L R AS Published on Saturday 18 September 2021 - n° 374 - Categories:forecasts;
BloombergNEF forecasts for 2021 and 2022
Global solar power installations will reach 191 GW in 2021, up from 144 GW in 2020, a third more than last year. Silicon and panel prices will remain high through 2022, BloombergNEF predicts.
They would be between $15 and $20/kg, and around $0.20/W by the end of 2022, despite the 29% increase in silicon supply in 2022 and a further 57% in 2023.
This market development is due to the fact that demand for panels is exceeding expectations. For example, China will install more panels than expected. Similarly, some European countries are exceeding expectations, such as Poland, which plans to install 2-3 GW per year. Countries (notably in Africa) will also exceed their current targets, perhaps significantly.
BloombergNEF sees the solar industry continuing to grow. But this growth will be limited in the long term by a lack of land, difficulties in connecting to the grid and penetration into the electricity mix. Its global solar deployment forecast for 2030 is 311 GW per year. This level is "well below what would be needed to achieve the global goal of zero net emissions by 2050."
BNEF disagrees with JinkoSolar's view that it expects panel prices of $0.28-0.29/W for the rest of the year
The planned increases in silicon production will produce 270 GW in 2022 and 430 GW in 2023 assuming an average consumption of 2.8 g/W. These plants are located outside Xinjiang to avoid being affected by US import bans
PV Tech of 16 September 2021
Editor's note: Solar installation forecasters always err on the side of caution. But solar is now the cheapest energy. Developers can only resort to this energy and thus increase demand. Especially since a country's competitiveness will quickly be measured in terms of the volume of renewable installations installed.
The Chinese have clearly understood that the future depends on owning the manufacture of panels and have staked everything on this. As this control is fundamental for world supremacy, they will do everything to eliminate their competitors, which they have methodically and progressively organised up to now. Today we find ourselves with a single production, prices that rise according to the desires of this or that category of manufacturers. They know that there is no alternative to their products and that demand is pressing. The world is becoming dependent on China. You might as well be warned.