L R AS Published on Monday 19 October 2020 - n° 336 - Categories:Thread of the Week
Le Fil de la Semaine n° 336 of October 19th
THIS WEEK'S NEWS HIGHLIGHTS
If there were only five texts to read this week :
FRANCE
* French panel manufacturers want to be protected from imports
THE FILE
* Is the PV industry moving towards a new dynamism?
THE WORLD
* Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) are expected to reach 300 MW in Germany in 2020
THE COMPANIES
* The shares of the American company Array Technologies have just been listed on the stock exchange.
Other interesting articles :
FRANCE
* Reminder of the target of 100,000 charging stations
* Three solar projects in Nantes
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THE SUBSIDIARY
* What effect will global warming have on solar power plants?
* In 2019, the world's 30 largest EPC suppliers installed 28 GW of non-residential PV,
* The world's leading power plant developers and manufacturers
THE WORLD
* Five European panel manufacturers with a big future.
* German equipment manufacturers in the first half of the year
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THE PRODUCTS
* A chemical product increases the efficiency of a panel by 20%.
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THE COMPANIES* The shares of the American company Array Technologies have just been listed on the stock exchange.
* THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE TITLES
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FRANCE
* Ademe's budget for 2021
The Ademe budget for 2021 provides for a 50% increase in its aid and incentives to bring it to 1.1 billion euros:
350 M€ for production
of renewable heat and recovery.
125 M€ for the hydrogen strategy.
100 M€ in favour of VSE/SMEs for ecodesign, sustainable tourism or engineering aid.
150 M€ earmarked for 15 projects so that the players invest €430 million and save 135,000 tonnes of CO2 per year in France.
90 M€ to develop sustainable heating on ten networks.
32 M€ to create three solid fuel energy recovery units.
22 M€ to install two hydrogen-based ecosystems. 20 M€ to recycle polluted industrial and mining wastelands.
20 M€ for the recycling of polluted industrial and mining wastelands.
Full Sun of 16th October
NDLR Note that only €889m has been detailed out of the €1.1bn announced.
* Reminder of the target of 100,000 recharging stations
The Ministers of Transport and Energy Transition are trying to intervene so that the players (local elected representatives, supermarkets, the automobile industry, motorways, etc.) install 100,000 electric vehicle recharging stations by 2022. To achieve this, the premiums of the Advenir programme have been increased from €1,000/2,000 to €2,000/ €9,000 and up to 60% of the charging stations open to the public. 100 million will be distributed to motorway service areas to install fast charging stations. The old terminals will be renovated. A €1,000 bonus will be granted for the purchase of second-hand electric vehicles.
Tecsol of 14 October 2020
NDLR Why install charging stations if there are no electric vehicles coming? Conversely, why would a private individual buy an electric vehicle if he is not sure how far he will be able to travel with it and if he cannot find recharging stations?
In this dilemma, installers will wait for these vehicles to multiply before installing them. At the same time, private individuals will wait on their own! The President of the Republic may well define the objective of 100,000 recharging stations by 2022, but it is very likely that nothing will be done in the immediate future. The ministers then seized an opportunity to leave Paris, to recall the presidential objective and to have their photo taken.
* French panel manufacturers want to be protected from imports
Several managers* in the solar industrial production sector are calling for measures to protect the sector from Chinese imports, which account for 80% of installations in France. They point out that there is a paradox in wanting to reindustrialise France and at the same time letting Chinese manufacturers destroy the few remaining French manufacturers. They make the following proposals:
1- Create a carbon eco-participation, in order to take into account all the environmental impacts of products and to promote environmental excellence.
2- Implement a bonus that favours responsible companies and customers, by introducing a 10% bonus on the feed-in tariff for photovoltaic electricity for carbon values below 350 kg of CO2/kWp (ECS calculation).
3- Making the self-consumption bonus conditional on an ambitious carbon footprint, i.e. an Ecopassport PEP value of less than 1,000 kg of CO2/kWp.
4- Maintain the carbon rating in calls for tenders and not replace it with the criterion of surface efficiency, which would give an additional advantage to foreign players.
5- Condition public funding on local content, taking into account the production capacities available in France.
6- Make the RE2020 a booster of the energy transition by including a minimum self-production level of 50% in the requirements of the RE2020, taking into account for the calculation of consumption, in addition to the basic uses (heating system, domestic hot water, ventilation, lighting), all other movable uses (household appliances, TV, IT, etc.).) which are now becoming predominant.
