L R AS Published on Monday 30 November 2020 - n° 342 - Categories:Thread of the Week
Le Fil de la Semaine n° 342 of November 30th
THIS WEEK'S NEWS HIGHLIGHTS
* Italian Enel has big ambitions in RE
Other interesting articles :
* Daqo in the 3rd quarter.
* EVs at 10% of global passenger vehicle sales in 2025?
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESETITLES
* The Minister presents the BR 2020
On 24 November, the Ministry of Ecology presented the main orientations of the RE2020. This environmental regulation should revolutionise the construction sector. The main one affected is the gas sector, which is practically eliminated from new housing, from 2021 for individual houses and from 2024 for collective housing. The French Gas Federation is unhappy about this, because it says "great efforts have been made in recent years".
On the other hand, the wood or electricity sector is rather satisfied with the proposed orientations, because the wood sector will be privileged to the detriment of concrete. Electricity will also be favoured, even if RTE warns about the future availability of electricity in winter.
A dynamic life cycle analysis will evaluate the carbon emitted today rather than the carbon that will be emitted tomorrow. The federations point to an approach that "transfers responsibility for the proper management of emissions from products and materials in buildings constructed today to the next generations, which is ethically questionable and contrary to the principles of sustainable development". "This method of counting is extremely favourable to bio-sourced materials.
The federations point to an approach that "transfers the responsibility for the proper management of emissions from products and materials in buildings constructed today to future generations, which is ethically questionable and contrary to the principles of sustainable development. "Moreover, "this counting method is extremely favourable to bio-based materials,
Batiweb of 25 November
Editor's note We're in the middle of the exam result that determines a lifetime. That's a silly attitude. Overnight because the minister doesn't like gas, it must be scratched from new buildings. I don't have to take sides for gas, or against gas, but only I must evoke the reasonable attitude that would have imposed a transition, and not a cut that violently reduces the economic prospects of a sector. It is understandable that the sector is dissatisfied and that the heating engineers wonder about their future.
The same applies to photovoltaic installations. It would have been good if a transition had been made so that new buildings could install PV systems. This is not only the additional cost, estimated at 0.4% of the price of a building. It is not just the principle that is at issue, it is common sense. If RE really is the future, it must be allowed to be adopted gradually and spontaneously by the inhabitants. Here again, instead of allowing a smooth evolution of habits, tastes and experiences, the Minister believes she is doing the right thing by directing, imposing and even delaying the implementation of RE.volution as if the French were fools, as if they were not capable of choosing what is good for them, as if the State were the only one that could distinguish between good and bad.
As the examples of the management of the covid are far from satisfactory, as these decisions do not even seem arbitrary but above all clumsy, a distance is being established between the population and the elites. Let's not look any further for an explanation of the revolts that emerge here and there, yellow jackets, protests against anti-covid norms, against the global security law, refusal to recognise the Republic...
Enerplan, together with the Ministry of Housing and the Ministry of Energy Transition, calculated the additional cost of building a solar-ready building. Such a building must have enough space to accommodate solar panels, have a waterproof roof, sheaths to pass the cables or pipes necessary for a photovoltaic or thermal installation, proper insulation and have carried out a shading study.
The additional cost is 0.4% for a detached house and 0.3% for a small apartment building.
Enerplan concludes: "The future environmental regulations have ignored the positive energy building. In 2020, it's a question of common sense: every building must be able to produce heat or electricity from the sun".
Enerplan of November 24th
The Syndicat des Energies Renouvelables (SER) regrets "the limited consideration of solar electricity produced on new buildings". On the other hand, it "welcomes the fact that the government seems to be seizing the opportunity of the implementation of the RE2020, next summer, to accelerate the deployment of renewable solutions". "In the future 2020 environmental regulation, the carbon impact of a building will be taken into account throughout its entire life cycle, including the construction and demolition phases, while exclusive gas heating will be gradually excluded and replaced by alternative sources".
PV Magazine of 25 November
The Institut Photovoltaïque d'Ile-de-France (IPVF) wants to bring together photovoltaic players around innovative projects and build the industry of tomorrow. The IPVF Unite wants to be a link between research and users of photovoltaic technologies. It wants to be a disseminator of skills for energy production, for building construction, for transport, for agriculture, for service providers, which is what the IPVF stands for.sume in one sentence "to accelerate the creation of R&D value for industry through scientific excellence, innovation and collaboration. »
This will be achieved through meetings, better dialogue between the players with a directory, networking breakfasts, conferences, pooling of the most advanced and relevant projects, and putting current events into perspective. This action will involve setting up working groups to analyse and resolve specific issues.
