L R AS Published on Monday 14 December 2020 - n° 344 - Categories:silicon mono/multi
A second major reorganisation of the solar silicon industry is underway
A second major reorganisation of the solar silicon industry is underway, according to German analyst Bernreuter Research. He notes that 14 small Chinese silicon producers
have stopped production since 2017. In addition, the three South Korean producers, Norway's REC Silicon and half of Hemlock Semiconductor's production have stopped. As a result, 275,000 tonnes of silicon production capacity have been shut down in just a few half-years (compared to some 550,000 tonnes produced worldwide). This is double the capacity shutdown of the years 2010-2013.
Silicon production has been transferred to western China (Xinjiang, Mongolia, China).) where the cost of electricity is very low, bringing the cost of silicon production down to around $5 to $7/kilogram (Daqo had a cost of around $1.5/kilogram in 2006).t of $5.86/kg in thefirst quarter of 2020) The huge silicon requirements from the LONGi and Zhonghuan Semiconductor expansion programmes will lead to a silicon shortage in 2021. There will then be overproduction in 2022 when further capacity expansions come on stream. Bernreuter forecasts that production capacity will reach 270 GW in 2023, double the 127 GW of capacity in 2020. By 2022, the market price of silicon is expected to return to $8/kg and possibly $7/kg.
In 2020, Chinese manufacturer Tongwei has overtaken German manufacturer Wacker as the world's leading supplier of silicon.
PV Magazine of 10 December
Editor's note The announced increases in production capacity appear excessively large in comparison with the global installations of 2020 and probably 2021. There will probably be a struggle to sell, and therefore a sharp drop in prices in the next two years. The largest and lowest-cost manufacturers will survive. Industrial concentration will be exacerbated in 2021 and 2022.
