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Electric vehicles (EVs) will account for 10% of world passenger vehicle sales in 2025, this figure rising to 28% in 2030 and 58% in 2040.

58% of world passenger vehicle sales in 2040 will be electric vehicles (EVs), whereas they will represent less than 33% of all cars on the road, according to a study by BloombergNEF. However, there will still be more kilometres travelled worldwide by internal combustion passenger vehicles than by EVs.

Accelerating the adoption of EVs will first be achieved by reaching price parity with ICE-based vehicles. This will start when large vehicles reach this point in Europe, which is expected to happen in 2022. It will end with small cars reaching this point in India and Japan around 2030.

The European and Chinese markets should account for 72 % of all tourist EV sales in 2030. By 2030, China and Europe should achieve the feat that 50 % of all cars on the road are EVs. This will be due to the other need for support for the adoption of EVs, political support.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/11/26/the-future-of-cars-is-electric-but-how-soon-is-this-future/

https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/

PV Magazine of 26 November / BloombergNEF

Editor's note How beautiful it is to make projections on the moon! If we remember well ten or fifteen years ago, electric vehicles were to invade cities between 2020 and 2025 and become widespread! What is the current situation? A success of curiosity.

Australia shows us what is going to happen (cf Electric vehicles are now taxed in Australia, for example).). As soon as there are more electric vehicles: a tax or charge will be applied to them! Why is this? Because the States have found a financial windfall from fuel taxes. Still dry, governments will be able to find the new source of income called vignette, tax, on new vehicles. That the ecologists will shout scandal, it doesn't matter! Necessity is the law. Individuals will have the choice between paying a painless tax on petrol or a flat-rate tax that will be clearly visible on the vehicle (or on electricity, but that's unlikely). Vehicles that don't drive much will be better off staying on petrol. The others will switch to electricity, but the batteries must have made great progress in terms of longevity.

Moreover, even without this tax point, BloombergNEF estimates that petrol vehicles will continue to run more than electric vehicles in ten years' time. It is likely that the deadline for the widespread use of electric vehicles will be postponed until 2040 or even 2050. This is also what progress is all about: postponing what could have been earlier!