Information and membership : https://ipvf.fr/contact/
PV Magazine of 27 November
Editor's note This initiative is particularly useful because it does not duplicate the work of the professional unions Enerplan or the SER. It aims to provide technology, to disseminate know-how, to bring together theory and practice. It remains about improving the daily work of the members of this association, about solving concrete problems encountered, and perhaps towards a sharing of best practices.
A tool is being put in place. Let us hope that it will fulfil its mission and that thanks to it photovoltaic energy in France will develop better.
During the third quarter of 2020, 604 MW of new RE facilities were connected to the metropolitan electricity grids, with wind and solar power accounting for 312 MW and 283 MW respectively. Renewable energies accounted for 24.2% of electricity consumption in metropolitan France in the third quarter of 2020 (and 27.3% over the last twelve months), generating 23.4 TWh of renewable electricity. This figure is up 7.2% compared with the same quarter last year.
Electricity consumption in the third quarter rebounded from the second quarter, which was marked by the health crisis. It is still down on the 1.7 TWh decline recorded in the third quarter of 2019.
The solar farm's capacity stood at 10,201 MW at 30 September 2020, with 283 MW connected during the last quarter. The symbolic bar of 10 GW has thus been crossed. Over the past 12 months, 827 MW have been connected. By the end of 2023, the EPP is aiming for a 20,100 MW park, an objective that is currently 50% achieved.
With 4.46 TWh produced during the last three months, the sector beats its previous record dating from the previous quarter (4.43 TWh). Production is up 4.9% compared with the third quarter of 2019. The rate of coverage of electricity consumption by solar energy thus stands at 4.6% for this quarter (2.9% over the past 12 months).
Syndicat des Energies Renouvelables of 24 November
In addition to its activity of building large wind and solar power plants, Voltalia is launching a "self-consumption" activity. The company wants to make the use of solar energy more accessible. It relies on recognised suppliers (JA Solar, the Goodwe and Hoymiles inverters and the European ESDEC grid system) and on complementary services such as a guarantee and after-sales service.
It has just signed an agreement with Comwatt. This provides for the digitisation of the customer path with video-conferencing of advisers and the presence of an energy analyser that indicates which equipment consumes in the home, but above all to optimise self-consumption by shifting part of the consumption to the time when it is free (during production).
The presence of Voltalia offers a guarantee to the customer, reassures users and establishes a foothold in the general public.
Tecsol 25th November
Editor's note The evolution of the company is interesting to summarise: originally, it built clean energy plants (wind, solar, biomass). It focused on wind power plants in Brazil, which at one time accounted for more than 80% of its energy production. This country has not been forgotten, but the company has diversified into solar energy in Europe and of course in France, into large power plants. A few semesters ago, various contracts were obtained in other geographical areas (Egypt, Morocco). Always with large power plants.
About a year ago, the merger with Helexia, another company of the group, opened up another horizon, that of small solar installations (roofs, sheds, shades, etc.). On the one hand, it recently joined forces with IKEA to install solar systems on the roofs of private homes. On the other hand, the company is creating another market, that of the complements of solar systems for private individuals, that of self-consumption and does it in association with a professional of the installation of management systems for the valorisation of energy production. Of course this new activity is still marginal, but it creates diversification. This diversification indicates that the potential of private individuals exists. It has been relatively neglected until now.
The evolution of Voltalia is different from that of Neoen, which specialises in the installation and ownership of large solar power plants around the world, and for some years now, in energy storage.
We are therefore faced with two very different strategies, which are themselves quite separate from power plant installers working on the basis of calls for tender, even if some companies are resolutely placing themselves on the international scene, such as Akuo, Total Eren and several others.
* The attractiveness of countries in terms of renewable energy
The Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index (RECAI) established by EY (formerly Ernst Young) ranks the different countries.
The United States maintains its first place thanks to the strong support of the Covid-19 stimulus packages for renewable energy projects and the potential return in the Paris Climate Accords. Despite the pandemic, China maintains second place in the index, driven by the solar energy sector, which remains the driving force, and the very strong prospects for wind power.
Australia reaches its highest position in the index, ranking third, thanks to announcements of solar and hydrogen mega-projects for export.
France, which was third a year ago, ranks seventh. Tenders have been postponed due to the covid. This ranking can be explained in particular by the draft amendment aimed at reviewing the feed-in tariffs for solar installations (which has since been the subject of an amendment to abolish it by the Senate) but also by announcements from theIndia (4th) which has set a target of 510 GW by 2030 and the United Kingdom (5th) which has just announced a target of 40 GW for offshore wind power in 2030 (i.e. a fourfold increase compared to current capacities).
France remains attractive thanks to the national hydrogen development plan (7 billion euros) and more generally to the part of the green recovery plan allocated to the energy and ecological transition (around 30 billion euros). In addition, energy purchase agreements (EPAs) are developing.
