l'Actualité du Solaire

The behaviour of the French was different during the confinement

What will remain of this attitude?

A reduction in electricity consumption of 10% to 20%.

The contribution of solar + wind power to electricity demand is no longer marginal.

Coal-fired power stations are now doomed

Solar growth remains exponential

Energy savings in buildings are still to be achieved.

Petroleum detoxification will wait because the batteries are not ready.

The text

In a country that has done nothing but count the number of its dead and draw attention to the flooding of hospital beds with disease, we have forgotten to look at the bright side of the situation as well.

We focused on the 26,000 deaths linked to this disease and forgot that 40,000 people disappear every year in France as a result of pollution. We forgot to count the savings of deaths on the roads during these two months of confinement since we have been driving much less.

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The behaviour of the French was different during the containment period.

We avoided watching the change in attitude of the French during these two months of confinement. They walked more in the street than before, when they took their vehicle. We forgot to say that they paid more attention to their neighbour; they greeted them without even knowing them. They went more to their local shops, and they ran less in the supermarkets, amplifying a movement of disinterest in hypermarkets. They agreed to buy more expensive local French products rather than imported ones. They have no longer changed their places of life to suit the festivities, bridges, invitations and occasions. They have remained, despite the good weather, in their usual homes. They have taken their home as a place to live. They were obliged to consider it, to examine it, to see the advantages as well as the disadvantages.

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What will remain of this attitude?

All this is only the result of impressions repeated many times, but these are not statistical findings. Attitudes have been changed during confinement. There is no guarantee that these changes introduced by confinement will persist afterwards, during the period of deconfinement. It cannot yet be said that physical distances will continue to be respected; that the absence of travel will be a new feature of life; or that cycling for short trips will be maintained. We can only say that the French have discovered a different way of life from their old way of life. What will remain of this in the near future? What will be the proportion of old habits compared to new behaviours? For the moment, we don't know.

This two-month period of confinement, which has been practised in more or less the same way in the different European countries, is already having important consequences.

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A drop in electricity consumption of 10% to 20%.

The lack of operation of many factories and of road or air transport has reduced the demand for electricity by 10% to 20%, depending on the country.

On the one hand This proportion is particularly low because one might have expected these production sites to occupy more space in the demand to the network, or even that (closed) shops would be more electricity intensive. This indicates that household demand is the main driver of electricity consumption.

On the other handThe confinement occurred during a particularly generous period of sunshine, which increased the production of solar energy. Thus, year on year, the contribution of solar energy has increased by almost half in the energy mix, even though the participation rate is still low.

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The contribution of solar + wind power to the demand for electricity is no longer marginal.

If we consider the contribution of solar + wind power, it accounts for almost half of the electricity demand in Germany (at 45%). This is almost a third in Spain (28%), the United Kingdom (32%) and Portugal (28%).

If we add hydropower, the share of renewable energy sources reaches 50% to 70% of electricity demand in Europe during these two months (France and the Netherlands stand out by being well below the European average). Portugal was probably the country that used the most RE during this period with a rate of 69%, of which 35% was hydropower.

This means, firstly, that electricity network managers had to adapt to intermittent production. What seemed impossible to achieve two years ago, professionals have done it. They found solutions at a time when no one had a choice... The power grid had to work.

Secondlywhich says 50-70% renewable energy, points out that fossil fuels accounted for only 30-50% of demand. They have become a minority. They have been used to make up for intermittencies and shortfalls in RE. Coal and gas have moved from being the main source of energy to being secondary. What a change! For example, in the United States, the contribution of RE to demand exceeded the contribution of coal and gas for forty days. In the first four months of 2020, there were 81 days with RE dominating the 160 days of the period! More significantly, while in 2019 the contribution of RE was marginal over the period, it becomes the first!