*Signatories: Pierre Cantrelle (CEO of Voltec Solar), Véronique Charrier (CEO of Semco-Smatech), Eric Goubier (Technical product manager of Recom Silla), François Guérin (CEO of Cetih), Hamlet Tuyan (CEO of Recom Silla), Lucas Weiss (CEO of Voltec Solar), Yvan Trouillot (CEO of ECM Greentech), Jean-Philippe Leray (director of Dome Solar).
https://www.usinenouvelle.com/article/avis-d-expert-sauver-la-filiere-solaire-francaise.N1016274
L'usine Nouvelle of 15 October
Editor's note These managers are right
We cannot facilitate the sale of Chinese panels in France and not have reciprocity of exports to China.
We can't need a photovoltaic industry in France and wait for the panels to come from China.
China's political will to eliminate all competition in the various countries by building huge production capacities with the aim of selling excess production at low prices cannot be overlooked.
We cannot consider that the future in France is solar energy and not protect the industries that allow it.
One cannot always favour installers who want the lowest prices and want to fight unemployment with subsidies.
The Chinese are clever. If there are limitations in France, they will go through Holland, Belgium, ... because there is free circulation of goods, because their objective is to eliminate competition, because they rely on low prices to put European manufacturers in difficulty.
The fight to safeguard a photovoltaic industry is certainly French, but also and above all European. The previous Commission was afraid of displeasing the Chinese. What will the new Commission do, probably more aware than the previous one of the Chinese threat? Will it manage to defend Europe's higher interests or will it be at the behest of interest groups that only consider their interests, as we saw when customs duties were abolished?
* Three solar projects in Nantes
Engie Green has won three solar projects on the Nantes-Saint Nazaire Port land estate. They will occupy 15 hectares and have a power of 12 MWp. The works will start at the end of 2021 and will be completed in the first half of 2022.
One of these projects contains a daily solar irradiation forecasting system, in order to predict the amount of energy produced by the plant. It will be carried out by Réuniwatt, a specialist in solar radiation.
Tecsol of 12 October 2020
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THE FILE* What effect will global warming have on solar power plants?
The increase in temperatures caused by climate change will have a direct impact on the performance of photovoltaic installations, as it affects the yield of solar panels. But it could also increase humidity, aerosols and particles in the atmosphere. Princeton University shows that photovoltaic installations in hot and arid regions of the world, such as the Middle East and the southwestern United States, will be particularly affected by climate change, in the form of an increase in the number of cloudy days and a decrease in solar radiation levels.
They assessed the likelihood of loss of plant efficiency. A slight decrease in solar radiation in the Middle East and North Africa could lead to a significant increase in these losses. Power plant developers need to design better plants and optimise storage to compensate for the intermittent sunshine
In August 2019, MIT researchers estimated that climate change would reduce the efficiency of solar panels. The reduction could be as much as 50 kWh per installed kilowatt. For every degree of temperature increase, the loss in efficiency would be 0.45%.
The effect of pollution has been measured in Delhi, India. If we compare the situation before the confinement (with a lot of pollution) with the situation at the end of the confinement (in March, characterised by less human activity), the radiation difference was 8.3%.
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/10/13/climate-change-to-reduce-solar-radiation-in-hot-arid-regions/
PV Magazine of 14 October
* Is the PV industry moving towards a new dynamism?
15% of solar projects in Europe are reported to have been delayed or cancelled due to the coronavirus crisis, according to a recent McKinsey warning. Financial difficulties and reduced working hours have prevented many people from investing. The persistent decline in commodity prices has made conventional energy sources more attractive, and the expansion of renewable energy less popular. Lower electricity prices have reduced the future profitability of photovoltaics and wind power. Business investment incentives have not materialised. This, in turn, has discouraged project developers from entering into new power purchase agreements.
This analysis appears to be wrong at pvXchange. It is mainly medium and large projects that would have been affected by the pandemic. Difficulties in the movement of workers from Eastern Europe disrupted construction sites. The supply of components and especially storage batteries was more difficult for large operations. The situation is better in the residential sector, as the company is local and the sites are local. The PV installation can be carried out and then the battery installation takes place.
In Germany, storage systems are enjoying growing popularity as if households were seeking energy independence and as if working from home had encouraged employees to give priority to their living space. The order books of many installers are full, which delays the start of construction work.
pvXchange points out that many companies have access to financing from investment platforms, with very reasonable interest rates.
In the longer term, however, the solar industry as a whole could benefit from the fallout of the pandemic. The coronavirus has led many regional governments to loosen their purse strings a little. Debt accumulation is no longer frowned upon.