Hydrogen Hydrogen: there is a political consensus on the development of the sector; the objective is to make the production of green hydrogen competitive; by 2024, the intention is to install 6 GW of electrolysers in order to produce one million tons; hydrogen is sought for storing energy and will be complementary to batteries.
Artificial intelligence It should improve the balance of the network between supply and demand in order to limit the phenomena of cuts. This will make it possible to reduce reserve stocks and lower the network's operating costs; predictive maintenance will alert to future breakdowns: maintenance measures can be adapted without being surprised, which will increase revenues; finally, projects will be much more reliable because the assessment of financing conditions will be improved.
EY of 26 November
Editor's note The document presented by EY seems to be a summary, because on the one hand it only talks about France and it does not justify its assertions, which is a pity. There is no presentation of studies beforehand, which leaves the reader hungry.
As for the catalogue of benefits of artificial intelligence, we will see what it will be when it is implemented. It's a bit too pink-bonbon.
* Italy favours self-consumption
Last March, Italy had introduced measures to encourage investment in renewable energies: households, companies and public entities could produce, sell and distribute them.
This week, a tariff of €0.11 and €0.10 per kWh has been introduced and will be shared among the members of the group. Two categories have been created: self-consumption collectives bring together consumers located in the same building or group of buildings. Energy communities are broader and may include companies or public bodies located in the area close to the electricity generator.
Self-consumption electricity is not subject to charges but does not benefit from a direct incentive. The indirect incentive is an avoided electricity cost (the unconsumed electricity from the grid) ranging from €0.13 to €0.20/kWh. This requires that all participants are connected to the same low-voltage transformer substation. The Italia Solare association believes that "there is no doubt that there could be a strong acceleration in collective (or self-consumption) consumption, which until now has remained stationary".
PV Magazine of 25 November
From1 April 2021, Switzerland will increase the aid for the installation of small PV systems (not exceeding 30 kW) from 340 francs (€314) to 380 francs (€351) per installed kilowatt.
However, for installations of more than 30 kW, support will be reduced from 300 to 290 francs.
The Indian Prime Minister wants to increase support for the manufacture of solar panels, especially those with high efficiency. He wants India to produce the panels that will be installed in the country and whose volume should reach 36 GW over the next three years. He wants to make India "a global manufacturing centre" in the renewable energy sector.
At the same time, the Prime Minister has raised the target for green power generation capacity from 175 GW to 220 GW by 2022 (RE installations currently reach 136 GW).
Not long ago, solar panels were included in the ten or so sectors that were to benefit from incentives for their development. This programme includes an investment of $603 million over five years to support the national development of high efficiency panels and $2.4 billion to stimulate the manufacture of cells for batteries.
PV Tech of 27 November
NDLR The perseverance of the public authorities is remarkable. They will succeed in making India a world manufacturing centre.
When will the European Commission draw inspiration from this?
* Device seems promising
Thin layers of perovskite were produced using a two-nozzle device: "One nozzle sprays a liquid solution of chemical precursors of perovskite onto a glass pane, while the other releases a jet of highly reactive ionised gas called plasma". This new method proposed by Stanford University produces a layer of perovskite in one go and four times faster than previous processes. It would be capable of producing 12 metres of perovskite film per minute. The cell has an efficiency of 18% and the panel 15.5%.
The process could produce a panel that is ten times cheaper (at $0.25 per square foot) than one based on crystalline silicon.
NDLR Without being able to judge better than through this document, this process seems promising both for the technique used and for the cost of production. This means that we are getting closer to the commercialisation of perovskite cells and perhaps tandem cells.
After having obtained a hydrogen capacity target, pressure groups are now asking for more volume and subsidies.
Several associations and pressure groups have obtained that hydrogen be considered as the product of the future, in defiance of very many serious and in-depth studies, including that of BloombergNEF. They come back to the charge by arguing that Europe's objective (40 GW by 2030) is too modest, that it could be more than doubled, and that the 160 to 200 TWh of electrolysis capacity could be increased to 540 TWh.
White papers, reports, studies are flourishing at the same time, indicating concerted action from the Bill Gates Coalition for Energy Sustainability (Editor's note What's in it for Europe?), from Material Economics, consultant in energy transition, from Solarpower Europe ...