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Coal-fired power plants are now doomed

ThirdlyThe shutdown of coal-fired power stations for many periods or even days during the quarter heralds the death of these units. Every manager of these power stations has understood that the life of these generators is now limited. They are suspended and even condemned. What is expensive is to shut down and then restart coal-fired power generation. The operators of these units have lost a lot of money with these shutdowns and limited operating times. They realised that they had to stop operating these plants as soon as possible because they were going to lose a lot of money, with no hope of making them profitable in the future. There is no longer any need for the political authorities to set a deadline for operation. The facts force their closure. No matter how hard we try to delay their closure, reduce their costs, improve their yields, renewable energies have won. Modernity is needed. Admittedly, the reduction in electricity consumption has been favoured by the pandemic. Admittedly, demand may recover to previous levels, but there has been a glimpse of the trend towards the cessation of coal as an energy source.

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Solar growth remains exponential

Fourthlya phenomenon that had previously gone unnoticed. It explains both the rapid decline of coal and the emergence of solar and wind power. Solar energy is growing at an astonishing, astonishing and amazing rate.

According to IEA statistics for 2019, the IEA estimates the world's solar installations at 115 GW and the installed capacity at 629 GW. A quick calculation indicates that there have been 18% more solar installations worldwide in 12 months. This figure is underestimated because the 115 GW should be compared to the average for the year, i.e. (514 + 629) /2, which would result in a growth rate of 20%.

If we consider the German installations, the growth rate is 4 GW /50 GW, i.e. 8 %. In France, the 0.8 GW / 8 GW installed, represents a growth of 10% in a single year. These two growth rates for solar installations are almost ridiculous compared with those in Spain, the Netherlands, etc. It is certain that such a growth rate, which continues for years, can only bring renewable energies to the firmament. With or without environmentalists.

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Energy savings in buildings still to be achieved

If we consider that without much political action, but under the effect of the well understood interest of the leaders, solar and wind installations will continue to multiply, we can better understand the choice of the European Commission (if it is confirmed!) to privilege the renovation of buildings. Why want to encourage solar or wind energy installations when their rate of development is already very (too) fast and leads to economic disturbances that must be absorbed (disappearance of coal, compulsory reconversion of employment areas, launch of new activities). Speeding up the movement would be bad for social, economic and human stability. Above all, this movement must not be accelerated. It is already too fast.

Since individual electricity consumption is so important in national consumption, accounting for between 80% and 90% of electricity production, where can we act for the future? On buildings, and on energy savings. We have proof of this with France's difficulties in launching its RT 2020, which has become the RE 2021. Its implementation has already been postponed from 1 January 2021^to the summer of 2021. This shows that the professionals do not agree on the criteria, on the modalities, on how to reach the objective. Moreover, the absence of a precise date ("in the summer of 2021") underlines that the deadline will surely be postponed to 1 January 2022.

Acting on the energy consumption of buildings, as envisaged by the Commission, is the way to reduce energy needs, since residential dwellings contribute 21% of energy consumption and tertiary buildings 8%. This means that almost a third of the world's energy consumption comes from buildings in the broadest sense. It would be a mistake not to take an interest in this niche.

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Petroleum detoxification will wait because the batteries are not ready for use

The outraged reactions of some to this objective indicate that they would have preferred that the use of hydrocarbons be tackled: electricity is mainly used for individual and production purposes. Oil is little present (between 1% and 5%) in the production of electricity. It is mainly used for road, air and maritime transport. However, the world has not yet developed batteries with sufficient performance to use a vehicle in a way comparable to a petrol-powered car. Similarly, the cost of using batteries is still too high. Moreover, the durability of batteries has yet to be confirmed over time. It is too early to consider abandoning hydrocarbons. Whether we like it or not.

Thus, during the pandemic, renewable energies have earned their patent of intensive use and adaptability to the network despite their intermittency. This is already the case. Their propagation will continue with the reduction of the cost of the kilowatt-hour, with their acceptance, with their generalisation. Batteries need to improve. Perhaps we have to wait for a new pandemic or a new crisis to realise that RE + batteries have become frequent and indispensable?