Working at home may have increased productivity in many companies, which have reduced costs (no major trade shows, little travel). Digitisation, which was inevitable before the pandemic, has become widespread. It may even be that after the current general crisis, new well-skilled workers from other more disrupted industries will join the solar industry, which is facing a shortage of skilled workers.
https://www.pvxchange.com/en/market-analysis-october-2020-will-covid-19-continue-to-weigh-on-the-pv-industry
pvXchange of 16 October
* In 2019, the world's 30 largest EPC providers installed 28 GW of non-residential PV,
In 2019, the world's 30 largest EPC suppliers installed 28 GW of non-residential PV, representing 26% of the total market. This represents a 21% increase over 2018, says IHS Markit
No. 1 is PowerChina, which installed 2.5 GW (1 GW in China, 1 GW in Vietnam).
No. 2 is Sungrow which occupies 6% of the Chinese developer market.
More than 140 photovoltaic parks of more than 100 MW were connected in 2019, representing 30% of the global photovoltaic market (excluding residential systems), compared with 25% in 2018.
By country In China, the largest players (Sungrow, PowerChina and TBEA Xinjiang Sun Oasis) generated 13% (compared to 9% in 2018) of the 29 GW of non-residential power installed in the country.
In the United States, the five largest EPCs installed 27% of new non-residential PV capacity in 2019. Swinerton Renewable Energy remains the number one with 10% of the market. First Solar and Cypress Creek Renewables are withdrawing from the EPC market.
In India, the top five integrators accounted for 37% of PV installations. Azure Power has become the country's No. 1 PV system integrator.
In Spain, local players dominated the 5 GW installed last year in the country. The five largest commissioned 77% of the projects.
The 2020 ranking will be influenced by the health crisis and by the rise in panel prices in the middle of the year penalising low margin players. IHS Markit estimates that 100 GW of PV plants will be built in 2020, compared to 107 GW in 2019.
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/10/15/reshuffle-at-the-top-as-new-markets-arise/
PV Magazine of 15 October
NDLR The figures and rankings are significantly different from those of Wiki-Solar (Theworld's largest power plant developers and manufacturers) below.
* The world's largest developers and manufacturers of power plants
Wiki-Solar has published a list of the world's leading developers and manufacturers of large power plants. American and European companies have benefited from their dynamic domestic market. American, European and Indian companies continue to dominate the list of leading developer-builders.
The American company Swinerton Renewable Energy overtook its fellow US company First Solar at the top of the list, as the latter is scaling down its downstream activities. India retains four companies among the top 12 global companies.
The resumption of growth in unsubsidised projects in India has helped European companies in particular. The German EPCs Belectric, Enerparc and juwi have been in the top 10 for years. Spain's ACS Cobra climbed up the list with the construction of an 850 MWp power plant near Zaragoza.
In this ranking, several European companies have gained places such as Norway's Scatec, Greece's Biosar and Metka-EGN, Germany's BayWa re, the UK's RES, Spain's Gransolar and Elmya
This ranking must be put into perspective by the absence of Chinese construction companies due to the scarcity of information on the contributors to the project. Another point, Wiki-Solar only lists power plants of more than 4 MW-ac
https://wiki-solar.org/library/public/201013_Top-list_Utility-scale_solar_EPCs.pdf
Wiki-Solar of 13 October
Editor's note Another ranking has been carried out by IHS Markit (In 2019, the 30 largestsuppliers) above
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THE WORLD* Five European panel manufacturers with a big future
As post-pandemic economic recovery plans accelerate, the appeal of green jobs is growing. The solar industry is becoming strategically important. A multitude of European solar panel manufacturers are looking to step up a gear and offer the next generation of photovoltaic technology.
Meyer Burger5 GW objective of cells and panels
The company was for a long time an equipment manufacturer supplying machines to Chinese manufacturers. With the fall in prices, it decided to produce its own panels. A 400 MW line will be operational in the first half of 2021. The company hopes to reach 5 GW in 2026. It believes that the carbon footprint will be another attraction of its products.
EcoSolifer2 GW objective of wafers, cells and panels
This Swiss company opened a 100 MW heterojunction plant in Hungary last summer using Meyer Burger technology. It is planned to rapidly increase the plant's capacity to 350 MW before gradually reaching 2 GW over the next few years. It plans to use a series of European innovations including silicon wafers from Germany's NexWafe, which manufactures the super-thin silicon pieces needed for solar cells without using the dominant sawing method.