According to Material Economics, if the cost of green hydrogen rises from 4 or 5 €/kg to 1.70 or 2 €/kg, if the price of carbon supported by contracts for difference is increased from 4 or 5 €/kg to 1.70 or 2 €/kg, the price of carbon supported by contracts for difference will rise to between 50 and 60 €/tonne, and if companies continue to set strict climate targets, European demand for hydrogen could reach 1.2 to 1.4 PWh. This demand would require 280 GW of additional renewable energy capacity to reach the low end of the estimate. Material Economics believes that it is misleading to consider green hydrogen as uneconomic even though its price of €4 to €5/kg is more than double that of grey hydrogen, which currently costs €1 to €2/kg, compared to the current carbon price of €25/tonne. Using hydrogen to produce a one-tonne car would only add €100 to the price of a €29,000 vehicle (NDLR there is not only steel in the price of a car. It would have to include everything, as well as changes in production equipment.).
The cost of switching to hydrogen for a power of 1.2 PWh would cost between €545 and €690 billion (€90/105 billion for electrolysers, €250/300 billion for renewable energy production capacity and €30/60 billion for transport infrastructure). The major user brands are expected to contribute €175-225 billion.
The study mentions that Chinese electrolysers can be up to 80% cheaper than those used by Europeans.
To make the project profitable, the EU will have to provide support for operating costs so that companies can buy the renewable energy they need to ensure the continuous production of hydrogen. It will also need to provide low-cost financing.
PV Magazine of 27 November
Editor's note After the adoption of the European choice in favour of hydrogen, the fishing for subsidies has begun.
The logic of the transition to hydrogen is poorly laid out. You start at the end to go up the chain of activity, whereas you should start at the beginning, the industrial process. The needs, the low prices of hydrogen between now and 2030, and of course the horizon of 2050, which nobody can foresee. The cost of this transition is calculated to the nearest cent. All this without any quantified justification.
We are already ready to ask for subsidies, but the industrial process is not available: the European technology is not perfected because the material (according to the hydrogen promoters) is up to four times more expensive than the Chinese process. Of course we may need hydrogen in the future, but let's start at the beginning and not at the end: it is a question of having a satisfactory, inexpensive and competitive technology, capable of competing with the Chinese before launching "gas factories" (that's the case) and large projects that will never be profitable on the international market.
* Daqo in the 3rd quarter
In the third quarter, Chinese silicon manufacturer Daqo produced 18,406 tonnes (compared with 18,097 tonnes in the second quarter). It benefited from an increase in sales prices. It rose from $7.04/kg to $9.13. This enabled the gross profit to double to $45 million.
The company estimates the volume to be sold in the fourth quarter at between 20,500 and 21,500 tonnes, bringing annual sales to around 76,000 tonnes.
With a current capacity of 45 GW of RE, Enel expects to reach 60 GW in 2023 (+ 33%) with €17 billion of investments, then 120 GW of RE in 2030 with €70 billion spent over the decade.
At the same time, the group will invest in electromobility, high-speed fibre optic broadband and the flexibility of the electricity network, which will be done in partnership with third parties.
PV Magazine of 25 November
* EVs at 10% of global passenger vehicle sales in 2025?
Electric vehicles (EVs) will account for 10% of global passenger vehicle sales in 2025, rising to 28% in 2030 and 58% in 2040. while they will represent less than 33% of all cars on the road, according to a study by BloombergNEF. Only, there will still be more kilometres travelled worldwide by internal combustion passenger vehicles than by EVs.
Accelerating the adoption of EVs will first be achieved by reaching price parity with ICE-based vehicles. This will start when large vehicles reach this point in Europe, which is expected to happen in 2022. It will end with small cars reaching this point in India and Japan around 2030.
The European and Chinese markets should account for 72 % of all tourist EV sales in 2030. By 2030, China and Europe should achieve the feat that 50 % of all cars on the road are EVs. This will be due to the other need for support for the adoption of EVs, political support.
PV Magazine of 26 November / BloombergNEF
Editor's note How beautiful it is to make projections on the moon! If we remember well ten or fifteen years ago, electric vehicles were to invade cities between 2020 and 2025 and become widespread! What is the current situation? A success of curiosity.
Australia shows us what is going to happen (cf Electric vehicles are now taxed in Australia, for example).). As soon as there are more electric vehicles: a tax or charge will be applied to them! Why is this? Because the States have found a financial windfall from fuel taxes. Still dry, governments will be able to find the new source of income called vignette, tax, on new vehicles. That the ecologists will shout scandal, it doesn't matter! Necessity is the law. Individuals will have the choice between paying a painless tax on petrol or a flat-rate tax that will be clearly visible on the vehicle (or on electricity, but that's unlikely). Vehicles that don't drive much will be better off staying on petrol. The others will switch to electricity, but the batteries must have made great progress in terms of longevity.
Moreover, even without this tax point, BloombergNEF estimates that petrol vehicles will continue to run more than electric vehicles in ten years' time. It is likely that the deadline for the generalisation of electric vehicles will be postponed until 2040 or even 2050. This is also what progress is all about: postponing what could have been earlier!