Below are the titles of the 18 chapters as well as the paragraph headings. It would have been very difficult to summarise this 60-page study in a single page! For those interested, the full document can be found at https://assets.rte-france.com/prod/public/2021-10/Futurs-Energetiques-2050-principaux-resultats_0.pdf

To go further: A look at the RTE study, or the biased study at all levels

In Le Fil de la Semaine n°380the introduction to the article France's electrical future

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1°) Acting on consumption through energy efficiency, or even sobriety, is essential to achieve climate objectives

- France's low-carbon strategy is already largely based on energy efficiency

- The adoption of energy sobriety would allow for an even greater reduction in energy consumption but is a societal project in itself

- Controlling consumption remains the key to right-sizing investments and ensuring their long-term sustainability

2°) Energy consumption will decrease but electricity consumption will increase to replace fossil fuels

- Electricity consumption is expected to increase even with the strong development of energy efficiency

- Electricity consumption will increase because electricity has to replace fossil fuels

- All scenarios, variants and sensitivity tests are oriented in the same direction

3°) Accelerating the reindustrialisation of the country, by electrifying processes, increases electricity consumption but reduces France's carbon footprint

- A scenario of industrial reconquest based on low-carbon energy has a great climatic interest

- In a reindustrialised economy, the increase in electricity consumption will be higher than in the reference trajectory

- In a re-industrialised economy, France's carbon footprint decreases significantly

4°) Achieving carbon neutrality in 2050 is impossible without significant development of renewable energies

- Maintaining a large nuclear fleet in the long term will allow massive decarbonisation, but is far from sufficient to achieve carbon neutrality

- Significantly developing renewable energies in France is, in any case, absolutely essential to achieve carbon neutrality

5°) Doing without new nuclear reactors implies a faster pace of development of renewable energies than in the most dynamic European countries

- The "100% renewable" scenarios require a strong acceptability of renewable energies and a very important inflexion of the development rates

- Around the world, many strategies for achieving carbon neutrality are not based on a "100% renewable" electricity system

6°) Building new nuclear reactors makes economic sense, especially when it allows us to maintain a fleet of around 40 GW in 2050 (existing and new nuclear power)

- There is an economic space to build new reactors

- Their economic interest is conditioned by access to financing possibilities that do not differ from those of other low-carbon technologies

- The economic advantage is identified in the vast majority of variants

7°) Renewable electric energy has become a competitive solution. This is all the more marked in the case of large solar and wind farms on land and at sea

- The costs of a 100% renewable scenario based on large farms can be close to those of new renewable energies, provided that they are based on the best available technology.The costs of a 100% renewable scenario based on large-scale wind farms can approach those of new renewable energies, provided that they are based on an efficient and flexible "hydrogen system" and that the challenge of floating wind power is met

- The development of large renewable energy parks presents an economic advantage when it does not lead to a significant development of flexibilities

- The scenarios of nuclear phase-out from 2050 (M0) or based mainly on diffuse solar (M1) are significantly more expensive than the other options

8°) The control resources that the system needs to guarantee security of supply are very different according to the scenarios. There is an economic interest to increase the control of consumption, to develop interconnections and hydraulic storage, as well as to install batteries to accompany solar. Beyond that, the need to build new thermal power plants based on decarbonised gas stocks (including hydrogen) is important if the revival of nuclear power is minimal and it becomes massive - and therefore costly - if we move towards 100% renewable energy.

- Strengthening the interconnections between France and its neighbours represents a strong lever of economy which implies a degree of interdependence between European partners

- Hydraulic storage, demand management and batteries are relevant solutions for managing fluctuations on a daily or even weekly scale

- Hydraulic storage, demand management, batteries: low cost solutions

9°) In all scenarios, electricity grids must be rapidly resized to make the energy transition possible

- Networks are at the heart of the energy transition

- The transmission network: structural changes from 2030, and much more important in the 100% renewable scenarios

- The distribution network: significant adaptations that can double depending on the scenario to meet the increase in consumption and connect new production facilities