3Sun3.3 GW lens, cells and panels
The Italian 3Sun belongs to the giant Enel. In 2019, the company commissioned a 200 MW production line using heterojunction technology. Plans are underway to increase the capacity of the plant in Sicily to 3.3 GW by 2023-2024. Enel aims to increase the capacity of its solar power plants from 2.8 GW in 2019 to 8.8 GW in 2022. 40 GW are under consideration.
RCT Solutions5.5 GW lens, cells and panels
RCT Solution relies on a large number of equipment manufacturers (VDMA) and research institutes, including Fraunhofer ISE. It hopes to reach a capacity of 5 GW by 2023. RCT was the partner for the installation of a giga-plant in Turkey operated by Kalyon Solar.
Oxford PV : 10 GW lens, cells
Oxford PV has developed a transparent perovskite solar cell, which manufacturers can stack on top of an ordinary cell to benefit from additional power generation. A commercial production line is currently being installed in Germany, with the aim of commissioning the 125 MW by mid-2021. Among its shareholders are Meyer Burger, Equinor and the Chinese company Goldwind.
Oxford PV estimates that Chinese manufacturers will see the efficiency of their technology peak at 25.5%. To differentiate themselves, they will have to lower their prices by increasing their volume. Oxford's cells will increase production efficiency
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/5-would-be-giga-scale-solar-manufacturers
GreenTech Media of 14 October
Editor's note It's easy to make people believe in a bright future when you're at the starting point of production. All you have to do is make the prospects and objectives shine. During production, the constraints quickly become apparent and stand in the way of achieving the objective, all the more so as Chinese manufacturers are not going to allow a threatening European competitor to set up and develop. They will lower the prices to make the products, perhaps better than their European competitor, much too expensive. Until it disappears. Only customs duties or tariff protection can let these five companies put down enough roots to develop. This has always been the way the countries that have wanted to develop an industry have proceeded. Only uncultured European leaders are unaware of this. This is what India is doing right now to get out of China's dependence.
* New customs duties in the United States?
D. Trump would like to increase tariffs on solar cells and panels imported in the last year of these duties and wants to eliminate an exemption for double-sided solar panels. He has asked the US Trade Representative to assess whether the duties, set in 2018, should be extended when they are due to expire in 2022.
Since 2018, U.S. solar installations have continued to increase. Several manufacturers have set up shop in the US to sell duty-free.
The increase in tariffs from 15% to 18% in 2021, the extension of their duration and the inclusion of two-sided panels could pose difficulties for domestic solar installers. The American solar organisation SEIA, which announced disasters three years ago when the tariffs were introduced, says it will challenge such a decision by all means.
GreenTech Media of 12 October
Editor's note There are certainly more installers than manufacturers in the United States (and around the world). In keeping with the democratic principle, all countries should eliminate their industrial manufacturing in order to obtain cheaper imported panels from China. As in 2018, there is a debate between the short-term interest (obtaining panels at the lowest price) and the long-term interest of producing panels, which are temporarily more expensive, but which provide employment, national autonomy, and participation in the industrial future. Politicians who consider the short term, choose the easy way out. Statesmen see the interest of the country, even if it is temporarily unpopular.
One day we will have to consider how to offer work to all those who have been affected by the pandemic and who are undergoing reduced or suppressed activity. If, in addition, we prefer to leave jobs to foreigners (Chinese), it is necessary to explain how the French unemployed will be paid and how the purchase of signs abroad will be paid for. There is always the temptation to take the easy way out with a short-sighted policy.
* German equipment manufacturers in the 1st half of the year
German equipment manufacturers have been affected by the covid because it has prevented Chinese manufacturers from placing orders.
First quarter sales were down 50% in the first quarter of 2019 and 55% in the fourth quarter of 2019. Nevertheless, orders increased by 37% in the fourth quarter of 2019.
The covid effect continued in the second quarter, with a further 5% decline in the first quarter and a 53% drop over the April-June 2019 period. The decline in orders reached 70% in the second quarter.
Equipment manufacturers hope that the recovery of Chinese manufacturers will result in new orders in the second half of the year.
Asian orders accounted for 87% of business in the first quarterand 45% in the second. German equipment manufacturers hope that discussions on the rebirth of a European PV industry will reduce dependence on Chinese production lines.
