L R AS Published on Sunday 30 August 2020 - n° 329 - Categories:the manufacturers, on request
There would be no tension on panel supplies in the second half of the year.
From mid-July to early August, prices fell across Europe - perhaps for the last time this year. All indications are that the price decline in the first half of the year
will soon come to an end. Most manufacturers have either announced price increases of a few cents per watt for the fourth quarter or have already adjusted their price lists.
In Germany, the pace of new photovoltaic construction has not slowed down in recent months. The upper limit of 52 GW, previously set by the German federal government for EEG-funded systems, has already been exceeded. Now the race for available capacity is in full swing. Even the least attractive batches of polycrystalline panels with poor performance have now disappeared from the market.
At present, demand forecasts are contradictory. In Europe, photovoltaic installations are booming, at least in places where it is possible to work efficiently without the restrictions associated with coronavirus: high demand is expected. In China, demand is already expected to be booming, as incentive schemes have not yet been fully used this year: demand could absorb up to 40 GW, but this has not yet made itself felt on the world market.
The pandemic in North and South America also argues against any dramatic shortage of supply. The constant increase in the number of Covid-19 infections is posing problems for many companies. This is reflected in lower than expected installation figures. Some manufacturers report that some customers in the United States or Brazil are delaying or even cancelling deliveries.
Currently, manufacturers have no problem accepting deliveries in the last few months of the year. This makes it increasingly unlikely that planned volumes will actually be achieved.
The second wave of the covid could return in the wake of the summer travel season. Only China seems to have low figures. The crisis there is rarely mentioned in public. However, this lack of relapse does not seem very credible, given the conditions prevailing in the rest of the world. According to Chinese manufacturers, solar production has returned to normal - but do we really have the whole truth? Are the incidents reported so easily and so quickly (the press has reported fires and explosions at Daqo and GCL) not in fact local factory closures at several silicon producers due to new coronavirus epidemics, which the Chinese central government has ordered to be covered up?
How should developers react? A two-step approach is not a bad idea. For large projects or those that are not very price-sensitive, materials should be purchased immediately. For projects that are only attractive once prices have fallen, the spot market should be the preferred option. In the coming months, there will likely be a lot available that can be purchased at an attractive price.
https://www.pvxchange.com/en/market-analysis-august-2020-hot-summer-hotter-fall
pvXchange of 17 August