10°) Creating a high-performance "low-carbon hydrogen system" is an asset for decarbonising certain sectors that are difficult to assess, and a necessity for the development of the energy sector.10°) Creating a high-performance "low-carbon hydrogen system" is an asset for decarbonising certain sectors that are difficult to identify, and a necessity in scenarios with very high renewable energy development in order to store energy

- A priority lever: decarbonising current uses of hydrogen and developing new ones in industry and freight transport

- A long-term lever: develop flexible hydrogen storage in the perspective of scenarios with high proportions of renewable energy

11°) Scenarios with a very high proportion of renewable energies, or the one requiring the extension of existing nuclear reactors beyond 60 years, imply heavy technological bets in order to reach carbon neutrality in 2050

- The technological requirements associated with the scenarios with a high proportion of renewables have been explained in the joint report published by RTE and the International Energy Agency (January 2021)

- Maintaining a nuclear base of around 50 gigawatts also presents technological challenges

- A scenario maintaining a large nuclear production capacity combined with a significant development of renewables is likely to limit the risk of not reaching the climate objectives

12°) The transformation of the electricity system must now integrate the likely consequences of climate change, notably on water resources, heat waves or wind regimes

- Climate change will modify consumption and production profiles: its consequences must be integrated into the design and adaptation of the electricity system

- As a result of the changing mix, the balance of the system will be more sensitive to wind conditions and no longer primarily to temperature

13°) The development of renewable energies raises the issue of space occupation and limitation of uses. It can be intensified without exerting excessive pressure on the artificialisation of land, but it must be pursued in each territory while taking care to preserve the living environment

- The acceptance of wind and solar energy is an issue of integration into the living environment before being environmental

- Renewable energies do not, in general, lead to a high level of sealing and artificialization of surfaces

- The surfaces on which renewable energies are installed are generally accessible to co-use, subject to conditions in the case of photovoltaics

14°) Even if we integrate the complete carbon footprint of infrastructures over their entire life cycle, electricity in France will remain largely decarbonised and will make a significant contribution to achieving carbon neutrality by replacing fossil fuels

- The carbon balance of renewable energies and nuclear power is very good, even when their life cycle is integrated

- Developing electric renewables has a climate benefit even though 93% of French electricity is already decarbonised today

- The electrification of uses alone can reduce France's emissions by 35% by 2050

15°) The energy transition economy may generate tensions on the supply of mineral resources, particularly for certain metals, which will need to be anticipated

- The energy transition reduces dependence on fossil fuels but creates new needs and supply channels for mineral resources

- The growing need for specific metals for batteries, particularly for electric vehicles, is a real point of concern

- Materials such as copper are also under scrutiny, especially in the scenarios with a high share of renewable energy

- The scenarios for a revival of nuclear power require adjustments to the long-term strategy for the downstream cycle in order to manage the additional volumes of radioactive materials and waste over the long term

16°) For 2050: the carbon neutral electricity system can be achieved at a manageable cost for France

- The overall cost (per MWh) of the national electricity system is likely to increase, but in proportions that can be controlled (around 15% excluding inflation, in a median vision)

- To achieve carbon neutrality, the rate of investment in the electricity system must be doubled

- In a carbon neutral scenario, the cost of energy is more stable and no longer depends on fossil gas and oil prices

- Controlling the evolution of the cost of the electricity system requires a strong public framework to reduce the cost of financing new low-carbon production means and the network

- The total energy expenditure of the French will depend less and less on the price of hydrocarbons and more and more on the competitiveness of the electricity system

- In order for the moderate cost of the French electricity system to be directly reflected in the bills, redistribution mechanisms will have to be maintained

17°) For 2030: developing renewable energies as quickly as possible and extending existing nuclear reactors in a logic of maximising low-carbon production increases the chances of reaching the target of the new European package "-55% net".

- It is possible to accelerate the effort to reach the new 2030 target by mobilising all possible levers

- This trajectory implies maximising the production of low-carbon electricity

- The logic of adding low-carbon electricity production is a very competitive economic option for decarbonisation

- The interconnection of the European electricity system protects France from any risk of stranded cost in economic or climate terms

18°) Whatever the scenario chosen, there is an urgent need to mobilise

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