PV Magazine of 14 October
* * Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) are expected to reach 300 MW in Germany in 2020
The health crisis interrupted the conclusion of PPAs. The rise in the price of electricity to €0.04 per kWh for 2021 woke up the market. New agreements were then concluded, according to the Enervis design office. All in all, the forecasts made at the beginning of the year will not be reached, but the level that will be reached is already substantial (300 MW, including a 187 MW power station built by EnBW).
Other contracts for 300 MW have been signed for commissioning in 2021. Other projects are seeking to be carried out in areas not eligible for public subsidies and have passed the first hurdle. The cumulative production of these projects is currently around 1 GW. Another 1 GW could be added this year.
Other studies want to combine old power plants (resulting from calls for tender) with new ones to be built without subsidies, which amounts to enlarging the old installations. The current fleet would be increased by 1 GW. Enervis estimates that 3.6 GW of unsubsidised PPA projects will be built by the end of 2022.
Investor interest in crisis-insensitive infrastructure and renewable energy projects has increased during the health crisis, especially PPAs.
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/10/14/german-solar-ppa-market-to-reach-300-mw-in-2020/
PV Magazine of 14 October
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THE PRODUCTS* A chemical product increases the efficiency of a panel by 20%.
SunDensity came up with the idea of coating the glass with a substance that changes photons from blue to red, allowing the PV panels to absorb them. The company claims that this increases energy production by 20% and that its product can be applied to any type of panel, from cadmium telluride to perovskite. By simplifying the coating materials, it will only add a few cents per watt to the cost of the panels.
SunDensity will spend $2.5 million to expand its technology beyond the laboratory. The company is already in negotiations with four major panel manufacturers and eight glass companies that have signed letters of intent for coated solar panels worth up to 1.5 gigawatts. SunDensity hopes to begin deliveries by mid-2022.
GreenTech Media of 14 October
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THE COMPANIES* The shares of the American company Array Technologies have just been listed on the stock exchange.
This is one of the most important introductions in recent years. Market capitalization reached $4.6 billion, with a price that climbed 65% on the first day to $36. The capital raised ($154 million) will be used to grow the company and invest in research and development.
The company is ranked 2nd in the world for followers with 17% of the world market (behind NEXTracker with 30%) and ahead of Soltec and China's Arctech Solar. The demand for trackers meets the developers' requirement to obtain the greatest amount of energy from their installation and the interest of investors in "green" energy. The world market for trackers is estimated at 3 billion dollars.
By 2019, 70% of new ground-based solar projects by power utilities in the US will be equipped with a tracker, compared with only 30% of projects worldwide.
By 2020, the demand for solar tracking systems will exceed sales of fixed-tilt systems for the first time, according to Wood Mackenzie. The overall value of the global tracker market will increase by 45% over the next five years, even as system costs fall. Trackers account for 10-15% of the construction cost of a ground-based solar energy project.
In 2020, Array announced a new mounting technology with First Solar that would significantly reduce the time it takes to attach the panel to the tracker. Array is also investing in machine learning of its equipment.
Characteristic figures of Array(https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2020/09/23/array-technologies-ipo-to-raise-100-million-6-takeaways-from-the-s-1/): in fiscal year 2019, the company achieved sales of $648 million (+123% over 2018). Operating profit reached $83 million (compared with a loss) and net profit of $39.8 million compared with a loss of $60.7 million).
In thefirst half of 2020, revenue reached $553 million (up 145 % in thefirst half of 2019); gross margin $141 million (up 225 % in 2019); operating profit of $103 million (up 604 %). Net profit was $76 million (versus a loss).
As of June 30, 2020, the company had installed 17 GW worldwide, including 14 GW in the United States, representing 30% of the total capacity of large facilities.
GreenTech Media of 15 October
By acquiring SN Power, for 1.1 billion dollars, the Norwegian company Scatec is considerably increasing its size in renewable energies (hydroelectricity, wind power and storage). The transaction will be completed in the second quarter of 2021.
Scatec has an operating capacity of 3.3 GW and expects to reach 4.5 GW by the end of 2021 (+ 33%).
Scatec has "several hundred megawatts" of wind power projects under development in Africa and South East Asia. It claims to be the largest solar operator in Africa with a photovoltaic capacity of around 1 GW.
SN Power's 2.5 GW portfolio includes hydropower, wind, storage and floating solar, installed on the reservoirs of some of its hydropower assets.
A 40 MW battery project in the Philippines will provide ancillary services to the grid as well as backup power for the hydropower itself. Scatec wants to connect a solar installation on any hydropower reservoir. Solar can provide energy during the day, and hydro can provide it at night.
GreenTech Media of 16 October
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